Arnold214 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Man that phase in the deep south that the ecmwf has is just so pretty to look at. Textbook and rare I might add. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm going to take what I learned from last weeks fiasco and step away from the boards for a time. There's just too much at stake as far as my sanity goes to invest in 4-5 day out scenarios. While the fantasy sounds great at this point, I've got to bail in order to keep myself together. [. . . going into periodic lurk mode as of now.] Yea OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Man that phase in the deep south that the ecmwf has is just so pretty to look at. Textbook and rare I might add. We've locked it in here in Kevin's thread. Get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We've locked it in here in Kevin's thread. Get excited. lol...I am in maine and in jeopardy of missing out on most of it even if the ec verifies. I am just enjoying the snow at the current time...it's been snowing here all day but in the last hour the vsby has been dropping pretty fast. Looks like 2-4 tonight for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 lol...I am in maine and in jeopardy of missing out on most of it even if the ec verifies. I am just enjoying the snow at the current time...it's been snowing here all day but in the last hour the vsby has been dropping pretty fast. Looks like 2-4 tonight for me. Yeah, 2-4" good call, Euro look to get .75" qpf up here at 12z, We are close to 1" here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Man that phase in the deep south that the ecmwf has is just so pretty to look at. Textbook and rare I might add. Epic. Mm, indeed it is. Folks, if you are attempting to supply analogs for this I would look for Miller A captured by northern stream scenarios. Btw, that day 120 into 144 on the 12z Euro is odd looking - though stranger things have happened. But we go to 4 contours or more with the closing mid level circulation, than rip it open and squirt it abruptly out the next day. This is clearly because there is a Pac jet punching through the northern Rockies and High Plains, entering a progressivity into a retrograde pattern. I suspect that is in error and any such pattern break down would be a slower onset. The PNA is rising and ends up positive now at both CDC and CPC, so this run definitely doesn't fit well with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Loggedin from my BB. Very slow loading so I can't look through older posts, what did the Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HPC Discussion. A word that didn't come to my mind when I saw the trend on the GFS run was "mild". 12Z UPDATE... FINAL FCST MAKES NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE. WITH THE GULF/WRN ATLC SYSTEM A MILD WWD TREND IN THE 12Z GFS/GEFS MEAN HAS NARROWED THE SOLN SPREAD SLIGHTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC BUT OTHERWISE PRIOR UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY IN PRINCIPLE WHILE THE 12Z CMC CLUSTERS NEAR THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE UKMET IS SLOWEST AND ALSO EWD OF THE ECMWF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN DOES OFFER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO EXTEND FARTHER WWD THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN EVEN THOUGH THE GEFS MEAN SFC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO OR A FRACTION E OF THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 nice to see the NOGAPS on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yea OK Damn. You're right. How long did I last - 15 minutes? . . . Hmmm, pathetic I am (in best Yoda voice). Intervention required by 12-24 - 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So looking at the last three ECMWF runs we have gone from : yesterday 12Z low tucked in 50 miles south of LI, last night 0Z low moves off Delaware, today 12z low moves off NC/VA border to 37/70. I'm glad it has this impressive bomb, but this southern trend must stop or forget about it.... Man that phase in the deep south that the ecmwf has is just so pretty to look at. Textbook and rare I might add. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Loggedin from my BB. Very slow loading so I can't look through older posts, what did the Euro show? borderline BECS for the I-95 corridor from the Carolinas to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Man that phase in the deep south that the ecmwf has is just so pretty to look at. Textbook and rare I might add. Epic. There ya go As we thought La Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm going to take what I learned from last weeks fiasco and step away from the boards for a time. I've got to bail in order to keep myself together. I hear that. Cautiously optimistic for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I got moderate snow in Westborough Mass, uniform moderately sizes aggregates with vis down to 3/4 mile estimateded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do you guys want me to do qpf maps for your region off sv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do you guys want me to do qpf maps for your region off sv? Thanks, but I think there are others with access to SV as well as WSI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do you guys want me to do qpf maps for your region off sv? Go for it, we are told that WSI maps are more realistic but it would be nice to see. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Mm, indeed it is. Folks, if you are attempting to supply analogs for this I would look for Miller A captured by northern stream scenarios. Btw, that day 120 into 144 on the 12z Euro is odd looking - though stranger things have happened. But we go to 4 contours or more with the closing mid level circulation, than rip it open and squirt it abruptly out the next day. This is clearly because there is a Pac jet punching through the northern Rockies and High Plains, entering a progressivity into a retrograde pattern. I suspect that is in error and any such pattern break down would be a slower onset. The PNA is rising and ends up positive now at both CDC and CPC, so this run definitely doesn't fit well with that. That was why I asked what was going on between 120 and 144 Seemed pretty crazy as to what was being modeled at 120 then all of a sudden seeing the thing just open up and speed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks, but I think there are others with access to SV as well as WSI. Not many so whats the big deal. I say yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks, but I think there are others with access to SV as well as WSI. alright i was just asking, cause someone from your thread asked me to extend my maps up to your area. If you guys want to go off the wsi maps thats fine, just wanted to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do you guys want me to do qpf maps for your region off sv? I would certainly love to see maps if you could draw some up. I was actually going to ask if anyone who has access to WSI or SV could draw some up as we get closer. I know the SV maps are usually too wet from what I've heard but I would still like to at least see some sort of visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do you guys want me to do qpf maps for your region off sv? The one you did yesterday that I saw looked like it covered both the NYC/Phl folks as well as the southern Newenglanders.. I was real happy to see the colors extending up into this area... So yea, id love to see them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So looking at the last three ECMWF runs we have gone from : yesterday 12Z low tucked in 50 miles south of LI, last night 0Z low moves off Delaware, today 12z low moves off NC/VA border to 37/70. I'm glad it has this impressive bomb, but this southern trend must stop or forget about it.... Frightening, isn't it? So much bust potential--that's why I'm clamoring for a northward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 SV has 2.5+ from HFD to BOS and less NW of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 alright i was just asking, cause someone from your thread asked me to extend my maps up to your area. If you guys want to go off the wsi maps thats fine, just wanted to ask. Just go ahead and do so Who cars if they are wetter than WSI maps, it would be nice for those of us who don't have access to at least have a visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 EC ensembles are coming in more amped up and west of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do you guys want me to do qpf maps for your region off sv? Do you really think you need to ask????? lol TIA> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 EC ensembles are coming in more amped up and west of 00z. As we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 SV has 2.5+ from HFD to BOS and less NW of that what are these sv and wsi maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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