CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We could be in a good place Monday...doesn't happen often but this may be nice for the immediate coastal communities of eastern MA. I'm still on the look out for a trend nw. I don't think that can be completely ruled out when we our 120 hrs or so, from the potential event. I won't be around for the later 00z arrivals, but hopefully they continue a nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yup. ~2" out there right now from today alone, on top of the 3" I got the other day. Man I got dusting tonight on top of dusting melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm still on the look out for a trend nw. I don't think that can be completely ruled out when we our 120 hrs or so, from the potential event. I won't be around for the later 00z arrivals, but hopefully they continue a nice trend. Violently agree to the point of first degree murder. I'm not very concerned about being marginalized yet, not with 100 hours to go. Got a chuckle when snowNH called it over for him earlier. Conversely, nobody should be chucking high, far or over KGAY's car just yet lest they want to be humbled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm still on the look out for a trend nw. I don't think that can be completely ruled out when we our 120 hrs or so, from the potential event. I won't be around for the later 00z arrivals, but hopefully they continue a nice trend. How much of a role do you think the ridge out in the west will play? Would you like to see it further west or does it not matter? I know some say the placement of the ridge doesn't matter all that much (I believe DT said this last night) while others (I know southlandwx) is worried about the ridge axis being a bit too far east. What's your take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm still on the look out for a trend nw. I don't think that can be completely ruled out when we our 120 hrs or so, from the potential event. I won't be around for the later 00z arrivals, but hopefully they continue a nice trend. Having spent over half my 42 years living on the coast of New England my experience was that when models were consistently indicating a huge coastal bomb days out more often than not it trended west not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro didn't trend East today. Why do people keep saying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How much of a role do you think the ridge out in the west will play? Would you like to see it further west or does it not matter? I know some say the placement of the ridge doesn't matter all that much (I believe DT said this last night) while others (I know southlandwx) is worried about the ridge axis being a bit too far east. What's your take? Well the ridge axis ultimately matters, but only to a point. It's the phasing that is the biggest issue. As of now, the ridge axis is far enough west to deliver a blow, but only because the euro phases. If you really want to get cute, you can also look at how the ridge transforms as it slowly moves east. This also has a big impact on our sensible wx. So many variables are yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro didn't trend East today. Why do people keep saying that? It was a hair southeast, but pretty much dead on from 00z. Virtually no real east trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the ridge axis ultimately matters, but only to a point. It's the phasing that is the biggest issue. As of now, the ridge axis is far enough west to deliver a blow, but only because the euro phases. If you really want to get cute, you can also look at how the ridge transforms as it slowly moves east. This also has a big impact on our sensible wx. So many variables are yet to be determined. If the storm really winds up as we've seen in some model runs wouldn't it be more likely to pull in tighter towards the trough axis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro didn't trend East today. Why do people keep saying that? Yeah I was thinking this as well..it looked fairly identical..if not more south than anything. I didn't see any eastward jump at all since 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro didn't trend East today. Why do people keep saying that? It did trend slightly E from 00z...not a big one, but I just toggled 126 vs 138 and 132 vs 144 on the two runs and the 12z is definitely a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 It was a hair southeast, but pretty much dead on from 00z. Virtually no real east trend. GAY keeps talking this east trend that simply isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GAY keeps talking this east trend that simply isn't there. It did a little especially after hr 132, but like I said..it wasn't a jump or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 It did a little especially after hr 132, but like I said..it wasn't a jump or anything. Yeah virtually dead on from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the ridge axis ultimately matters, but only to a point. It's the phasing that is the biggest issue. As of now, the ridge axis is far enough west to deliver a blow, but only because the euro phases. If you really want to get cute, you can also look at how the ridge transforms as it slowly moves east. This also has a big impact on our sensible wx. So many variables are yet to be determined. Would the ridge placement have any affects on the phasing at all? Like if we saw the ridge axis say shifted west a hair, would that also means we see the trough axis shift west a bit which could induce phasing a bit further west...or early enough to tuck the storm closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm still on the look out for a trend nw. I don't think that can be completely ruled out when we our 120 hrs or so, from the potential event. I won't be around for the later 00z arrivals, but hopefully they continue a nice trend. Unquestionably. But I like the relative consistency around a window of solutions on the Euro the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the storm really winds up as we've seen in some model runs wouldn't it be more likely to pull in tighter towards the trough axis? It would probably move a little more north, but I think the ULL moving sse from Ontario and the ridge folding east a little keeps it south. That would probably also create a nasty deformation band at the outer edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Would the ridge placement have any affects on the phasing at all? Like if we saw the ridge axis say shifted west a hair, would that also means we see the trough axis shift west a bit which could induce phasing a bit further west...or early enough to tuck the storm closer to the coast? Well yeah if the ridge is west, then everything else is likely west too. I still think it's more s/w timing and strength then anything, but there are other factors that have a say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unquestionably. But I like the relative consistency around a window of solutions on the Euro the past few days. Yeah no denying the consistency, Jerry. It's gonna kill me having to go to bed early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It did trend slightly E from 00z...not a big one, but I just toggled 126 vs 138 and 132 vs 144 on the two runs and the 12z is definitely a tick east. Looking at the qpf distribution the biggest effect is to trim the far NW borders but eastern areas on both runs including you, Kevin, Ray,all the downeast folks and S NH do well. The question is does this represent a trend? GFS moved more towards the Euro while the Euro moved mildly to GFS. I'm liking this convergence...and hopefully the Euro stays right where its at because that would be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well yeah if the ridge is west, then everything else is likely west too. I still think it's more s/w timing and strength then anything, but there are other factors that have a say. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think you guys know what to do here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5265-heavy-heavy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Having spent over half my 42 years living on the coast of New England my experience was that when models were consistently indicating a huge coastal bomb days out more often than not it trended west not east. Agree especially at 980 or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I remember 3 days prior to 3/01. Same priog...cuts off near ORF. You know what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I remember 3 days prior to 3/01. Same priog...cuts off near ORF. You know what happened. Wasn't that a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wasn't that a Miller B? May have been...can't remember. But the H5 dynamics were the same on the models wrt the coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It did trend slightly E from 00z...not a big one, but I just toggled 126 vs 138 and 132 vs 144 on the two runs and the 12z is definitely a tick east. Let's talk intensity, what were the differences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hey suit yourself. Let those of us that want to enjoy this special time enjoy it Ok, this really did get me to laugh out loud. What a total weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let's talk intensity, what were the differences? Ginxy, been out all day. You guys sure have been adding pages like there's no tomorrow. Went back and read through the posts made as the Euro came out. What's your take? Euro looks good to me already and I have a suspicion this could get better here as we get closer. This sure looks like a good ol' fashioned bomb to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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