Post Christmas Bomb

[friendwh]

How far west could this go?

if you're going with the track merely based on the 12z Euro, then I don't think it can come all the much further west - or, at the very least, it's significantly more likely to be east of the 12z Euro than west of it...

[dryslot]

Why can I not send a PM? is that feature turned off?

I can't even look at my own profile, I get an error message...........

[Baroclinic Zone]

I was just wondering which one was more accurate..because the SV qpf was well over 2+ on the map I saw.

Hopefully this isn't OT for the old man in the shoe

:hitler:

[MainePhotog]

I'm pretty optimistic, but this could still slide SE...even if it phases. I think its silly for people to be almost guaranteeing that we get crushed at this time range...thats all.

+1

[snowNH]

You're not alone in that dept. Welcome to the board!

As Tip stated this storm could be big enough to get most of us in on the action.

I think I'd rather take my chances on the outskirts with a deformation band than be closer to the dry slot.. somone will get screwed with the dry slot on this storm

[ORH_wxman]

Many features of the board are turned off at the moment because of the extreme volume....they will be turned back on once the volumes comes back to earth a bit. We usually get a really high spike around the time the Euro comes out and the following hour when people are digesting it.

[SJonesWX]

March 2001 anyone?

I can't even look at my own profile, I get an error message...........

the search function was disabled earlier

[Damage In Tolland]

I can't even look at my own profile, I get an error message...........

Same here..they can probably turn it back on now that the server load is less

[moneypitmike]

This needs to be emphasized very much ...formulated into a hand, and smacked across Kevin's face in a repeated back and forth pattern:

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS

POINT...AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE

OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY

TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

[bobbutts]

Wow...the GFS doesn't look bad at all and I can't believe the consistency on the Euro regarding the strength of this...quite impressive.

12z GFS looks pretty bad to me.. Cutoff south of you which = way south of me

[weatherwiz]

I think I'd rather take my chances on the outskirts with a deformation band than be closer to the dry slot.. somone will get screwed with the dry slot on this storm

Not necessarily...alot will depend on the track the storm takes as well as the strength and where it really begins to bomb out. I don't think we would really have to worry much about a dry slot on the Euro or GFS solution...perhaps possibly the Euro solution might have some issues somewhere.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice!

[dryslot]

lol.....Zachery Smith......ftw......

[moneypitmike]

Not necessarily...alot will depend on the track the storm takes as well as the strength and where it really begins to bomb out. I don't think we would really have to worry much about a dry slot on the Euro or GFS solution...perhaps possibly the Euro solution might have some issues somewhere.

Agreed. If the low's staying below your latitude, you'll be north of the dryslot throughout, right?

[snowNH]

12z GFS looks pretty bad to me.. Cutoff south of you which = way south of me

Go look at the 06z and come back

[weatherwiz]

12z GFS looks pretty bad to me.. Cutoff south of you which = way south of me

meh I'm not really worried about that type of stuff just yet...the evolution of the pattern and H5 looked fairly decent and to me looked like it trended towards the Euro a bit...not sure if that is exactly the case as I just got home a little while ago so missed all the discussion on that.

[dryslot]

Many features of the board are turned off at the moment because of the extreme volume....they will be turned back on once the volumes comes back to earth a bit. We usually get a really high spike around the time the Euro comes out and the following hour when people are digesting it.

Gotcha........

[Ginx snewx]

I have some more on my blog if you're interested

http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/coastal-flooding-records-benchmarks/

another issue too is wave action on top of the tidal departures which gets overlooked a lot.

Stamford is at 7.7 on Monday for normal

[CoastalWx]

One thing I like, is the nice cold high on this run. Good high...good times. I def feel better than I did 6 hrs ago, but man would I give for this to hold another 96 hrs. That's my only fear. Ensembles will be interesting for sure.

[weatherwiz]

Agreed. If the low's staying below your latitude, you'll be north of the dryslot throughout, right?

I'm sure there is more to this but I know you DO NOT want the 700mb low to track to your northwest as usually dry slot issues occur just to the south and west of the 700mb low track. I might not be totally correct on this but if you have a very rapidly deepening system and if it becomes occluded that shuts off the warm moist inflow and eventually you'd see lightening up of the precip. I also think in very strong cyclones they can sometimes wrap in some dry air as well which could start to kill the storm.

[Cold Miser]

I'm going to take what I learned from last weeks fiasco and step away from the boards for a time.

There's just too much at stake as far as my sanity goes to invest in 4-5 day out scenarios. While the fantasy sounds great at this point, I've got to bail in order to keep myself together.

[. . . going into periodic lurk mode as of now.]

[Clinch Leatherwood]

One thing I like, is the nice cold high on this run. Good high...good times. I def feel better than I did 6 hrs ago, but man would I give for this to hold another 96 hrs. That's my only fear. Ensembles will be interesting for sure.

When we started looking at this it was coming in very late Christmas night or early the next day. Now 5 days from now it's just around NC.

Sad kind of in a way that for us it's still way out there in the accuracy envelope.

[dryslot]

One thing I like, is the nice cold high on this run. Good high...good times. I def feel better than I did 6 hrs ago, but man would I give for this to hold another 96 hrs. That's my only fear. Ensembles will be interesting for sure.

Scott, Do you have acess to them?

[CT Rain]

One thing I like, is the nice cold high on this run. Good high...good times. I def feel better than I did 6 hrs ago, but man would I give for this to hold another 96 hrs. That's my only fear. Ensembles will be interesting for sure.

Agreed! I like the timing too... right after Christmas. Have a busy couple days before so won't be overly wrapped up in this threat. Will make the disappointment not as bad.

[butterfish55]

You guys are doing a job on yourselves. Heavy weenie suicide watch.

^^^^This is why I love this board and why I can't get off it in the winter^^^^

5 days out

"Looks historic...1978....2'-3'.....widespread power outages....How much for MBY......."

3 days out

"GFS sucks....trend is not our friend.....I'll take my 3-6 and me fine with it"

1day out

"Winter cancel....NAM sucks....Euro d10 looks EPIC"

I love it

PS- I think that "Feb 1978" should be on the list of words and phrases that the server blocks...That storm gets thrown into conversation way too often.

[Ginx snewx]

Agreed! I like the timing too... right after Christmas. Have a busy couple days before so won't be overly wrapped up in this threat. Will make the disappointment not as bad.

Ryan great links to your blog. I used to take care of the Pawcatuck Hurricane Barrierpump system, I spent a lot of time looking at the hand written data in that pump house, Baro etc. thanks brought back lots of memories.

[Tolland Death Band]

^^^^This is why I love this board and why I can't get off it in the winter^^^^

5 days out

"Looks historic...1978....2'-3'.....widespread power outages....How much for MBY......."

3 days out

"GFS sucks....trend is not our friend.....I'll take my 3-6 and me fine with it"

1day out

"Winter cancel....NAM sucks....Euro d10 looks EPIC"

I love it

PS- I think that "Feb 1978" should be on the list of words and phrases that the server blocks...That storm gets thrown into conversation way too often.

LOL

[weatherwiz]

Where does the Euro track the low from 120 HR to 144 HR? Is it inside the BM?

[moneypitmike]

^^^^This is why I love this board and why I can't get off it in the winter^^^^

5 days out

"Looks historic...1978....2'-3'.....widespread power outages....How much for MBY......."

3 days out

"GFS sucks....trend is not our friend.....I'll take my 3-6 and me fine with it"

1day out

"Winter cancel....NAM sucks....Euro d10 looks EPIC"

I love it

PS- I think that "Feb 1978" should be on the list of words and phrases that the server blocks...That storm gets thrown into conversation way too often.

It would be great if this board existed for 1978. I wonder what type of weenie posts would be posted .........

[Kbosch]

^^^^This is why I love this board and why I can't get off it in the winter^^^^

5 days out

"Looks historic...1978....2'-3'.....widespread power outages....How much for MBY......."

3 days out

"GFS sucks....trend is not our friend.....I'll take my 3-6 and me fine with it"

1day out

"Winter cancel....NAM sucks....Euro d10 looks EPIC"

I love it

PS- I think that "Feb 1978" should be on the list of words and phrases that the server blocks...That storm gets thrown into conversation way too often.

This sort of thing is as bad as the weenie suicides.

Many people, like myself for one, enjoy the process and watching a potential storm unfold. The majority of posters are well aware it's still far out and a lot can happen. As for comparisons, if that's what a storm looks like as currently depicted on the Euro, that's what it looks like. It is all quite interesting and informative, too.