Yukon Cornelius Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IMHO he is one of the better New England broadcast mets. He does let the weenie in him get loose from time to time, though (who doesn't?) I do enjoy the tech part because he describes the models well while showing the models... sort of like having the radio show on with the models being flipped by the mets for you... Earlier you mentioned wound up storms ticking west... is this something you read about, just remembered (or dreamed about ), or that is explained in some other way? That was good. I also do agree that he does a great job of explaining what your looking at, and he really seems to break it down in layman's terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I seem to remember something about the tendency for wound up coastals tucking in tighter than model forecasts. Don't know if it's an axiom or old wives tale. the next 2 model cycles will be the most important runs of our lives. just when i was going to go to bed you say this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just thought Boston always mixed during snowstorms. no not always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I salute you Paul. That is a great attitude. Wish more where like that. Now when are you going back to School? Damn boy sign up for a scholarship or something! Severe discuss' is second to none! Sorry for the OT The past few days I've been reading up on some stuff about models from theweatherprediction.com (EXCELLENT site) as well. As far as school goes I'm going to really work on getting what I owe paid off this winter so I can start next fall, this is a must. As far as the NAM goes it's certainly much different but too me there doesn't seem to really be much of a difference than the 12z run...granted there are differences but nothing too the extreme of 0z vs. 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Whether you believe what the NAM is selling or not, it adds another dimension of intrigue for the rest of the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I seem to remember something about the tendency for wound up coastals tucking in tighter than model forecasts. Don't know if it's an axiom or old wives tale. the next 2 model cycles will be the most important runs of our lives. Lol. I belive they do tuck in--the challenge here as many have stated,is that it bombs and stalls too far south. That's keeping the heavier qpf below a sw-ne line which has been shifting se the last few runs. At least as far as the EC goes. It's shift has primarily been south. So, if a EC-esque version were to come to fruition, hopefully the bombing/stall will take place south of Long Island. At least as far as western areas and those further north are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well based on what I hear, I trust the NAM up to 48hrs.. beyond that who knows.. jump ball.. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IDK...maybe it's just me but this really doesn't seem all that bad. Looks like by 72 HR it's really starting to try and dig there in the SE and it looks much better with the ridge in the west...not as "flat" looking as 18z. Also moving the 50/50 low north and east a bit which is good, especially if we are to see faster timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well based on what I hear, I trust the NAM up to 48hrs.. beyond that who knows.. jump ball.. wtf First the NAM has to be viewed with a weary eye due to the mega change. Second it's happening very early in the run which will raise confidence if others support it. Third I don't think this is bad for us at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 First the NAM has to be viewed with a weary eye due to the mega change. Second it's happening very early in the run which will raise confidence if others support it. Third I don't think this is bad for us at all. Agreed! Glad someone else said this Doesn't make me feel as crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Model thread is a joke tonight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude will help us verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude will help us verbatim. Very nice looking jet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Agreed! Glad someone else said this Doesn't make me feel as crazy. I'm no H5 analysis expert, but I think even using Sam's NAM Extrapolation Method it would turn out favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude will help us verbatim. If we can combine north with EC verocity.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Model thread is a joke tonight..... that baroclinic guy is cracking me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the nam actually looks really good in my opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude will help us verbatim. Longitude will help Phil or all of us; if this run portends 2' for cc and 10" here, I hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Longitude will help Phil or all of us; if this run portends 2' for cc and 10" here, I hate it. Can't extrapolate that far out, but I don't think it's all that bad for 84 hr NAM. Hopefully I awake to some nice trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was comparing 12Z -> 18Z -> 0Z and the trend is good. the nam actually looks really good in my opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The baroclinic zone is also closer to the coast as well with low development going on over NC/SC...I would think storm would ride right up along the baroclinic zone. This is one thing I'd definitely watch on the NAM b/c the NAM usually picks up on this feature a bit better than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 that baroclinic guy is cracking me up. Let's just say there is a little "over analysis" going on in there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 First the NAM has to be viewed with a weary eye due to the mega change. Second it's happening very early in the run which will raise confidence if others support it. Third I don't think this is bad for us at all. You are lucky Blizz is in his footie pjs dreaming about pingers... He hates that word... - wary At 72 it looks ok to me... a little elongated maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is not bad at all. You have a closed H5 low in the Oh valley, big vortmax rounding the base of the trough over the southeast, and a strong jet on the back side of this trough. Stronger jet on the backside means digging. This storm looks to come north and longitude will help us verbatim. i think it's funny how guidance can sometimes yield similar sensible wx outcomes to other op runs using very different ways of getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's just say there is a little "over analysis" going on in there..... I'm pretty good at under-analyizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Very nice looking jet! That depiction just screams "KU" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Verbatim maybe its still a Cape Cod mauler and light/moderate event for a lot of SNE, but all I care about is trend on an 84 hour NAM. I'm pretty good at under-analyizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i think it's funny how guidance can sometimes yield similar sensible wx outcomes to other op runs using very different ways of getting there. LOL, I thought that as well. I want to know what the heck happened to the southern vort. It went poof, like Ray's undees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i think it's funny how guidance can sometimes yield similar sensible wx outcomes to other op runs using very different ways of getting there. Seriously. If you were just comparing the late sfc maps with previous guidance you'd think not much change. I know Ray loves H5, but it took a totally different route aloft to get to the destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm pretty good at under-analyizing. You are and it serves you well......sage wisdom for others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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