weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:46 AM, CT Blizz said: Game on for 1-2 feet for most less NW. Then we torch late next week CT only has around .50'' QPF...maybe say .40 to .60 (I haven't seen maps so I don't know exacts) but how would we see widespread 1-2 ft in CT with QPF totals like that unless we have sick ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:53 AM, weatherwiz said: CT only has around .50'' QPF...maybe say .40 to .60 (I haven't seen maps so I don't know exacts) but how would we see widespread 1-2 ft in CT with QPF totals like that unless we have sick ratios? CT has well over 1 inch except far NW sections. And who cares about qpf now anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Meanwhile the 6z GFS is not looking bad at 42 HR...just about the same with regards to the northern stream energy as the 0z run and 6z NAM but it's slower with the southern s/w and stronger and has that closed off look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:54 AM, CT Blizz said: CT has well over 1 inch except far NW sections. And who cares about qpf now anyway I'm definitely excited about this storm but there's a whole lot that can go wrong, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:55 AM, CT Rain said: I'm definitely excited about this storm but there's a whole lot that can go wrong, unfortunately. I hope we can get it back to how it looked yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:54 AM, CT Blizz said: CT has well over 1 inch except far NW sections. And who cares about qpf now anyway Will said here was around .50'' maybe a bit less. I agree about the QPF thing but you threw out 1-2ft and was not sure how that would happen given those QPF totals depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:56 AM, weatherwiz said: Will said here was around .50'' maybe a bit less. I agree about the QPF thing but you threw out 1-2ft and was not sure how that would happen given those QPF totals depicted. Will said around 1 inch for you..not .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:58 AM, CT Blizz said: Will said around 1 inch for you..not .50 Yeah you're right, just went back and double-checked. Swore I saw half an inch lol. Getting pretty tired, haven't slept in 21 hours now and don't see myself sleeping anytime soon. Just drank 3 cups of coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:58 AM, CT Blizz said: Will said around 1 inch for you..not .50 Yeah probably over an inch for most of CT on the Euro. Unfortunately I'd like to see this slow down a bit and also would like to see the other models draw this thing in with a more negative trough developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:01 AM, weatherwiz said: Yeah you're right, just went back and double-checked. Swore I saw half an inch lol. Getting pretty tired, haven't slept in 21 hours now and don't see myself sleeping anytime soon. Just drank 3 cups of coffee. Smart. You'll maybe live to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:02 AM, CT Blizz said: Smart. You'll maybe live to 30 As long as I live to witness whatever occurs on Monday, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice to see the 6Z GFS moving even closer to the Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS looks good for E SNE... definitely moving west and slowing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks like the epic blizzard that the Euro had yesterday is more and more unlikely. No model shows the phase so early with a stalled out storm off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:08 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS looks nice. I just wish this damn thing would slow down like the Euro had earlier lol but can't really complain with a foot of windswept snow. 2 feet sounds nicer hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS is a HUGE hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not quite Euro-like but certainly Euro-esque to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have to say what I'm most impressed about this storm is the central pressure as the thing passes near the Cape. The GFS is a bombing 966 as it approaches SE NE. We saw the Euro at 959mb. That's really really really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 And one main reason no model now shows such an early phase is that the vort near southern California is verifying weaker and a bit slower than the earlier ECMWF forecasts suggested it would be. On 12/23/2010 at 10:08 AM, CT Rain said: It looks like the epic blizzard that the Euro had yesterday is more and more unlikely. No model shows the phase so early with a stalled out storm off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A little piece from the BOX AFD...sounds encouraging THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVINGPHASING ISSUES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JETSTREAM. OVERALL DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z HPC/00Z ECMWFAND THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS. THIS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE CENTERCLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK POSITION APPROACHING 12Z MONDAY.IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMWOULD INCREASE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA PRIMARILY FOR THESUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW MAINTAINED CHANCE POPSACROSS THE AREA GIVEN OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DISPARITIESAND LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:00 AM, dendrite said: heh I've just sifted through the 26 pages of comments/images that were posted since I went to bed. I smiled. I grimaced. But, finally--here's one that gives a nice grin. Still concerned I'll be on the outside looking in. Appears to me that the correction vector at this point is east, not west. Hopefully will at least get a moderate snow and some wind in GC. The EC has come up north like I had hoped, but I'm bummed it's become so progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:16 AM, jconsor said: And one main reason no model now shows such an early phase is that the vort near southern California is verifying weaker and a bit slower than the earlier ECMWF forecasts suggested it would be. Yup... and that could really screw the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Does unisys do off hour runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:15 AM, weatherwiz said: Not quite Euro-like but certainly Euro-esque to some degree. Definitely, and the GFS ensembles from 0z indicated the trend west might happen. I expect it to continue through 12z by maybe another 50 miles or so. GFS ensembles mean from 0z already had 0.5 qpf here, and this is a bit west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:12 AM, weatherwiz said: GFS is a HUGE hit. 3-6" for GC. A big step up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:36 AM, moneypitmike said: 3-6" for GC. A big step up. Yes, put me in the .5-.75 bracket. The past two runs have each come appreciably west. I'm looking for just a bit more at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just saw the Euro ... yup, I'll take that! That run was pretty good for my area but it was a significant change from its 12z run so I can't put too much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OKX's thoughts on potential track FORECAST WILL BE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF AND THEENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS BRINGS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAROUND 18Z SUNDAY AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK 06Z MONDAY AND NORTHEAST OFTHE AREA...NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 10:52 AM, weatherwiz said: OKX's thoughts on potential track FORECAST WILL BE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF AND THEENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS BRINGS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAROUND 18Z SUNDAY AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK 06Z MONDAY AND NORTHEAST OFTHE AREA...NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE MONDAY. Sounds like a night time snowstorm for us I Would rather see it snowing heavy during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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