dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How far west could this go? If it goes any further west it will be inland, So i think we want it more north and east........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Less likely, but it could get pulled in too fast and give us driving pingers. I think we would all still agree to some pingers with 12-15 if we had to surrender the 18-24+. We'll take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We are ok with this run, About .75" qpf, If it closes off any further south we will be pooched, If this comes another 75 miles north would be huge...... OK thanks, no telling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's probably prudent to remember that a few days ago the Euro had this coming close enough to present p-type issues for some. Be interesting to see if the models correct east or west the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'll give the euro a nod for consistency...that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How far west could this go? Our big run occluded this a bit south of LI. I think that's our key for getting the excessive amounts up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good info - thanks! The full moon played a significant role in the tides in 1978 blizzard. Interesting that tides were so high on the CT coast with generally NNE winds - the position of the low probably played a big role, keeping winds more easterly just to the E of LI Sound near Block Island and ACK and helping to pile up the water in the Sound. The best tide records in CT are at the Stamford Hurricane Barrier. 1992 nor'easter - 10.1' 1978 blizzard - 9.8' (4th highest tide in almost 100 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Becoming more confident in a major hit for the Mid Atlantic into SE New England. North of Rt 2, things aren't looking so great IMO, and even north of the pike, I'm not so sure. The trend for anticyclonic wave breaking over Ontario is more realistic and doesn't seem like the trend is reversible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I have seen a lot of these lows that bomb down south and then basically jump east northeast offshore to a triple point after occlusion. So thus from day 5 to day 6 the surface low seems to have shot way offshore. Generally they have a sharp WSW to ENE cutoff of heavy snowfall. The ECM is weird with its SW to NE back edge of heaviest snow. So get this thing to like DE Bay at occlusion and I'd be more confident of a big hit. But it could certainly edge north a bit ...saw that also in past events. I personally don't care what the ensembles look like. 5-6 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm starting to see this thing as being so massive in terms of areal coverage that it may not matter if it passes some 100 miles E of ideal - you'd still be close enough to the gravity well to be sucked into the impact envelope (so to speak). This is the point I was trying to make earlier today, think 93 only us in Syracuse, this is a massive storm on the Euro, just tremendous inflow. I mean 60knots from the East. QPFis incredible and is going to be huge in the higher els including the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good info - thanks! I have some more on my blog if you're interested http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/coastal-flooding-records-benchmarks/ another issue too is wave action on top of the tidal departures which gets overlooked a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 WHy do the qpf totals from SV differ from WSI for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoboMaine Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How far west could this go? Approximately the same amount of deviation to the SE....... Sitting in Maine with open eyes, optomistic disbelief and a knowing feeling that the shovel will stay safe for at least another few days, probably longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WHy do the qpf totals from SV differ from WSI for the Euro? Who cares. It's a lot of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm starting to see this thing as being so massive in terms of areal coverage that it may not matter if it passes some 100 miles E of ideal - you'd still be close enough to the gravity well to be sucked into the impact envelope (so to speak). How far north of the MA/NH border does the heavy precip get? I'm praying for a good hit to the Monadnock area as the last couple of years have left us a little snow deprived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WHy do the qpf totals from SV differ from WSI for the Euro? I'm not sure, but I've always found the SV totals to be weenie totals...really high. The WSI totals always look a bit more realistic. I'm not sure how SV gets their data, but I certainly trust a vendor like WSI more. Either way, its still a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WHy do the qpf totals from SV differ from WSI for the Euro? Do you have SV map access? If so, where does the 1" QPF contour line up for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Who cares. It's a lot of QPF. I was just wondering which one was more accurate..because the SV qpf was well over 2+ on the map I saw. Hopefully this isn't OT for the old man in the shoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Do you have SV map access? If so, where does the 1" QPF contour line up for you? I'll send to you what I saw..Hang on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was just wondering which one was more accurate..because the SV qpf was well over 2+ on the map I saw. Hopefully this isn't OT for the old man in the shoe I don't see a lot of 2" totals on WSI. Lots of 1.5-2" totals it looks like. And the wind!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm pretty optimistic, but this could still slide SE...even if it phases. I think its silly for people to be almost guaranteeing that we get crushed at this time range...thats all. Speaking for someone who's outside the 'crushing' zone, I am most optimistic that some folks in SNE will have a good storm. I'm more confident that God's Country will be on the outside looking in for this one. I'm not sure where the system will get the wherewithall to come further NW. I'm comforted that we're still several days out so perhaps things can shift. Unforutnatley, I think the more likely adjustments will be SE rather than north or nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This needs to be emphasized very much ...formulated into a hand, and smacked across Kevin's face in a repeated back and forth pattern: CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS POINT...AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT. THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why can I not send a PM? is that feature turned off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow...the GFS doesn't look bad at all and I can't believe the consistency on the Euro regarding the strength of this...quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This needs to be emphasized very much ...formulated into a hand, and smacked across Kevin's face in a repeated back and forth pattern: CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS POINT...AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT. THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. Caution should always be advised 3+ days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Becoming more confident in a major hit for the Mid Atlantic into SE New England. North of Rt 2, things aren't looking so great IMO, and even north of the pike, I'm not so sure. The trend for anticyclonic wave breaking over Ontario is more realistic and doesn't seem like the trend is reversible. Well that's a bummer read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How far north of the MA/NH border does the heavy precip get? I'm praying for a good hit to the Monadnock area as the last couple of years have left us a little snow deprived. You're not alone in that dept. Welcome to the board! As Tip stated this storm could be big enough to get most of us in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well that's a bummer read. Remember, he's just being a realist and keeping us sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 March 2001 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Becoming more confident in a major hit for the Mid Atlantic into SE New England. North of Rt 2, things aren't looking so great IMO, and even north of the pike, I'm not so sure. The trend for anticyclonic wave breaking over Ontario is more realistic and doesn't seem like the trend is reversible. could you offer an explanation please? this have to do with the NAO/blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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