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Post Christmas Bomb


Damage In Tolland

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Remember...all the big...the historic storms of the past 20 years well signaled well in advance. This has been on the docket with both GFS and ECMWF and even crazy Uncle and CMC going for a huge bomb. EC has shifted around a relatively minor range but has been steadfast on bringing this stemwinder in. So far so good.

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Thanks for the explanations. :) Well we have four more days of runs...let's hope it works out for all of us. I'd be happy with 6"+ if I could pull that.

132 on the OP is a tad west of that. More like 37.5/70.5. But 126 on the OP is 37.5/73.5 and that's what does the deed. And ENS even better. You'll get alot of deformation snow with either of those solutions verbatim.

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When the 12Z GFS made that big trend toward the Euro ..then you knew that normalcy had probably returned and the Euro was going to be right. Now we have to iron out the details for places in ENY and central/northern NE. But the big low and major impact snowstorm for the East Coast is coming I believe.

Remember...all the big...the historic storms of the past 20 years well signaled well in advance. This has been on the docket with both GFS and ECMWF and even crazy Uncle and CMC going for a huge bomb. EC has shifted around a relatively minor range but has been steadfast on bringing this stemwinder in. So far so good.

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The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area.

If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob.

I'm not sure I'd say the op is continuing east. This storm is a little different where the longitude at closest pass to SNE doesn't matter. What matters is how soon the storm occludes to our south. It's a rare (but classic) setup where the things hugs to coast to about DE or S NJ, occludes, and then pushes east. That is a classic snow bomb track for a miller A and SNE destroyer.

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The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area.

If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob.

Maybe it's semantics, but I think the issue is with it being too far south before escaping ENE for central New England. 12z yesterday had everything a bit north with the occlusion just south of LI...not necessarily west.
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The ens mean did, but the op is continuing east; they are converging on a soloution that may very well turn this into a mod event for a portion of the area.

If I had to pick a ground zero right now based upon guidance, it would be near Bob.

ohhh ok...I thought you were referring to the ensembles.

Yeah I would say at this point eastern sections probably have the best shot at seeing the highest amounts from this...it would be nice to see the OP tick west but seeing how the ensembles came in further west that's certainly a good thing right now. I'd like to see what each of the individual members are showing though, I would think they are all pretty much exactly the same in regards to track or there are some that are pretty far west...enough so to bring the entire spread westward from the OP.

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Maybe it's semantics, but I think the issue is with it being too far south before escaping ENE for central New England. 12z yesterday had everything a bit north with the occlusion just south of LI...not necessarily west.

Just posted the exact same thing lol.

We can't think of this as a typical Miller B where how flat the flow is will screw us up at this latitude. If the Euro is right we're concerned with how soon this occludes before jutting east. Very 1/96-esque.

Now if the Euro is wrong and we're looking at a weaker southern stream and a more typical development then E vs W starts to matter more.

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