moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL that was confusing sorry. Im going to florida xmas to new years. That seals the deal--ORH for the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL that was confusing sorry. Im going to florida xmas to new years. Pretend you're sick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not sure I'd say the op is continuing east. This storm is a little different where the longitude at closest pass to SNE doesn't matter. What matters is how soon the storm occludes to our south. It's a rare (but classic) setup where the things hugs to coast to about DE or S NJ, occludes, and then pushes east. That is a classic snow bomb track for a miller A and SNE destroyer. Man people need to grasp your thoughts. I have been trying, guys like MPM on the East slopes of the Berks need to chill, despite the generalized QPF maps , which were great Thanks Tombo, the upslope component in those areas would be off the hook. Again need to look past the Big L on the map. Hope it holds but honestly I think things are congealing into a solution pretty quickly. It will be a huge surprise to me if radical changes occur tonight and tomorrow but been there done that in a different setup. looking great right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL that was confusing sorry. Im going to florida xmas to new years. Trust me...I know EXACTLY what you are going through. So sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hate to say it, but I like the Reverend's position best now. Far enough south to avoid sharp north cutoff fears probably. Far enough inland should something crazy happen and P-type issues crop up along the coast. Far enough east to avoid my problems of western fringe. The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area. If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 FWIW the 18z NAM at 72 HR really doesn't look all that different from the 12z euro at 72 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 could you offer an explanation please? this have to do with the NAO/blocking? I'm refering to the ridge upstream over the center of the nation extending into Manitoba. As the Pacfic jet impinges on this ridge, it will tend to break anticyclonically (think of a ocean wave breaking). At the same time, there's energy over northern Quebec that dives southward. Yesterday's 12z Euro showed this energy diving south before the ridge started to break (and actually held it back to some extent). Thus it was able to reach southeast Ontario, and help pull the huge coastal bomb west. The lastest few runs have the ridge breaking earlier and the Quebec disturbance rides the eastern edge of the falling crest, thus being pushed eastward, and once it reaches southern Quebec, it also acts to sweep the coastal storm eastward limiting it's maximum latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That seals the deal--ORH for the jackpot. Haha, I know right. Pretend you're sick... Its so "funny" because everyone in my family is so excited. I mean it will be a great trip and all, but looking at the 12z Euro just makes me sick. If theres a foot and a half of snow falling back at home I won't enjoy 60 and sunny. Trust me...I know EXACTLY what you are going through. So sorry! Yeah, I know youve traveled a lot during the winter. Thanks! Anyway, Im done whining, continue with the storm discussion guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I went to TPA a number of times in the 1999-2004 period when my sister was down there. One year we stayed north (2002) was the ony year that a big KU (interior) storm hit. Otherwise I missed very little in that time frame. Trust me...I know EXACTLY what you are going through. So sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Preliminary thoughts. That Ray must sniff a little glue in between model runs .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 you know it is a good feeling when the blend of the ensemble mean and the operation ECM runs put a juggernaut about quintessentially ideal for a stationary frontogenic band from glacial hell ene from white plain ny to cape anne!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Probably my most traumatic miss was 12/9/05 although I've missed way bigger storms. To hear the obs from Logan on my phone from sunny SAN...."visibility 1/8 mile, thunderstorm, heavy snow" was like a dagger. But leaving 2 days before the Dec 03 bomb which gave my town 2 feet was no picnic. Missing the March 93 storm and living on the west coast for 78....all of these things have made me the raving weenie I've become.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Haha, I know right. Its so "funny" because everyone in my family is so excited. I mean it will be a great trip and all, but looking at the 12z Euro just makes me sick. If theres a foot and a half of snow falling back at home I won't enjoy 60 and sunny. Yeah, I know youve traveled a lot during the winter. Thanks! Anyway, Im done whining, continue with the storm discussion guys Ugh..that's awful dude..if I were you I'd be half rooting for this to go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Preliminary thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ugh..that's awful dude..if I were you I'd be half rooting for this to go OTS. Im fully rooting for this to go out to sea. We can all eperience a MECS on Jan. 2 instead hahah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not sure I'd say the op is continuing east. This storm is a little different where the longitude at closest pass to SNE doesn't matter. What matters is how soon the storm occludes to our south. It's a rare (but classic) setup where the things hugs to coast to about DE or S NJ, occludes, and then pushes east. That is a classic snow bomb track for a miller A and SNE destroyer. Maybe it's semantics, but I think the issue is with it being too far south before escaping ENE for central New England. 12z yesterday had everything a bit north with the occlusion just south of LI...not necessarily west. Regardless, I want to see that trend of closing off near the Bahamas cease and desist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm refering to the ridge upstream over the center of the nation extending into Manitoba. As the Pacfic jet impinges on this ridge, it will tend to break anticyclonically (think of a ocean wave breaking). At the same time, there's energy over northern Quebec that dives southward. Yesterday's 12z Euro showed this energy diving south before the ridge started to break (and actually held it back to some extent). Thus it was able to reach southeast Ontario, and help pull the huge coastal bomb west. The lastest few runs have the ridge breaking earlier and the Quebec disturbance rides the eastern edge of the falling crest, thus being pushed eastward, and once it reaches southern Quebec, it also acts to sweep the coastal storm eastward limiting it's maximum latitude. Yeah...that piece of energy diving in from way up in Canada was our key to getting a blockbuster. I'm starting to feel like we're only scraped without that whether the srn phase is early or late. If it's later everything probably gets shifted east. We need some extra help and time is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Probably my most traumatic miss was 12/9/05 although I've missed way bigger storms. To hear the obs from Logan on my phone from sunny SAN...."visibility 1/8 mile, thunderstorm, heavy snow" was like a dagger. But leaving 2 days before the Dec 03 bomb which gave my town 2 feet was no picnic. Missing the March 93 storm and living on the west coast for 78....all of these things have made me the raving weenie I've become.... OMG, that absolutely blows. Not sure how you're still living After one time of that happening to me I'd be pissed...not sure how you were able to compose yourself after 4 events. I know if I were ever to leave town during the summer and my area got crushed by a severe t'storm it would be best for anyone around me to quickly get out of sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Probably my most traumatic miss was 12/9/05 although I've missed way bigger storms. To hear the obs from Logan on my phone from sunny SAN...."visibility 1/8 mile, thunderstorm, heavy snow" was like a dagger. But leaving 2 days before the Dec 03 bomb which gave my town 2 feet was no picnic. Missing the March 93 storm and living on the west coast for 78....all of these things have made me the raving weenie I've become.... I can just imagine this Monday. Im outside in 60F weather and I go on this forum and read SN+ 12" new, thunder snow, looks like a 2" an hour band on the way...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Im fully rooting for this to go out to sea. We can all eperience a MECS on Jan. 2 instead hahah. How about a compromise - we get this storm followed by a nice cold snap, 2+ feet of snow on the ground when you get back, AND a KU right after you get back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Regardless, I want to see that trend of closing off near the Bahamas cease and desist. Well I think we want to see the 12z continue. No change in that run. It's almost the most classic looking blizzard you can come up with for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Preliminary thoughts. A little early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah...that piece of energy diving in from way up in Canada was our key to getting a blockbuster. I'm starting to feel like we're only scraped without that whether the srn phase is early or late. If it's later everything probably gets shifted east. We need some extra help and time is running out. So we want that piece of energy diving down from Canada to come into the picture earlier rather than later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why on Earth is GAY worried. I mean WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I can just imagine this Monday. Im outside in 60F weather and I go on this forum and read SN+ 12" new, thunder snow, looks like a 2" an hour band on the way...ugh. If I were you, I would be sick to my stomach...unfortunately I feel as though I am simply waiting for the models to show OTS tomorrow - then I will be sick to my stomach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How about a compromise - we get this storm followed by a nice cold snap, 2+ feet of snow on the ground when you get back, AND a KU right after you get back? Yeah I could deal with that I guess. I'll be moniotring whenever I can from sunny FL to torture myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well I think we want to see the 12z continue. No change in that run. It's almost the most classic looking blizzard you can come up with for SNE. Thanks just got in from my shift at EC ,how did I do Saw those Accupro wind progs nice drifts incoming,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well I think we want to see the 12z continue. No change in that run. It's almost the most classic looking blizzard you can come up with for SNE. Well, this one has it's work cut out for it to surpass April 1997 in my memory...Dec 1992 and Jan 2005 are doable. How do you think this compares to Feb 1978...can't get more classis than that, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So we want that piece of energy diving down from Canada to come into the picture earlier rather than later? I don't think it matters for you. I'm talking CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Man people need to grasp your thoughts. I have been trying, guys like MPM on the East slopes of the Berks need to chill, despite the generalized QPF maps , which were great Thanks Tombo, the upslope component in those areas would be off the hook. Again need to look past the Big L on the map. Hope it holds but honestly I think things are congealing into a solution pretty quickly. It will be a huge surprise to me if radical changes occur tonight and tomorrow but been there done that in a different setup. looking great right now. Steve, my concern once I saw the 00z EC this morning was that it was occluding too far south. The EC has done a step down in each run from 12z yesterday. It's nice to be seeing warning qpf on ethe euro (I'm in the .75 zone). But the fact remains that the heavy snow shield has been steadily shifting south for the last 24 hours. So, I think my concern about the latitude that this closes off is warranted. The locaiton of this occlusion has big impact on those of us on the northern side of this SNE thread (Pete, Rick, Chris, Wx and others in NH). If I were still in CT, I'd be be pretty content because only a major shift would hinder things there. As you said, the solution is congealing--for those on the fringes, this question about what latitude could well be the differece between being part of a major storm or having a marginal--albeit breezy--snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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