weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's also not at all phased. Well GFS came through amped, ensembles as well. If Euro is, we can toss CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's also not at all phased. Well GFS came through amped, ensembles as well. If Euro is, we can toss CMC. Don't we usually toss the CMC because it is the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Got it. Heading straight out. No one on the east coast gets decent snow. Should be passing our lattitude around 42/55-60 of that far west...lol Did we get a final report on the UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS ens must have some good hits in there because its almost the same as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am out to hour 60 now with the GFS ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My guess is that the EURO will have warning criteria snow up to Boston and a congrats Phil, en route to boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did we get a final report on the UK? I won't stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Don't we usually toss the CMC because it is the CMC? CMC and NOGAPS were horrendous with the last system - the one still effecting us now. At about this range it was in about the same position - showing nothing NW of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My guess is that the EURO will have warning criteria snow up to Boston and a congrats Phil, en route to boring. Will you believe it if it doesn't waver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS ENS has 984 passing literally 3 ph's outside the BM. It's better up here than it has been too. I'd love a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Per DT on the GGEM. No edit. th soithern stream s/w on the 0z dec 23 GGEM disppears at 36-48 hrs THAT is where the Model screws up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's better up here than it has been too. I'd love a few inches of snow. Have you gotten anything tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Does not suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Will you believe it if it doesn't waver? No, I'll maintain some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Will you believe it if it doesn't waver? I will if it meets with the ensembles just SE of the BM. The thing is I could see it doing a scott norwood at this point too in one of the most egregious cases of weenie brutality known to man. Right now, I'll say it again Don S looks to be setup FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 CMC and NOGAPS were horrendous with the last system - the one still effecting us now. At about this range it was in about the same position - showing nothing NW of the BM. NOGAPS shouldn't be alive. It routinely shows almost 0 qpf in NOAM during an active jet time in winter. It did that today and last night. I should never look at it but if it showed a storm and no one else did I'd have to find a way to believe it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 CMC and NOGAPS were horrendous with the last system - the one still effecting us now. At about this range it was in about the same position - showing nothing NW of the BM. completely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Don't forget we did lose one key RAOB right near this UL. That could be having some effect on ye models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 CMC and NOGAPS did an absolute horror job with the ocean storm that is still effecting us with snows. That was within 48 hours, most models had a complete miss, EURO and NAM and to an extent the GFS showed at least the fringe of the storm impacting the Cape and Islands withn 48 hours. 00z GFS ensemble means show a 989mb low south of nantucket, ma at hour 96, I think it is possible this may speed up in timing, but show the same type of intensity as the EURO has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow that GGEM run is ugly. NAM has the sharpest trough of the 0 Z runs. I'd sign right now for the GFS solution 50 mi west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NOGAPS shouldn't be alive. It routinely shows almost 0 qpf in NOAM during an active jet time in winter. It did that today and last night. I should never look at it but if it showed a storm and no one else did I'd have to find a way to believe it.... I distinctly remember it was right once in 1998. And that's not a joke, every dog has its day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is there alot of spread within the ensembles are no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Chairs will be tipped if the EURO is significantly east tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GEFS QPF puts the 0.75 line west of ORH it looks like, 0.5 to Mike and Pete in far western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Be back in the morning to check on the 00z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Chairs will be tipped if the EURO is significantly east tonight. Not here...I made sure I didn't get emotionally invested with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Chairs will be tipped if the EURO is significantly east tonight. Doubt it. Not with the GFS Ensm. mean where it just came in and where the 12z Euro Ensm. mean is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GEFS QPF puts the 0.75 line west of ORH it looks like, 0.5 to Mike and Pete in far western MA. Not problem with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the Euro comes in east I will show up at Kevin's house on Christmas morning wearing nothing but a Santa hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 again with the more JI waanna be .... the euro will have to chnage tonight idiot posters... didnt we see all of your guiys SCREAM this last nite for hours ? Missing the key point the southern s/w has GOT to be clsoe off or nearly close off the 0zz ggem and gfs do NOT have this the euro runs do the 18z gfs almost did southern closd 500 Low slower BIG storm... euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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