SJonesWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We've had a bit of a dought for major storms. Can't complain about snowfall as a whole, since 07-08 and 08-09 were pretty good. But It's going on 4 years without a 12"+ storm same here. have had a couple 11 inchers in that span, but nothing 12+. unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At this point if you're on the American wx boards at 1233 pm or posting from you're phone at work ..you're pretty invested Ok, ok...but not emotionally invested. No meltdown en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Personally I think that whole argument is just weenie talk. Models don't have major misalignments between upper level features and the surface reflection.. if they did they would never even be able to get a 6 hour forecast correct. That's a pretty basic aspect of storm physics models would have to get right in order to predict anything. Usually there's a reason in the upper levels causing the storm to be so far east (like leading PVA that disrupts the storm cyclogenesis). And they never do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It has a bomb over Hatteras then nearly due east from there. Alas--what did it have at 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS today and last night's Euro bring quite the blizzard to you and I.....verbatim. I;d like to see the EC stay west somewhat west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Alas--what did it have at 00z? It went fishing. Here is last nights 144h panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So let's see....I'm not sure why so negative? GFS and Euro have converged on a pretty big event for the most popuated areas. CMC went east but it still have a huge event and it is within clear striking distance of a blizzard. Besides, it's a 3rd string model even behind GFS. Crazy Uncle has the whacky idea of wrapping up a bomb near HSE and then moving it towards the Mediterranean. Not gonna happen. Euro should pretty much hold. I'm feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I;d like to see the EC stay west somewhat west. I would like the EC to not change one iota from last night but that's me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ok I do think the Euro will shift east today but not enough to take a snowstorm away from most of us. Maybe a 30 mile shift east or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would like the EC to not change one iota from last night but that's me... Count me in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would like the EC to not change one iota from last night but that's me... Yeah, I had no problem with the Euro last night. Hold serve plz. 12z GFS Enm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The gradient on the 12z GFS is similar to the blizzard of '78, just shifted east so the highest winds are just offshore. Verbatim, the 12z GFS has ~50 kt winds for 6 hours at Chatham, MA: http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kcqx It also has a 65 to 70 kt jet at 850 mb impacting much of SE New England including SE MA, RI, SE CT and the Twin Forks of LI. I am skeptical that sustained winds will actually reach 50 kt anywhere given experience with past storms. I did a little research, and can't find any nor'easter in the past 50 years that produced 50 kt or greater sustained winds on land in New England or the mid-Atlantic. Here are the highest winds in some recent ones: Mar 1962 "Ash Wednesday" Nor'easter- BID gust 73 kt Feb 1978 Blizzard - BOS sustained 44 kt, gust 69 kt CQX gust 81 kt FMH and ACK sustained 35 kt, gust 55 kt ISP sustained 40 kt, gust 52 kt Oct 1991 "Perfect Storm"- CQX gust 68 kt ACK sustained 40 kt, gust 55 kt Dec 1992 Nor'easter - LGA sustained 45 kt, gust 67 kt Mar 1993 Blizzard - LGA sustained 45 kt, gust 60 kt BOS sustained 47 kt; gust 70 kt PVC sustained 41 kt; gust 70 kt Fire Island, NY gust 79 kt Mar 2010 Nor'easter - JFK sustained 45 kt, gust 64 kt ACY sustained 35 kt, gust 63 kt Bridgehampton, NY gust 60 kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Count me in on that. Wagons West!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It went fishing. Here is last nights 144h panel. Based on that, Andy's statement makes me think it's even worse now. IIIRC, I think he said it headed east from hatteras. I wonder when the last time the Mohawk REginoal school district went an entire December without a snow day.........a pretty rare occurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hmmm....lots of ensemble support now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Based on that, Andy's statement makes me think it's even worse now. IIIRC, I think he said it headed east from hatteras. I wonder when the last time the Mohawk REginoal school district went an entire December without a snow day.........a pretty rare occurance. Mike..the Ukie has been horrendous. Almost as bad as the GFS this cold season. It has an extreme cold south and east bias..and it's been even worse than usual this year.Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think I just has a seizure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Count me in on that. The voice from God's country says to please revert to yesterday. We're in the scrooge zone here. While there's still several days, I fear the correction vector is to the SE not the NW. I really, really hope I'm proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Based on that, Andy's statement makes me think it's even worse now. IIIRC, I think he said it headed east from hatteras. I wonder when the last time the Mohawk REginoal school district went an entire December without a snow day.........a pretty rare occurance. They're in school next week??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Mike..the Ukie has been horrendous. Almost as bad as the GFS this cold season. It has an extreme cold south and east bias..and it's been even worse than usual this year.Toss it The UK is frequently bad with these storms. Funky solutions. I think overall the GFS has been decent so far this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Mike..the Ukie has been horrendous. Almost as bad as the GFS this cold season. It has an extreme cold south and east bias..and it's been even worse than usual this year.Toss it I'm happy to put that in the trash heap. I hoping against so many of you I feel bad. There's a lot of hope for the EC to hold/nudge east. That will lend credence to my fears with the system. Of course, it's hard for us to all win in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 The UK is frequently bad with these storms. Funky solutions. I think overall the GFS has been decent so far this December. I would be willing to bet you a 12 pack that you won't be able to find more than 3 people here that would agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nada for the kids here so far this school year. We have had a few mornings with 2 or 3 inches of lake effect stuff on the roads in parts of the district, but not even a delay. Of course next week wouldn't matter...no school. They're in school next week??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm happy to put that in the trash heap. I hoping against so many of you I feel bad. There's a lot of hope for the EC to hold/nudge east. That will lend credence to my fears with the system. Of course, it's hard for us to all win in SNE. I would gladly throw you under Randy's bus if it meant I could get a wind-blown foot. Nothing personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro gives 0.25+ for tonight's event inside 495 in MA including of course the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The gradient on the 12z GFS is similar to the blizzard of '78, just shifted east so the highest winds are just offshore. Verbatim, the 12z GFS has ~50 kt winds for 6 hours at Chatham, MA: http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kcqx It also has a 65 to 70 kt jet at 850 mb impacting much of SE New England including SE MA, RI, SE CT and the Twin Forks of LI. I am skeptical that sustained winds will actually reach 50 kt anywhere given experience with past storms. I did a little research, and can't find any nor'easter in the past 50 years that produced 50 kt or greater sustained winds on land in New England or the mid-Atlantic. Here are the highest winds in some recent ones: Feb 1978 Blizzard - BOS sustained 44 kt, gust 69 kt CQX gust 81 kt FMH and ACK sustained 35 kt, gust 55 kt ISP sustained 40 kt, gust 52 kt Oct 1991 "Perfect Storm"- CQX gust 68 kt ACK sustained 40 kt, gust 55 kt Dec 1992 Nor'easter - LGA sustained 45 kt, gust 67 kt Mar 1993 Blizzard - LGA sustained 45 kt, gust 60 kt BOS sustained 47 kt; gust 70 kt PVC sustained 41 kt; gust 70 kt Fire Island, NY gust 79 kt Mar 2010 Nor'easter - JFK sustained 45 kt, gust 64 kt ACY sustained 35 kt, gust 63 kt Bridgehampton, NY gust 60 kt Nice research. What about the Jan 2005 Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 They're in school next week??? No, Christmas vacation. So, tomorrow's the last day in December. Geographically, we're the largest district in the state. Something like 400 square miles or something from the 9 towns that make up the district (all for a graduating class of about 118 people. lol). It doesn't take much to make for closures here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro gives 0.25+ for tonight's event inside 495 in MA including of course the Cape. Sounds similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro will hold serve or possibly come a bit west based on my sense looking at it through 54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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