dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I hope that somewhere is a little east of Montauk. Well in this instance, We could use a solution way east if it was near detroit............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is a nice discussion Eh, Scott and I talked about the inevitability of the GFS to eventually lose this in the middle range days ago - it was expected. I don't know what he's talking about with "feed-back" there, though, because he doesn't define what process that involves; i.e., convection or whatever. Convective feedback does not appear to be this system's GFS modeled issue, however. I wrote a post a few minutes ago that scrolled too fast for anyone to see (most likely - and is a problem with the forum formatting imho) regarding what the GFS is having a problem doing: it can't seem to allow stream interaction and has a bias to not phase during certain time frames. Why that is may in fact be physics in the model - duh - as he alludes, but that is different than convective feedback. Having said that, this storm will likely find a way to break your heart because that is what the weather does best - so you can hang your hat on feeling a sharp tingling sensation regardless of how exactly it bends you over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My guess is we hone in on a more classic typical but sweet Nor'easter with the 8-12 type for all with the Lollies for the typical NORH SNNH counties. Now your talking, Screw the bombs, A good ole fasihon Nor'easter that tracks just inside the benchmark into the GOM............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Eh, Scott and I talked about the inevitability of the GFS to eventually lose this in the middle range days ago - it was expected. I don't know what he's talking about with "feed-back" there, though, because he doesn't define what process that involves; i.e., convection or whatever. Convective feedback does not appear to be this system's GFS modeled issue, however. I wrote a post a few minutes ago that scrolled too fast for anyone to see (most likely - and is a problem with the forum formatting imho) regarding what the GFS is having a problem doing: it can't seem to allow stream interaction and has a bias to not phase given certain time frames. What that is may in fact be physics in the model - duh - as he alludes, but that is different than convective feedback. Having said that, this storm will likely find a way to break your heart because that is what the weather does best - so you can hang your hat on feeling sharp tingling sensation regardless of how exactly it bends you over. The GFS has a known bias of shearing out the southern stream. It was discussed on the radio show last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What does everyone think the Euro will do today? Probably asking for negativity by asking this but so be it Similar to yesterday's 12z with a bit of a shift SE toward the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM looks good to me. Will be a biggie. A lot of positive on the NAM, except for the 50/50 low holding tough. Heights are much more suppressed on the east coast and west Atlantic than I'd like to see. The 50/50 low is a solid 300 miles SW of the 21/12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now your talking, Screw the bombs, A good ole fasihon Nor'easter that tracks just inside the benchmark into the GOM............ With this storm though.. there is so much phase potential that it will be bomb or nothing It it goes to the GOM someone is getting 2' and that is a bomb... the only way we get a mod event if its a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The GFS has a known bias of shearing out the southern stream. It was discussed on the radio show last night. It also has a known sucking bias at this range. Johns point about there being something in the works.....I think what's going on is the models are trying to figure out if this stays south or gets scooted out to see. They cannot resolve anything in between effectively which is why we see such extremes. And I'll say it again, all that missing airplane data across the atlantic and into europe ain't helping. The EC probably has the best network of data of any model out there and it's been cut off from it for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A lot of positive on the NAM, except for the 50/50 low holding tough. Heights are much more suppressed on the east coast and west Atlantic than I'd like to see. The 50/50 low is a solid 300 miles SW of the 21/12z Euro. Right, didnt want to imply a biggie here, just that I dont see the GFS weak low moving past Bermuda. A trough moving in from the NE usually isn't great for storms coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think this is where we see the gfs start a huge jump west if we are going by classic gfs modelling.. lose it at 120 bring it back at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now your talking, Screw the bombs, A good ole fasihon Nor'easter that tracks just inside the benchmark into the GOM............ I will take anything at this point. Was able to get a nice surprise with the storm that was out to sea I would rather go with a Nor'easter than hopeing for a monster once in a season type storm. A bunch of good storms is always better than one monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Third round, 3rd inverted trough. We desperately need to move that low east. You definitely dont want to see a band of snow rotating south from ME into eastern MA when we're trying to get a nor'easter up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now your talking, Screw the bombs, A good ole fasihon Nor'easter that tracks just inside the benchmark into the GOM............ This is what im hoping for also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Guesses on 12z gfs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It also has a known sucking bias at this range. Johns point about there being something in the works.....I think what's going on is the models are trying to figure out if this stays south or gets scooted out to see. They cannot resolve anything in between effectively which is why we see such extremes. And I'll say it again, all that missing airplane data across the atlantic and into europe ain't helping. The EC probably has the best network of data of any model out there and it's been cut off from it for days. Do you have a source for this? I don't see it mentioned at HPC or any local WFO's. Also, not sure how missing ACARS data from Europe would have any affect on our weather here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'd be cautiously optimistic with it because at least we see real signs it is breaking with the GFS. I'd imagine too little too late around here, but any positive sign is welcome. I think we'll be able to predict whether the 12Z ECMWF is going to lose this east...by looking at the models that precede it for some true signs that they are starting to trend in its direction. We'll have a pretty good idea by 1:00 PM if the Euro can stand alone or not. The time has come for other models start catching on if the Euro is to score the coup. NAM looks good to me. Will be a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 CT Blizz - my prediction for the 12z Euro is another near triple phaser that despite stalling around delmarva still delivers 2"+ qpf to boston and SNE. :weenie: Anyone with access to the euro - can you compare similar times of the 12Z NAM and 0Z Euro to see if the distance between the 50/50 and the S/W is any different? From what I was reading, there was great consternation and gnashing of teeth over confluence in the northeast during that run as well but the 50/50 jumped out just in time for the big hit it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We need that Newfie pig to get out of there. I'm pretty sure it is hanging around longer than the models thought a few days ago. We're getting backed into a corner where the only way we can get a good storm is with the Euro idea of pooling the energy and closing it off in the south. Any other scenario gets crushed right under the pig. Do you have a source for this? I don't see it mentioned at HPC or any local WFO's. Also, not sure how missing ACARS data from Europe would have any affect on our weather here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We desperately need to move that low east. You definitely dont want to see a band of snow rotating south from ME into eastern MA when we're trying to get a nor'easter up here I wouldn't worry about that of all things...after the Euro slows things down even more today...I'm sure we'll have until New Year's Day to get that low out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It also has a known sucking bias at this range. Johns point about there being something in the works.....I think what's going on is the models are trying to figure out if this stays south or gets scooted out to see. They cannot resolve anything in between effectively which is why we see such extremes. And I'll say it again, all that missing airplane data across the atlantic and into europe ain't helping. The EC probably has the best network of data of any model out there and it's been cut off from it for days. Ah, what - come again? 'cut off for days'; what is that all about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Do you have a source for this? I don't see it mentioned at HPC or any local WFO's. Also, not sure how missing ACARS data from Europe would have any affect on our weather here... It's not just from europe. I posted the link on last nights thread. Tons of transatlantic flights coming into the US have been cancelled/delayed/rerouted. Yesterday it was 1/3 of all flights out of Heathrow alone. There's a ton of missing data over the E US and all the way across the atlantic. In my eyes that's some of the most valuable data too. Someone should dig out verification scores around the time of the Iceland volcano. The EC claims about 45k data points a day. The HPC best I could find, well...it's one page: http://amdar.noaa.gov/RR_amdar/7day_stats.cgi I do not believe it's anywhere near the same number input into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here we go.. 12z gfs initiallizing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ah, what - come again? 'cut off for days'; what is that all about? The Euro amdar network appears to be the best in the biz providing up to 45k sample points a day for ingestion into their models. With the flights not flying all across Europe for many days (22k flights were cancelled Monday alone), and a lot of transatlantic flights not taking place there's an information gap for sure. They tweaked the model as this data network grew, and right now it's not getting the same sample size it was getting 10 days ago. The best comparison would be to look at the iceland volcano - verification around that time. We didnt have this extreme weather then either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The GFS has a known bias of shearing out the southern stream. It was discussed on the radio show last night. yea I'm sure you guys did; I was unavailable to tune into that - I'll try to catch the next one. It's pretty glaringly obvious to 101 synoptics versus modeling that the GFS is doing that - agreed. Just seem incapable to phase at D5. Sometimes that pays off, making it even more excruciating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What an absolute joke that is over in the UK. They got 4 (maybe 5 inches tops) and the airport is messed up for like four days. LOL It's not just from europe. I posted the link on last nights thread. Tons of transatlantic flights coming into the US have been cancelled/delayed/rerouted. Yesterday it was 1/3 of all flights out of Heathrow alone. There's a ton of missing data over the E US and all the way across the atlantic. In my eyes that's some of the most valuable data too. Someone should dig out verification scores around the time of the Iceland volcano. The EC claims about 45k data points a day. The HPC best I could find, well...it's one page: http://amdar.noaa.go.../7day_stats.cgi I do not believe it's anywhere near the same number input into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's not just from europe. I posted the link on last nights thread. Tons of transatlantic flights coming into the US have been cancelled/delayed/rerouted. Yesterday it was 1/3 of all flights out of Heathrow alone. There's a ton of missing data over the E US and all the way across the atlantic. In my eyes that's some of the most valuable data too. Someone should dig out verification scores around the time of the Iceland volcano. The EC claims about 45k data points a day. The HPC best I could find, well...it's one page: http://amdar.noaa.go.../7day_stats.cgi I do not believe it's anywhere near the same number input into the US. Thanks. Interesting.....I would think that data from the PAC and CAN is more important for this particular storm, but whatever.....we'll find out soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Read this....think there's no doubt adding the data helped...now remove a portion of it at a critical time. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/aemp/documents/AMDAR-10/documents/Doc.3.5.1_14.HUN.doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yea I'm sure you guys did; I was unavailable to tune into that - I'll try to catch the next one. It's pretty glaringly obvious to 101 synoptics versus modeling that the GFS is doing that - agreed. Just seem incapable to phase at D5. Sometimes that pays off, making it even more excruciating... Why can it phase from days 6-8 tho? Like it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Guys BTW not saying its effecting one model more than the other. As a total example if the GFS normally inputs 300 points of data and 30 are missing, that's a bigger deal than the EC losing 1000 out of 45k. I dont know the hard numbers. All I'm saying is it's a potential explanation to some of the challenges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why do I have a sinking feeling things just aren't gonna go our way today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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