Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be a weird run...lol just a hair different than the globals. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be a weird run...lol Does not look to be digging as far south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 lets hope we have as good day on thursday as today with the model runs then we will be on to something i hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 From my inexperienced eyes, it appears that (at least by hour 54) the phase will be occurring sooner, and maybe further north. That being said...there doesn't appear to be as much consolidated energy diving down the backside of the trough. Or perhaps it's just further south already. Blah, I just leave this analysis to the mets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm still on the look out for a trend nw. I don't think that can be completely ruled out when we our 120 hrs or so, from the potential event. I won't be around for the later 00z arrivals, but hopefully they continue a nice trend. I'd kill for a nw trend....I'd trade 20" and taint for the conundrum with which I now face....high cirrus loom 70 mi N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Does not look to be digging as far south.... good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be a weird run...lol What do you think? NW trend commencing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If anything the 0z NAM looks more like the 12z run than it does the 18z run...through 48 HR anyway. It's the NAM. You can pick up the subtle differences in placement of 5H at 48h. Faster, almost neutral with alot of northern energy disjointed and not as strong, late to phase maybe. But then again it's the NAM (OUT OF IT'S RANGE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Good disco, don't know anything about him but have watched his vids from time to time. Like the fact he said he thinks this could easily wrap up and tuck in closer to the coast. Nice to have a high pressure feeding cold air in for a change. IMHO he is one of the better New England broadcast mets. He does let the weenie in him get loose from time to time, though (who doesn't?) I do enjoy the tech part because he describes the models well while showing the models... sort of like having the radio show on with the models being flipped by the mets for you... Earlier you mentioned wound up storms ticking west... is this something you read about, just remembered (or dreamed about ), or that is explained in some other way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What is happening with the energy at 54 HR? Is it getting sheared apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'd kill for a nw trend....I'd trade 20" and taint for the conundrum with which I now face....high cirrus loom 70 mi N. So what are we going to kill, I'm in.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM is so much faster this is an entirely new solution. It's moved the storm up by a day or so. I mean precip isn't far away at 60 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be a weird run...lol Henceforth, No mention till Friday! Right LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's the NAM. You can pick up the subtle differences in placement of 5H at 48h. Faster, almost neutral with alot of northern energy disjointed and not as strong, late to phase maybe. But then again it's the NAM (OUT OF IT'S RANGE) Not sure why I'm investing so much effort into this. But then again the only way for me to get better at understanding models and such is if I just continue to look at each run and try to read them with the best of my knowledge than add onto the knowledge by reading what others have to say and such. So I guess in the end there is a purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM is so much faster this is an entirely new solution. It's moved the storm up by a day or so. I mean precip isn't far away at 60 hours now. I dnt like faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IMHO he is one of the better New England broadcast mets. He does let the weenie in him get loose from time to time, though (who doesn't?) I do enjoy the tech part because he describes the models well while showing the models... sort of like having the radio show on with the models being flipped by the mets for you... Earlier you mentioned wound up storms ticking west... is this something you read about, just remembered (or dreamed about ), or that is explained in some other way? I was commenting earlier how living on the coast I was always aware of the real monster storms having a more W tendency within 24 hours of the event. Certainly not a given but many a time I watched Cambridge mix when the day before we were thinking all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I dnt like faster. You'd agree until supported by at least one of the other key models we really have to question this timing change. This is a momentus change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So what are we going to kill, I'm in.........lol No kitty cats. I'm ok if we off a puppy or two. Before people write off the NAM because it shows them something that is different (read: that they lose snow on) keep in mind it pegged tonight's event before other guidance. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I dnt like faster. No, But i would take it further NW with a later phase before occlusion........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM is so much faster this is an entirely new solution. It's moved the storm up by a day or so. I mean precip isn't far away at 60 hours now. maybe ct can get a white xmas after all but its only wed so nothing is in stone the way its been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I mean geez, it's so much faster we'd have virga Christmas afternoon. Holy cow what a change. Some model FAIL...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks a bit faster with the flow aloft...could explain the faster movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 No, But i would take it further NW with a later phase before occlusion........ Vehemently agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IMHO he is one of the better New England broadcast mets. He does let the weenie in him get loose from time to time, though (who doesn't?) I do enjoy the tech part because he describes the models well while showing the models... sort of like having the radio show on with the models being flipped by the mets for you... Earlier you mentioned wound up storms ticking west... is this something you read about, just remembered (or dreamed about ), or that is explained in some other way? I seem to remember something about the tendency for wound up coastals tucking in tighter than model forecasts. Don't know if it's an axiom or old wives tale. the next 2 model cycles will be the most important runs of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM may have sped up the system, but it's taking it's sweet time being updated!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Before people write off the NAM because it shows them something that is different (read: that they lose snow on) keep in mind it pegged tonight's event before other guidance. Just saying. I guess for mesoscale events it can be useful, but as far as predicting large scale synoptics out of its range...that's a big roll of the die! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure why I'm investing so much effort into this. But then again the only way for me to get better at understanding models and such is if I just continue to look at each run and try to read them with the best of my knowledge than add onto the knowledge by reading what others have to say and such. So I guess in the end there is a purpose. I salute you Paul. That is a great attitude. Wish more where like that. Now when are you going back to School? Damn boy sign up for a scholarship or something! Severe discuss' is second to none! Sorry for the OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM may have sped up the system, but it's taking it's sweet time being updated!! Its out to 75............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was commenting earlier how living on the coast I was always aware of the real monster storms having a more W tendency within 24 hours of the event. Certainly not a given but many a time I watched Cambridge mix when the day before we were thinking all snow. I just thought Boston always mixed during snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the NAM I think might be ready to get epic 66 and beyond. Screamer coming down from central canada. Tempest time, fascinating to watch but what a timing change. reminscent of 1/25 if it indeed occurs in that models were focusing on the wrong spokes at the wrong times. That's the first time I ever invoked 1/25 btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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