Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did anyone notice that the GFS is still about one day ahead of the Euro (at least 18 hours) with this whole event.... I suppose the timing will converge as we get closer. -SN here and heavy heavy winds ...so not sure if I'll ever know what falls. 22F. Ginxy, been out all day. You guys sure have been adding pages like there's no tomorrow. Went back and read through the posts made as the Euro came out. What's your take? Euro looks good to me already and I have a suspicion this could get better here as we get closer. This sure looks like a good ol' fashioned bomb to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did anyone notice that the GFS is still about one day ahead of the Euro (at least 18 hours) with this whole event.... I suppose the timing will converge as we get closer. -SN here and heavy heavy winds ...so not sure if I'll ever know what falls. 22F. Yes, I think it's simply bigger/stronger=slower. We should get increasing clarity tonight. Really for all the ruminations it was a good day. The wide right outliers mostly came left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Agree especially at 980 or below. Going to be a blast to watch evolution of this. Doesn't take much to make big changes. If it exists the east coast a little further north than current modeling and maybe we get a more northerly occlusion. Small changes can make the difference whether we get warning criteria back to Logan 11 and a period of pingers all the way to Rt 128. I'm going to enjoy watching the tendency of the atmosphere on the water vapor images over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did anyone notice that the GFS is still about one day ahead of the Euro (at least 18 hours) with this whole event.... I suppose the timing will converge as we get closer. -SN here and heavy heavy winds ...so not sure if I'll ever know what falls. 22F. Rick, its about 6 hours in terms of sensible wx from the onset but GFS ends it much quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did anyone notice that the GFS is still about one day ahead of the Euro (at least 18 hours) with this whole event.... I suppose the timing will converge as we get closer. -SN here and heavy heavy winds ...so not sure if I'll ever know what falls. 22F. Hey Rick, I've intentionally been trying too only keep loose tabs on this 'event'. If the threat survives another few model runs I'll take it seriously. That said, the plot continues to thicken. The only thing that would surprise me at this point is if today's 12z Euro depiction was the one that in the end verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Must say it's good to be home to which I'm now able to see graphics. I use my cell phone when I'm at work. No internet use from the workstation. The dialogue and discussions today are one for the ages. The descriptions of each model and timeframe where presented as if Picaso was painting a picture. So here I am commuting home and this young guy sits down I could not help but look at the document he was reading. I started my conversation by saying Earth Science, Meteorology, MIT? My god this guy actually a Professor was reading a tech manual on Heat Transport and interaction of Land and Ocean. Brief but stimulating conversation. Heck it was so far over my head...most is, not because of interest but lack of studying. I invited him to the board. He gave me the heads up on a new website that MIT will be publishing within the next year. A cloud-type computer server system (huge computing power) with an interface that willl allow the user to plug in any parameter for any length of time. I think Univ.of Wyoming has something similar. Good stuff I just had to share. I'm stoked for a big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did anyone happen to watch Matt Noyes technical disco (6:40 PM) on his website? Very interesting. He seems much more favorable of a decent event (poss blizz?) than last week before the models fizzled. Good illustration of the amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did anyone happen to watch Matt Noyes technical disco (6:40 PM) on his website? Very interesting. He seems much more favorable of a decent event (poss blizz?) than last week before the models fizzled. Good illustration of the amplification Yea I watched it, liked what he had to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure I really love the new NAM for the Monday event. It's changing up the timing a little, but that may not be bad. Too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not sure I really love the new NAM for the Monday event. It's changing up the timing a little, but that may not be bad. Too early to tell. is kinda early no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 is kinda early no? Not for some of the dynamics out west...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not for some of the dynamics out west...... well, I don't expect a big jump on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 will it come to close and warm for some change over to rain for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not for some of the dynamics out west...... Pretty much. The various potential outcomes begin to diminish now slowly. Some of the unknowns are now being answered. I think what he meant though was it's early for the interaction. It's a little, the timing has changed quite a bit on this run. Some energy is being held way back into canada. The map I posted a day ago with the GFS and the red smudge..same thing happening with the NAM, we're seeing it slow things down in the middle. One of the key s/w is on a different trajectory now towards MN versus dead into the developing trough but there's another lobe not far behind. All very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 will it come to close and warm for some change over to rain for ct Yes, all rain for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well, I don't expect a big jump on the NAM Probably won't be, But there will be adjustments over the next few days...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did anyone happen to watch Matt Noyes technical disco (6:40 PM) on his website? Very interesting. He seems much more favorable of a decent event (poss blizz?) than last week before the models fizzled. Good illustration of the amplification Good disco, don't know anything about him but have watched his vids from time to time. Like the fact he said he thinks this could easily wrap up and tuck in closer to the coast. Nice to have a high pressure feeding cold air in for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Probably won't be, But there will be adjustments over the next few days...... This seems like a pretty major adjustment. I'm not comparing it to other models just the 18z NAM. It's a lot different. Faster in the base of the trough, the triple stacked energy is already in line at 36 but positively tilted. It's not coming so much on the NW quadrant as it is digging in from the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Pretty much. The various potential outcomes begin to diminish now slowly. Some of the unknowns are now being answered. I think what he meant though was it's early for the interaction. It's a little, the timing has changed quite a bit on this run. Some energy is being held way back into canada. The map I posted a day ago with the GFS and the red smudge..same thing happening with the NAM, we're seeing it slow things down in the middle. One of the key s/w is on a different trajectory now towards MN versus dead into the developing trough but there's another lobe not far behind. All very interesting. Yeah, The timing of this whole evolution has seem to be slowing down which will have some effects one would think on the outcome........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM seems faster.. not sure if that is good or not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM seems faster.. not sure if that is good or not.. I really wouldn't worry too much on how the NAM looks tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes, all rain for CT. aaaaaaaaa no i dont think so bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Awesome .. some say NAM is faster, some say NAM is slower. Two men say they're Jesus, one of them must be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Couple of things at the same time heights are lower in the west. More NW to SE flow over the NE US vs the 18z. faster, wants to phase earlier probably but with the old low not moving out any faster.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Awesome .. some say NAM is faster, some say NAM is slower. Two men say they're Jesus, one of them must be wrong. Well it certainly is faster than the 18z run through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 aaaaaaaaa no i dont think so bud I was just kidding. Don't you think it's far too early to be thinking about rain/snow lines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was just kidding. Don't you think it's far too early to be thinking about rain/snow lines? is never to early.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If anything the 0z NAM looks more like the 12z run than it does the 18z run...through 48 HR anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was just kidding. Don't you think it's far too early to be thinking about rain/snow lines? yea i know you were kidding and yes its to early a rain line but i saw a map that had some frozen precip in ct thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be a weird run...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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