40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why on Earth is GAY worried. I mean WTF Scooter just said the same thing on the phone; you have to worry seeing a perfect soloution 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why on Earth is GAY worried. I mean WTF If this happens as progged he will shat his pants Jack style while we rip for hours, expect a slow moving CCB, then he is slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well, this one has it's work cut out for it to surpass April 1997 in my memory...Dec 1992 and Jan 2005 are doable. How do you think this compares to Feb 1978...can't get more classis than that, dude. Well I said "almost" ... to get more classic you'd want it a bit slower and sort of stall south of BID. Dec 92, Apr 97, Jan 05 screwed some people... this is almost a regionwide snow/wind thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why on Earth is GAY worried. I mean WTF It's still 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Scooter just said the same thing on the phone; you have to worry seeing a perfect soloution 5 days out. Not when we see the Euro locking on to this so many days in a row. This is how all the big ones start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't think it matters for you. I'm talking CNE/NNE. ok, I see. whew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Preliminary thoughts. If I had to draw a map right now the contours would be similar I'd just drop the NW line and scale down 1 step to the SE. I think the cutoff might be up in NW MA somewhere. A 5 day guess = 70 yard field goal attempt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 kinda off topic...but just a testament about how crazy the blocky pattern has been...Bermuda set it's all time December record low this morning at 48 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't think it matters for you. I'm talking CNE/NNE. I really think We'll be Ok for this one Dendrite. With such a bomb, its all about banding anyways. We could easily more than the area that was supposed to jackpot. If you get into one of those bands with 2" hour rates that pivots over you as the storm stalls and shifts south and east you'll do good. As long as we are in the outside shield of the heavy snow, which we are right now. Are you guys ready for the 18z GFS BECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well, this one has it's work cut out for it to surpass April 1997 in my memory...Dec 1992 and Jan 2005 are doable. How do you think this compares to Feb 1978...can't get more classis than that, dude. This appears to be a heavy massive hit which is slower than usual yet progressive but dude"......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Preliminary thoughts. Thanks for putting the 6" through mby. I'd have been chagrined if it went in front of the house. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I really think We'll be Ok for this one Dendrite. With such a bomb, its all about banding anyways. We could easily more than the area that was supposed to jackpot. If you get into one of those bands with 2" hour rates that pivots over you as the storm stalls and shifts south and east you'll do good. As long as we are in the outside shield of the heavy snow, which we are right now. Are you guys ready for the 18z GFS BECS? It's early, but I envision a Jan 96 like gradient through NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think we're in a snow makeup zone. You know you're ok when a storm that whiffs out to Timbuktu gives the cape 10+ and many of the rest of us 2-4. You know you're ok when one of these dinkle**** inverted trofs actually PANS OUT and overperforms like this one may. This is our time. We'll be in the barrel again but enjoy this next week...it will be as good as it gets (I hope...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Steve, my concern once I saw the 00z EC this morning was that it was occluding too far south. The EC has done a step down in each run from 12z yesterday. It's nice to be seeing warning qpf on ethe euro (I'm in the .75 zone). But the fact remains that the heavy snow shield has been steadily shifting south for the last 24 hours. So, I think my concern about the latitude that this closes off is warranted. The locaiton of this occlusion has big impact on those of us on the northern side of this SNE thread (Pete, Rick, Chris, Wx and others in NH). If I were still in CT, I'd be be pretty content because only a major shift would hinder things there. As you said, the solution is congealing--for those on the fringes, this question about what latitude could well be the differece between being part of a major storm or having a marginal--albeit breezy--snowfall. My point is the massive and spectacular inflow, occlusion is helping the coast not hindering you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah...that piece of energy diving in from way up in Canada was our key to getting a blockbuster. I'm starting to feel like we're only scraped without that whether the srn phase is early or late. If it's later everything probably gets shifted east. We need some extra help and time is running out. This is what I was referncing in my reply to Steve. At least I'm getting a dusting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is what I was referncing in my reply to Steve. At least I'm getting a dusting tonight. Jeez Guys get off the ledge. Its Wednesday and the storm is Coming Sunday Night... all we need is another 75-100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That Ray must sniff a little glue in between model runs .... LOL dial up is killing me right now, combined with the load on the server. Meant to have a map in that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If I had to draw a map right now the contours would be similar I'd just drop the NW line and scale down 1 step to the SE. I think the cutoff might be up in NW MA somewhere. A 5 day guess = 70 yard field goal attempt! I absolutely agree that the NW gradient will be much much tighter than I show it. As a preliminary call, I left some room for movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not sure how many here follow Southlandwx (used to be Utica Wx) but he writes some very insightful posts on is blogs and has been making updates regarding the potential storm on Monday. His update and his thoughts http://adiabat.wordpress.com/2010/12/22/models-throwing-punches-for-boxing-day-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Scooter just said the same thing on the phone; you have to worry seeing a perfect soloution 5 days out. ne Yes, but....at this point it is 5 days up here because of the slow movement. but really the storm will be forming in 3 days so we are getting in the zone at this point. For me the 0z tonight is the one that gets me excited...then we watch the trends and tweaks. If anyone should be worried is us in teh far n and w interior. Geez even if it goes ots you prolly still get a nice reacharound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I absolutely agree that the NW gradient will be much much tighter than I show it. As a preliminary call, I left some room for movement At least this won't be a case where the precip just runs into dry air and just fade out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My point is the massive and spectacular inflow, occlusion is helping the coast not hindering you. I'm not concerned about the inflow that's helping you hindering northern areas. I do believe the further south iteration is shifting the heavier qpf shield south. I can't believe it could go south to hurt you at this point, but it can very easily continue to slip causing many in eastern NY/VT/NW Mass/SW NH to get the royal screwgie. Does that make sense? I don't think I'm being off my rocker with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At least this won't be a case where the precip just runs into dry air and just fade out. Well there is going to be some dry air in place out ahead of it but it doesn't look to be all that big of a deal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A little early? I don't think so. Obviously many details will be worked out over the next 4-5 days, and that's what my call is open ended. BUT there are clear constraints showing up on the west, north, and east sides of the storm track. Such that room for shifting is small enough to be confident in a preliminary call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not concerned about the inflow that's helping you hindering northern areas. I do believe the further south iteration is shifting the heavier qpf shield south. I can't believe it could go south to hurt you at this point, but it can very easily continue to slip causing many in eastern NY/VT/NW Mass/SW NH to get the royal screwgie. Does that make sense? I don't think I'm being off my rocker with this. Yeah but it could easily go the other way too. and give SE MA dry slot and Mix issues. Right now ORH is Jackpot IMO but that could easily go to the places you listed above and that could easily go to SE MA only. Hard to tell right now. Going to be a VERY stressful time over the next couple of days with Xmas and this storm. I have a party to go to tonight which I am very happy about, because it takes a lot of time of me searching through the boards and the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL that was confusing sorry. Im going to florida xmas to new years. WOW that is absolutely devestating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 you know it is a good feeling when the blend of the ensemble mean and the operation ECM runs put a juggernaut about quintessentially ideal for a stationary frontogenic band from glacial hell ene from white plain ny to cape anne!!! Yeah dude you guys have waited a long time for something like this to come along... SNE has been in a big snow drought so sooner or later you are bound to get clobbered. This looks like the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At least this won't be a case where the precip just runs into dry air and just fade out. Well there'll be some dry air in front, but not enough to be an issue. Anyway, I don't really care HOW I end up getting screwed. We're still pretty much going to watch precip hitting a wall somewhere over southern NH (probably) and scooting quickly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think the idea that you don't want to be in the bullseye five or seven or three days out is general bogus unless you are dealing with a known bias in one direction or another. Solutions will change sure....but the chances of something verifying close to what you are seeing at five days is better than waiting for something to trend 300 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Compared to the 12z EC, the chances of the storm actually occluding further North: 15% Same 40% South: 45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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