weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think the idea that you don't want to be in the bullseye five or seven or three days out is general bogus unless you are dealing with a known bias in one direction or another. Solutions will change sure....but the chances of something verifying close to what you are seeing at five days is better than waiting for something to trend 300 miles. Yeah I agree. I'd definitely rather be in the path of something 5 days out that have something be hundreds of miles away from me in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well there'll be some dry air in front, but not enough to be an issue. Anyway, I don't really care HOW I end up getting screwed. We're still pretty much going to watch precip hitting a wall somewhere over southern NH (probably) and scooting quickly east. I really don't really know how you can say that right now. Its 4-5 Days out! I like the position we are in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WOW that is absolutely devestating. Yes. I tried to explain how I could be missing a 1-2 foot snowstorm to my mom and she was just like "oh, im sorry, Should we cancel the trip? (jokingly). She doesn't know that if it still looks like this on Friday I honestly would cancel it and it is quotes like this that make it worse. It's almost the most classic looking blizzard you can come up with for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Compared to the 12z EC, the chances of the storm actually occluding further North: 15% Same 40% South: 45% Why? It can't occlude much further south unless it digs alot earlier and closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 CT Blizz - my prediction for the 12z Euro is another near triple phaser that despite stalling around delmarva still delivers 2"+ qpf to boston and SNE. :weenie: Anyone with access to the euro - can you compare similar times of the 12Z NAM and 0Z Euro to see if the distance between the 50/50 and the S/W is any different? From what I was reading, there was great consternation and gnashing of teeth over confluence in the northeast during that run as well but the 50/50 jumped out just in time for the big hit it showed. Gotta give myself a small pat on the back for staying strong with my conviction that the Euro wouldn't fold to it's ensembles for this upcoming run. I think my guess (which is definitely all it was - no scientific investigation, hence the self weenie) was pretty damn good. Super phaser, CHECK Stall around delmarva, CHECK 2"+ QPF Emphatic CHECK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well I said "almost" ... to get more classic you'd want it a bit slower and sort of stall south of BID. Dec 92, Apr 97, Jan 05 screwed some people... this is almost a regionwide snow/wind thumping. As modeled... unfortunately someone gets screwed in all the biggies. I bet even if this went down as the EURO models, it would still find a way to screw someone (and by that I mean like 12" of snow surrounded by 18-20" amounts, so its all relative). There would have to be some subsidence zones in between a massive fronto band, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 OT but my buddy just texted me that it was rippin snow in ORH..does this hold together and make it to me? need to whiten the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm refering to the ridge upstream over the center of the nation extending into Manitoba. As the Pacfic jet impinges on this ridge, it will tend to break anticyclonically (think of a ocean wave breaking). At the same time, there's energy over northern Quebec that dives southward. Yesterday's 12z Euro showed this energy diving south before the ridge started to break (and actually held it back to some extent). Thus it was able to reach southeast Ontario, and help pull the huge coastal bomb west. The lastest few runs have the ridge breaking earlier and the Quebec disturbance rides the eastern edge of the falling crest, thus being pushed eastward, and once it reaches southern Quebec, it also acts to sweep the coastal storm eastward limiting it's maximum latitude. OK wow that is fascinating i was trying to figure out what was causing this monster to put on such sharp brakes....thank you so much for the explanation! if im going to miss out on the storm, im glad i at least know why. im guessing the (unlikely) trend we need is a less impressive Pac jet then to break down the ridge. thanks again for the great explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18Z GFS appears to be lighting the fuse...it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 OT but my buddy just texted me that it was rippin snow in ORH..does this hold together and make it to me? need to whiten the ground Don't we all. And no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Probably my most traumatic miss was 12/9/05 although I've missed way bigger storms. To hear the obs from Logan on my phone from sunny SAN...."visibility 1/8 mile, thunderstorm, heavy snow" was like a dagger. But leaving 2 days before the Dec 03 bomb which gave my town 2 feet was no picnic. Missing the March 93 storm and living on the west coast for 78....all of these things have made me the raving weenie I've become.... terrible that is a lifetime of heartbreak right there just for all that, you defintely deserve this one. admittedly, noone else does, but you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I hate to be the voice of reason, but friendly reminder it was around this time last week that all of the models predicted a bomb. Nobody wants a dumping more than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not concerned about the inflow that's helping you hindering northern areas. I do believe the further south iteration is shifting the heavier qpf shield south. I can't believe it could go south to hurt you at this point, but it can very easily continue to slip causing many in eastern NY/VT/NW Mass/SW NH to get the royal screwgie. Does that make sense? I don't think I'm being off my rocker with this. As I said to Ryan... in every storm, someone has to get screwed. It can't snow a lot everywhere and not everyone can be in the jackpot. I'm not sure I'd look at it as "getting screwed" by mother nature, but more as if the storm just wasn't meant to be for a certain area. I'm not expecting anything out of this, but I'm going to enjoy watching this unfold for SNE. Its still incredibly fun to watch, learn, and analyze a potentially historic snowstorm even if it doesn't occur in your backyard. Plus, the areas on the outside of this system are generally "snowier" climate areas anyway, so you'll make it up somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18Z GFS appears to be lighting the fuse...it's coming. It's going to be stronger this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 terrible that is a lifetime of heartbreak right there just for all that, you defintely deserve this one. admittedly, noone else does, but you do. Good man and thank you! GFS is faster and as such will apparently occlude this system further north as it will have gained more latitude by the time it closes...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I"m worrying less about a 1/25 redo with the big dance being way way to our south. GFS upticked the system tonight, 1-3 seems like a good bet over EMA and then we watch for a 2-4/3-6 band. I also wonder whether we will see this miracle band stay on the SW fringe of the precip all night. EDIT: someone needs to put marcus on the payroll....server speed slower than the old site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Jesus christ GFS slow enough today? Get ready for a model dump... probably 54 to 114 soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I hate to be the voice of reason, but friendly reminder it was around this time last week that all of the models predicted a bomb. Nobody wants a dumping more than me. Completely different setup than last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think the idea that you don't want to be in the bullseye five or seven or three days out is general bogus unless you are dealing with a known bias in one direction or another. Solutions will change sure....but the chances of something verifying close to what you are seeing at five days is better than waiting for something to trend 300 miles. Weenie psychology 101... see now we've got posts saying "I like being in the bullseye" from the folks who are, well, in the bullseye. There are also posts that say "I like where I stand so that when this trends XYZ I will THEN be in the bullseye when it really matters." The emotional and superstitious and psychological circles that get spun here are ridiculous when you consider the models and mother nature do not consider human emotions in their outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That Ray must sniff a little glue in between model runs .... What are you talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well the Euro remains sharper with the trough and a bit further west than the GFS. So I think this will be east of the Euro. As excited as everyone is about the Euro op and ensembles it's still going to take work for this to be a monster. It's definitely not a lock... far from it in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is going to make a late left hook and probably hit SE SNE pretty hard this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 We need a new server. This is freaking ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We need a new server. This is freaking ridiculous It's only going to get worse I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We need a new server. This is freaking ridiculous It's going to be a disaster by Thursday if this is still a honker. Marcus was a lot of things but he was a good with the hardware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS much faster than 12z but it doesn't look that bad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well the Euro's triple phaser just takes place a hair earlier than the GFS and that explains the difference. Going to take some time to iron out the phasing details here. If this does phase in time with all 3 shortwaves we're talking about a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS actually brought the low a tad further north and faster. Not alot different VS 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's only going to get worse I'm sure. Didn't we all just donate hundreds of dollars to pay for the current new one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well the Euro's triple phaser just takes place a hair earlier than the GFS and that explains the difference. Going to take some time to iron out the phasing details here. If this does phase in time with all 3 shortwaves we're talking about a monster. Where's AndyNJ when you need him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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