Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can't extrapolate that far out, but I don't think it's all that bad for 84 hr NAM. Hopefully I awake to some nice trends. I've got to tell you I think we get absolutely crushed based on the NAM. I worry a little about this being a tuck job like some earlier models, but to me with the energy riding down this thing will be a beast. I think what some are reacting to over there is that it's probably shifted north some. This would be one of those deals where precip just thunders due north from the atlantic. I'd be worried about ptype issues down my way potentially but geez louise, BEAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can't extrapolate that far out, but I don't think it's all that bad for 84 hr NAM. Hopefully I awake to some nice trends. Yeah I think that would get us later in the run...esp eastern areas. It looks like one of the "Wide turn, late hook" scenarios unfolding on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The baroclinic zone is also closer to the coast as well with low development going on over NC/SC...I would think storm would ride right up along the baroclinic zone. This is one thing I'd definitely watch on the NAM b/c the NAM usually picks up on this feature a bit better than other models. Great observation Wiz and something that definitley bears watching. I've been bullish on a NW trend all day and I'm holding to that until the models scream otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I think that would get us later in the run...esp eastern areas. It looks like one of the "Wide turn, late hook" scenarios unfolding on the NAM. Still no mixing issues though due to the strength of the storm though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 that baroclinic guy is cracking me up. He's a smart guy, but he seems to come from a different line of meteorological philosophy. He's a PV (potential vorticity) thinker. I don't think I've seen anyone else on these forums throwing around PV anomalies before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Seriously. If you were just comparing the late sfc maps with previous guidance you'd think not much change. I know Ray loves H5, but it took a totally different route aloft to get to the destination. Brian, I joke about that, but by all means.....indulge us if you pick something up; I suck with H5 analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Okay--I'm out at 50 pages. If this thread is locked and there's a new thread started by the time I get up in 6 hours, I will know I better gas up the snow blower. Think snow, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I think that would get us later in the run...esp eastern areas. It looks like one of the "Wide turn, late hook" scenarios unfolding on the NAM. Could only help up here.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Brian, I joke about that, but by all means.....indulge us if you pick something up; I suck with H5 analysis. You've been trying to pick up a few things...that's good, but we all know all you care about is qpf..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You are lucky Blizz is in his footie pjs dreaming about pingers... He hates that word... - wary At 72 it looks ok to me... a little elongated maybe? And I used it deliberately figuring he was up on his phone reading this and would spaz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Alright good luck to all. Weenies crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Okay--I'm out at 50 pages. If this thread is locked and there's a new thread started by the time I get up in 6 hours, I will know I better gas up the snow blower. Think snow, everyone. Shoot... one more thing to do on Sunday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I think that would get us later in the run...esp eastern areas. It looks like one of the "Wide turn, late hook" scenarios unfolding on the NAM. How much is riding on that beast of a low up north to move out E a little quicker or weaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You've been trying to pick up a few things...that's good, but we all know all you care about is qpf..lol. I def. have a QPF fetish, but you must admit that last winter H5 meant squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How much is riding on that beast of a low up north to move out E a little quicker or weaken? The one that is N-NW, or the NE one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL, I thought that as well. I want to know what the heck happened to the southern vort. It went poof, like Ray's undees. yeah i know. seems like it had some minor interaction with the northern stream over the southern great plains and it essentially just shredded it. odd given how all other products have kept that feature so distinct for a lot longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I should probably be 5-day banned for saying this but with what we saw evolve on the NAM from 72-84 HR if this run went out to 90 I would think we would see some pretty rapid cyclogenesis occur between 84 and 90 HR...already have your 850mb low developing and the s/w is beginning to take on a negative tilt. You also have a very nice MLJ streak rounding down the left side of the trough towards the base of it. Very impressed with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I def. have a QPF fetish, but you must admit that last winter H5 meant squat. Everyone has their fetishes, Kevin has a JB fetish, I have a NAM fetish, Rex Ryan and his wife have a feet fetish...it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The one that is N-NW, or the NE one? NE of the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I think that would get us later in the run...esp eastern areas. It looks like one of the "Wide turn, late hook" scenarios unfolding on the NAM. Good analogy. I think it'd be a little more severe than the 18z GFS though based on 5h. What will be very interesting is to see if the EC jumps ship on the timing. Obviously it would appear the entire solution would change if that is the case. Expectations for the "day after tommorrow" may have to be adjusted for some well SW pending the EC, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Seriously. If you were just comparing the late sfc maps with previous guidance you'd think not much change. I know Ray loves H5, but it took a totally different route aloft to get to the destination. yeah it's night and day really. the vort in question did go right over NKX at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Without a doubt the upstream is juiced. Those poor people in the SW US. ~100 year deluge. Just saw a clip of a Vegas parking garage, looked like someone opened a hydrant. 10 FEET of snow in th mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah i know. seems like it had some minor interaction with the northern stream over the southern great plains and it essentially just shredded it. odd given how all other products have kept that feature so distinct for a lot longer Elsewhere it was stated the Van AFB RAOB was not used at 0z. That could well have an effect who knows. It is interesting that the NAM has sped up to the point it's identical in speed at the surface as the 18z GFS. Isn't a known bias of the EC to hold back energy in the SW too long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Expectations for the "day after tommorrow" may have to be adjusted for some well SW pending the EC, IMO. based on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Elsewhere it was stated the Van AFB RAOB was not used at 0z. That could well have an effect who knows. It is interesting that the NAM has sped up to the point it's identical in speed at the surface as the 18z GFS. Isn't a known bias of the EC to hold back energy in the SW too long? it was a bias...i don't know if it still applies or not since all of the upgrades in the last 18 to 24 months. i'll tell ya what i think its new bias is...microcanes on the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 based on the NAM? That the GFS and : "One of the main model biases with the ECMWF model is that it tends to overdevelop mid-level and upper-level cyclones across the southwestern United States. The reason for this is that the model is not fast enough to move a system out from the desert southwest and actually slows the system down and further develops it in place. If there's no glaring error evident and the others still stick with this type of faster solution I'll toss the EC but that's just my opinion, that and a nickel will get you nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Good analogy. I think it'd be a little more severe than the 18z GFS though based on 5h. What will be very interesting is to see if the EC jumps ship on the timing. Obviously it would appear the entire solution would change if that is the case. Expectations for the "day after tommorrow" may have to be adjusted for some well SW pending the EC, IMO. We have a derailment further south for thomas the train..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it was a bias...i don't know if it still applies or not since all of the upgrades in the last 18 to 24 months. i'll tell ya what i think its new bias is...microcanes on the eastern seaboard. LOL, true. I'm pretty sure it's still an issue. It quite often has the support of the NAM at least initially which does the same thing. That's why this big shift doesn't surprise me - again so long as we see the CMC and maybe UKMET follow suit I think the EC may jump the other way. Anyway, back to family and radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure all of what's been said but the 00z NAM should inspire - more amplitude as the relay off the Pacific is beginning with the southern stream, helping to pull in the northern stream phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We have a derailment further south for thomas the train..........lol I don't think the NAM was bad for us at all. I think it's likely to be a monster. We've all seen this before as Phil mentioned it's fascinating that despite an entirely different evolution the ground result is similar. That's where John's teleconnections come in. The NAM to me says Don S FTW. But we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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