Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We loves everyone's thoughts here so don't let some people get to you. I think you upset some weenies by saying the NAM would be OTS. I've been enjoying your posts. I haven't done a lot with PV, but it interests me. I agree Brian. One word and all hell broke loose. I think you really need to preface some of your posts on here. People are waaaaay to sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I'm going to hit the sack...good night and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We loves everyone's thoughts here so don't let some people get to you. I think you upset some weenies by saying the NAM would be OTS. I've been enjoying your posts. I haven't done a lot with PV, but it interests me. Yeah no I don't mind, I understand some folks want a monster, I do too. I was a little surprised when people jumped on me for simply analyzing the NAM as is. Instead of a good analysis everyone must have thought I was trolling. I like a good discussion, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Gonna be a long hour to wait for Euro....I'm exhausted tonight. Gonna try and get a little work done before that. What did you make of the GFS speeding things up 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What a disaster on the main thread... Haven't been in the Main since Regional implemented. Gibberish hard to read at least here it's more homegrown and pertinent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Never upset the weenies or provide them with something they don't want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah no I don't mind, I understand some folks want a monster, I do too. I was a little surprised when people jumped on me for simply analyzing the NAM as is. Instead of a good analysis everyone must have thought I was trolling. I like a good discussion, that's all. The monster will emerge but he saves his wrath for the SNE crew who will be waiting with their weenie staffs at full mast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dunno if this has been posted yet but did you all see the GFS ensemble mean? The Op is a complete outlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Was it really that bad? I was just trying to provide a little NAM analysis, not make a forecast based off it alone. I think it's a regional thing. People here understand what you say for us may not apply to say Bar Harbor, but down there they take everything as a personal afront. We all have to remember the backdrop for this is a 2-3' coast wide snowstorm. Every model will be held to that standard and comparison until the grim end (0z tonight or 12z thur) and even at that point it'd be another 24 hours before they stop comparing the old hit runs to the new less fun runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 baroclinic instability, please do stick around here! Sounds like you have some good stuff to share, and I don't venture onto the main page much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Was it really that bad? I was just trying to provide a little NAM analysis, not make a forecast based off it alone. Nah.....I'm just messn'....you strike me as someone who really knows your stuff. Pay no mind to me; I'm a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nah.....I'm just messn'....you strike me as someone who really knows your stuff. Pay no mind to me; I'm a clown. Definitely stay here, baroclinic. NE is much more accepting of knowledge and intelligent discussion/banter despite having some epic weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dunno if this has been posted yet but did you all see the GFS ensemble mean? The Op is a complete outlier! Link to the GFS Ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to the GFS Ensemble mean? He is exagerating imo.....the ens mean is a bit left of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to the GFS Ensemble mean? It's on page 64 of this very thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just to forewarn everyone in an effort to battle insomnia I just took my first ever ambien 20 minutes ago. Since then I've seen 1 elf, a couple of trolls and everything seems funnier. Very weird stuff, never tried it before, tripppyyy. May help to ease the EC death blow if it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the Op GFS was out to sea for us ... (ALB and VT I mean) You saying the ensemble mean is even further out to sea? Link to the GFS Ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My thoughts remain the same, but I am not jumping off the boat because of a few operational runs. Quite honestly, it is a very close call, and we are talking very small margins here whether or not the southern stream PV cuts off completely from the northern stream. A slower solution supports weak incipient cyclogenesis as the southern PV phases back with the northern stream near the GOM... this enhances the cold air advection towards the GOM instead of the EC. We don't want the trough curling inwards towards the EC coast like the GFS/NAM. If you look at the GFS/NAM, they barely hold onto a "phased" PV as it crosses the Rockies, and quite honestly, that is a higher order calculation models do poorly on. It is the same issue models struggle with regarding low amplitude wave phasing. They struggle with it, a lot. It is quite plausible the southern PV still cuts off like the ECM. This results in a much slower solution and prolonged CAA towards the GOM and trough amplification. This also develops the low level circulation over the GOM which enhances the positive feedback process through low level latent heat release/condensation. We need the GOM solution to play a role in a monster HECS/MECS event. In other words, it could very well be a fluke that the NAM/GFS don't cut off the southern PV as it crosses the Rockies because that process is highly sensitive to data assimilation by the numerical models. This is why they are 6-12 hours faster, and even a tiny detail such as this can result in massive changes in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just to forewarn everyone in an effort to battle insomnia I just took my first ever ambien 20 minutes ago. Since then I've seen 1 elf, a couple of trolls and everything seems funnier. Very weird stuff, never tried it before, tripppyyy. May help to ease the EC death blow if it comes. Need to give that to the wife to take, I hear the hubbys end up very happy........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My Mom used to take that stuff and she would be out cold fast. And if she did wake up during the night she would walk around like a drugged zombie. One day she was apparently still getting some effects from it early the next morning and blacked out driving and went off the road (no major injuries)..... Suffice to say its powerful stuff..so goodnight. Just to forewarn everyone in an effort to battle insomnia I just took my first ever ambien 20 minutes ago. Since then I've seen 1 elf, a couple of trolls and everything seems funnier. Very weird stuff, never tried it before, tripppyyy. May help to ease the EC death blow if it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Need to give that to the wife to take, I hear the hubbys end up very happy........... LOl this is some weird wild stuff. Really distorts a lot of things. And I feel like eating a couple of turkeys for some reason probably my avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just to forewarn everyone in an effort to battle insomnia I just took my first ever ambien 20 minutes ago. Since then I've seen 1 elf, a couple of trolls and everything seems funnier. Very weird stuff, never tried it before, tripppyyy. May help to ease the EC death blow if it comes. You will be sleeping in ten mins night night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro is off to the races.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just to forewarn everyone in an effort to battle insomnia I just took my first ever ambien 20 minutes ago. Since then I've seen 1 elf, a couple of trolls and everything seems funnier. Very weird stuff, never tried it before, tripppyyy. May help to ease the EC death blow if it comes. LOL. you should have waited until after the Euro run to take it. Now you'll be seeing Lakes cutters! hah I have had some minor sleeping issues over the last couple years. I take a benedryl if I can't fall asleep, and it seems to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very interested to see how this ECM run goes. Personally, the slower the better since it likely cuts off from the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro is off to the races.... Yes, And i don't know why i am still up....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very interested to see how this ECM run goes. Personally, the slower the better since it likely cuts off from the northern stream. My guess is a mod event to Boston and a cape cod crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I see the GGEM is way out to sea.... Yes, And i don't know why i am still up....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I see the GGEM is way out to sea.... The GEM is about as interesting as a bad case of genital warts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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