weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Remember...all the big...the historic storms of the past 20 years well signaled well in advance. This has been on the docket with both GFS and ECMWF and even crazy Uncle and CMC going for a huge bomb. EC has shifted around a relatively minor range but has been steadfast on bringing this stemwinder in. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Henry M's first call map http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5236-henrys-snow-map/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now this is LA EPIC, congrats man, commute is a good time to mull over life, how long is it? Bout an hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Elephant in the room ray? There has never been a KU in a strong nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Elephant in the room ray? There has never been a KU in a strong nina Yeah...7-9 years of data is so much to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Elephant in the room ray? There has never been a KU in a strong nina After 12z tomorrow we may be able to put a bullet in the Elephant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Elephant in the room ray? There has never been a KU in a strong nina Who cares; lack of precedent didn't preclude N centeral MD from accumulating 60"+ of snow in 5 days last year, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 After 12z tomorrow we may be able to put a bullet in the Elephant. I would go with the tranquilizer first then come Saturday propel the bullets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks for the explanations. Well we have four more days of runs...let's hope it works out for all of us. I'd be happy with 6"+ if I could pull that. 132 on the OP is a tad west of that. More like 37.5/70.5. But 126 on the OP is 37.5/73.5 and that's what does the deed. And ENS even better. You'll get alot of deformation snow with either of those solutions verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run def. contunued the trend east somewhat on the EURO OP; jackpot now looks to be CC.....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run def. contunued the trend east somewhat on the EURO OP; jackpot now looks to be CC.....again. I thought it trended west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 When the 12Z GFS made that big trend toward the Euro ..then you knew that normalcy had probably returned and the Euro was going to be right. Now we have to iron out the details for places in ENY and central/northern NE. But the big low and major impact snowstorm for the East Coast is coming I believe. Remember...all the big...the historic storms of the past 20 years well signaled well in advance. This has been on the docket with both GFS and ECMWF and even crazy Uncle and CMC going for a huge bomb. EC has shifted around a relatively minor range but has been steadfast on bringing this stemwinder in. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Henry M's first call map http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5236-henrys-snow-map/ Pretty conservative for Henry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm leaving for New York City Sunday morning. If I miss this snowstorm, so help me God, I will be pissed beyond belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I thought it trended west? No...the 12z ens trended west from the 00z ens. The op closed off/occluded a bit further south than 00z before scooting east. The best dynamics don't quite make it as far north on the 12z op, but you guys in SNE still get whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Henry M's first call map http://www.americanw...enrys-snow-map/ 1-3" "Five dollars. Maybe I'll go to the movies......by myself." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Pretty conservative for Henry. Yeah I was surprised to see that. When I first clicked on the thread I was expecting to see some 12''+ colors on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I thought it trended west? The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area. If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I texted Gibbs... if the Euro ens and op run are consistent at 00z and 12z tonight and tomorrow I'll be officially excited!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area. If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob. I'm not sure I'd say the op is continuing east. This storm is a little different where the longitude at closest pass to SNE doesn't matter. What matters is how soon the storm occludes to our south. It's a rare (but classic) setup where the things hugs to coast to about DE or S NJ, occludes, and then pushes east. That is a classic snow bomb track for a miller A and SNE destroyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area. If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob. I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area. If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob. Maybe it's semantics, but I think the issue is with it being too far south before escaping ENE for central New England. 12z yesterday had everything a bit north with the occlusion just south of LI...not necessarily west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Bout an hr. I do 40 mins every day for the last 11 years, really NBD after a while, Coffee, AC/DC cranking FIYAAAAH, sports talk radio boom at work. Plus you can give us town by town reports as you wiz by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area. If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob. ohhh ok...I thought you were referring to the ensembles. Yeah I would say at this point eastern sections probably have the best shot at seeing the highest amounts from this...it would be nice to see the OP tick west but seeing how the ensembles came in further west that's certainly a good thing right now. I'd like to see what each of the individual members are showing though, I would think they are all pretty much exactly the same in regards to track or there are some that are pretty far west...enough so to bring the entire spread westward from the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 No posting maps from pay sites. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't think you can post those maps, Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is what I have to say: Enjoy the storm guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Maybe it's semantics, but I think the issue is with it being too far south before escaping ENE for central New England. 12z yesterday had everything a bit north with the occlusion just south of LI...not necessarily west. Just posted the exact same thing lol. We can't think of this as a typical Miller B where how flat the flow is will screw us up at this latitude. If the Euro is right we're concerned with how soon this occludes before jutting east. Very 1/96-esque. Now if the Euro is wrong and we're looking at a weaker southern stream and a more typical development then E vs W starts to matter more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is what I have to say: Enjoy the storm guys. WTF? You're in the significant burying zone....WTF????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WTF? You're in the significant burying zone....WTF????????? LOL that was confusing sorry. Im going to florida xmas to new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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