CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That's exactly how I felt yesterday at this time. I hate seeing these solutions 5 days out, but don't get me wrong..it's weenie candy. Very interested to see the ensembles. I think peeps need to keep this in check for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You get 12+ if you're near MHT. Actually on this storm you wanna try and get in the deform band as it pivots.. and not in the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So much can change... But the strong signal for a huge bomb SOMEWHERE within 100 miles of the BM has been on all the models pretty much. And as Tip said...if it's this strong, we might have breathing room as long as we don't get too close to the warm side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow.. so let me get this straight it's basically 2' from RIC BWI DC PHL NYC BOS? more SE of there and less NW? That would top '96 in terms of NESIS I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 I personally don't care what the ensembles look like. 5-6 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Does the heavy snow make it all the way to Portland, ME? We are ok with this run, About .75" qpf, If it closes off any further south we will be pooched, If this comes another 75 miles north would be huge...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 2- 2.75 inches total qpf from BOS to HFD on that line 1.75 to the NW and down from there Holy ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'd like to see the ensembles tick back close to the benchmark...then I'll feel really good. I'd like to wake up and have it be sunday and this was still the forecast. So much time we have to be realistic. Weatherfella luckily I'm all stocked up on batteries and all that stuff after the hurricane whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NYC/Long Island haven't seen a nor'easter produce major coastal flooding AND heavy snow (1 foot+) in a long, long time. The last one may have been Feb 4-7, 1920. NYC/LI were spared major flooding in the blizzard of '78 because it bombed ESE of LI, and winds were mainly from the NNE and N. The March 1993 storm had very strong ENE winds but the storm moved too fast to allow the water to really pile up in LI Sound. In my experience, in order to produce major coastal flooding in NYC and LI, the wind direction generally needs to be ENE or E. 1978 produced severe coastal flooding in many places on LIS. Was some of the worst (outside of 92) in many locations. 92 would have done it had it been just a hair colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You guys know this isnt done coming NW right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ecstasy is the only way to describe it. Euphoric Massive Wood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I personally don't care what the ensembles look like. 5-6 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I hate to ask the how much in my backyard question but you guys are all down south and I can't see the Euro maps. Dentrite said maybe .10" in Lebanon and someone said 12" in MHT. Does the QPF get up to the White Mountains for the ski areas. Im in Ply NH and just reading between the lines maybe .25" here? If anyone that has the QPF maps I would really appreciate if you could look for our area. Thanks Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would say you all better hope this occludes further north than Norfolk because I can't recall when SNE got in the bulls eye for snowfall with a low cutting off that far south. It seems like some lucky quirk that the ECM manages to pull heavy snow that far north of the low. I think you need this thing up to at least DE Bay..... Let's have it stall south of LI. That'll work. Congrats to most of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I personally don't care what the ensembles look like. 5-6 runs in a row I really wouldn't care if it was 10 runs in a row...its still 4-5 days out and that means this is far from certain. This could be a 100% complete whiff still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 insane guys just insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Eastern Mass will get crushed by this beast....I live 400 feet from the Atlantic side of Hull Mass..We had historical flooding here in Hull with the bliz of 78 along with 2feet of snow...drifitng...I see Taunton pulling out all the stops on this by tomorrow morning....gotta prepare the public for this... would love to see the qpf on this for eastern mass...gonna be huge! also the ocean is rather high right now with current minor to even moderate coastal flooding that occured yesterday in Scituate Mass... serious stuff folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You guys know this isnt done coming NW right? When did it start coming? Euro pretty much like 0Z and that was east of 12Z. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I really wouldn't care if it was 10 runs in a row...its still 4-5 days out and that means this is far from certain. This could be a 100% complete whiff still. . . . Speaking the truth. Time to get myself back in check with reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You guys are doing a job on yourselves. Heavy weenie suicide watch. I don't believe it can get any better then this so the only direction from here would be the opposite, But, If most still ended with 12" i don't think anyone would complain, Or would they........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 1978 produced severe coastal flooding in many places on LIS. Was some of the worst (outside of 92) in many locations. 92 would have done it had it been just a hair colder. The best tide records in CT are at the Stamford Hurricane Barrier. 1992 nor'easter - 10.1' 1978 blizzard - 9.8' (4th highest tide in almost 100 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 I really wouldn't care if it was 10 runs in a row...its still 4-5 days out and that means this is far from certain. This could be a 100% complete whiff still. Hey suit yourself. Let those of us that want to enjoy this special time enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I really wouldn't care if it was 10 runs in a row...its still 4-5 days out and that means this is far from certain. This could be a 100% complete whiff still. In case anyone is wondering I kidnapped Will an hour ago and am using his computer. It's been 4-5 days out for 2 days which is reason alone to be cautious as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I hate to ask the how much in my backyard question but you guys are all down south and I can't see the Euro maps. Dentrite said maybe .10" in Lebanon and someone said 12" in MHT. Does the QPF get up to the White Mountains for the ski areas. Im in Ply NH and just reading between the lines maybe .25" here? If anyone that has the QPF maps I would really appreciate if you could look for our area. Thanks Gene I'd say that's about right Gene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I really wouldn't care if it was 10 runs in a row...its still 4-5 days out and that means this is far from certain. This could be a 100% complete whiff still. Less likely, but it could get pulled in too fast and give us driving pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'd like to see the ensembles tick back close to the benchmark...then I'll feel really good. Yes, but seeing the 12z GFS Ensm make a sizable leap W leads one to believe some event is going to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Less likely, but it could get pulled in too fast and give us driving pingers. How far west could this go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Less likely, but it could get pulled in too fast and give us driving pingers. It's 5 days out. People can be excited if they want, but take a deep breath and relax. Lots can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 When did it start coming? Euro pretty much like 0Z and that was east of 12Z. Just sayin... Lol. I was going to say "wake me up when it starts to". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Less likely, but it could get pulled in too fast and give us driving pingers. I'm pretty optimistic, but this could still slide SE...even if it phases. I think its silly for people to be almost guaranteeing that we get crushed at this time range...thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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