Hurricane Nate

[WintersNotComing]

That's exactly why I was pulling for TS Maria to come our way but most everyone was wishing it out to sea. Bad logic because we could really have used that rain. Triangle area is bone dry, and has been for some time now. So hopefully people will learn from their error in reason and logic and hope for Nate to come at us.

The storm is going to take whatever path it does no matter what we "logically" hope for.


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[avalanche]

Twc, for what it's worth, has moved the cone of uncertainty east a tad. Interesting to see what tonight's models hold for its future. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

Don't worry. My wife and I have rented a cabin on the Linville River this coming week. It will rain.

In fact if you're on the linville river in Avery/Northern McDowell that might be a precip max from this storm. Right on the east facing slopes. 

[jburns]

16 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

In fact if you're on the linville river in Avery/Northern McDowell that might be a precip max from this storm. Right on the east facing slopes. 

Yep.  That's the spot and I pretty much expect to be in the bullseye. this was to be a part leaf watching and visiting my youngest daughter who has been working a Grandfather all summer caring for the animals.  Too bad I'm not younger, I could take full advantage of this. Oh well, four days is a long time but I'll take some extra vitamins, drag my wife into the hot tub and see what happens.  lol 

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, Taylorsweather said:

 From GSP at 3pm:  rainfall amounts are indeed trending up.

They are god?

[frazdaddy]

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Yep.  That's the spot and I pretty much expect to be in the bullseye. this was to be a part leaf watching and visiting my youngest daughter who has been working a Grandfather all summer caring for the animals.  Too bad I'm not younger, I could take full advantage of this. Oh well, four days is a long time but I'll take some extra vitamins, drag my wife into the hot tub and see what happens.  lol 

You better wear your water wings.

[LithiaWx]

Nate has FFC mentioning the possibility of TS watches for north and central GA.  Looks like a fun storm for ATL. 

[mackerel_sky]

I bet GSP airport gets 1" of rain or less from Nate!

[LithiaWx]

TS watches up for north and central GA.

[downeastnc]

The flight level winds in Nate show well how lop sided fast moving systems tend to be especially when they are unorganized to begin with overall....hurricane force winds on the east side and almost nothing on all the others....

 

[LithiaWx]

Precip max over NC mtns 

[downeastnc]

It will be interesting to see how well Nate can wrap storms around a center moving 22 mph.....still that speed should also drag the wind field inland quite a ways and the wet SE flow will pummel the SC/NC mts with rain.....

[LithiaWx]

16 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The flight level winds in Nate show well how lop sided fast moving systems tend to be especially when they are unorganized to begin with overall....hurricane force winds on the east side and almost nothing on all the others....

 

He’s been steadily gaining strength today.  Looks like he is finally getting it together to me and gaining organization. 

[jrips27]

Hurricane Nate officially. 

[downeastnc]

Looks good for now.....huge flare up but the center is moving really fast, I am not sure there is even a example of a RI occurring in a storm with this kind of forward speed....the upside is the small wind field and forward speed means the peak winds will literally last a few hrs at most.....current wind field is still extremely lopsided...no strong winds at all outside of the NE and SE quads....it will also be interesting to see how well the FL winds mix down with the forward speed being so high....he seems left of track to me as well....still think MS/AL maybe even AL/FL for landfall, New Orleans being spared looks better and better each run being left of the center landfall will result in little impact. 

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.1N  87.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.

[NavarreDon]

Morning SE peeps! I've been in the Nate thread on the Tropical forum but had to pop in and say what's up. We are all prepped and ready. I will give some obs when possible!

[NavarreDon]

6 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Looks good for now.....huge flare up but the center is moving really fast, I am not sure there is even a example of a RI occurring in a storm with this kind of forward speed....the upside is the small wind field and forward speed means the peak winds will literally last a few hrs at most.....current wind field is still extremely lopsided...no strong winds at all outside of the NE and SE quads....it will also be interesting to see how well the FL winds mix down with the forward speed being so high....he seems left of track to me as well....still think MS/AL maybe even AL/FL for landfall, New Orleans being spared looks better and better each run being left of the center landfall will result in little impact. 

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.1N  87.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.

Opal was a very fast mover, 23 mph at some points however I'm not sure how fast she was moving in her RI phase (42mb in a little over 12hrs!)

[Moonhowl]

7 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Morning SE peeps! I've been in the Nate thread on the Tropical forum but had to pop in and say what's up. We are all prepped and ready. I will give some obs when possible!

Good luck!  Hoping it stays far enough west to keep the winds down for both of us.  We need the rain but I don't need a tree on the house. 

[mackerel_sky]

What a pathetic " hurricane" looks like a TS on satellite now. What a dumpster fire. No RI with this one, and that's a good thing!

[Solak]

Impressive winds on the N & E side of this halfacane

[FLweather]

Wow small area of 83kts.  So appears to be gaining strength if 83 to 96 kts would be roughly 95-110 mph winds.

[downeastnc]

2 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Opal was a very fast mover, 23 mph at some points however I'm not sure how fast she was moving in her RI phase (42mb in a little over 12hrs!)

Opal  RI'd while still moving slowly, or at least at a typical speed, she lost organization as she accelerated, Nate is tiny and has a super small and weak wind field so hopefully there wont be to much to worry about for most he will be like a strong TS. 

I doubt he gets to much stronger than he is now, though anything can happen with these things this year it seems....he has maybe 12-18 more hrs over water and water temps drop to 80 or lower the last 100 miles or so to the coast, though his forward speed should mitigate their effect......if anything he will be ahead of schedule, the wind field break down is very telling....outside of a small area in the NE quad there is no hurricane force winds...and gust to hurricane force probably are not occurring more than 50 miles from the center on the east side and thats over water....

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.

[downeastnc]

The center is only 200ish miles from the coast on the last center fix from the HH ( well if you count the Miss Delta as coast) and at the speed its moving thats only 8-10 hrs out...weather will go down hill fast then improve quickly if he hits the coast at that speed. HH are not finding a closed eye and on that last pass it was amazing how lopsided the storm is there are barely TS force winds on the NW side at the surface even near the center, east of the center there are 100 mph FL winds, the highest surface wind I have seen so far is 80 mph and it looks like the area of winds that high is narrow maybe 10 miles or so on the east and NE side. Worse case will be for this to come in just west of Mobile Bay..

[LithiaWx]

I’m still going with a cat 2.  He’s almost there and satellite presentation looks better.  He’s just running out of time.  Atlanta is still going to take a quick **** from him.  Gusty winds and a bundle of rain enroute.  He’s looking menacing to be honest.  We have a cat 1-2 bearing down on the gulf coast then ripping north and east.  This is a big deal folks. 

[LithiaWx]

My insurance company is “concerned” lol

[downeastnc]

10 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I’m still going with a cat 2.  He’s almost there and satellite presentation looks better.  He’s just running out of time.  Atlanta is still going to take a quick **** from him.  Gusty winds and a bundle of rain enroute.  He’s looking menacing to be honest.  We have a cat 1-2 bearing down on the gulf coast then ripping north and east.  This is a big deal folks. 

 

He does look decent but the HH tell a different story....the wind field is small...its gonna be tough for it to expand much with such a high forward speed. Winds over 50 mph are only out 50-60 miles or so from the center to the NE and hurricane force winds maybe 30-40 miles tops and even then its Cat 1ish....he might get to 95-100 mph by landfall but again that should be only in a very very small area within 20-30 miles in the NE quad. Folks 75-125 miles east of the landfall might get gust into the 50-60's right on the coast....west of the center even right in the center wont see hardly anything, there are no winds to even 40-50 right on the center on the west side of Nate. With the small wind field it will die quickly once on shore still places 50-100 miles east of the center might get gust 50-60 inland a ways....but storms without well organized cores have trouble bringing as lot of wind inland with them, he is going 22-25 mph though.

 

[LithiaWx]

16 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

He does look decent but the HH tell a different story....the wind field is small...its gonna be tough for it to expand much with such a high forward speed. Winds over 50 mph are only out 50-60 miles or so from the center to the NE and hurricane force winds maybe 30-40 miles tops and even then its Cat 1ish....he might get to 95-100 mph by landfall but again that should be only in a very very small area within 20-30 miles in the NE quad. Folks 75-125 miles east of the landfall might get gust into the 50-60's right on the coast....west of the center even right in the center wont see hardly anything, there are no winds to even 40-50 right on the center on the west side of Nate. With the small wind field it will die quickly once on shore still places 50-100 miles east of the center might get gust 50-60 inland a ways....but storms without well organized cores have trouble bringing as lot of wind inland with them, he is going 22-25 mph though.

 

NHC says he is a possibly conservative 80kt storm right now.  They are now going with a 105mph storm at LF. 

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, LithiaWx said:

NHC says he is a possibly conservative 80kt storm right now.  They are now going with a 105mph storm at LF. 

Certainly possible but again it will be in a very small area...the overall impact of this storm for everyone outside of 30-40 miles east of the center will be like a strong TS...so thats a good thing. Then again it could go nuts over the next 6 hrs and hit as a Cat 3 which would be par for the course this season lol. There is a big difference between winds 40-50 mph and winds 60-80 mph as far as tree damage etc....it just doesnt have enough time to grow its wind field very much in the next 10-12 hrs....the Google Earth tracker for the HH is awesome in that it lets you click and see the data from every single drop if you want, that last pass had one that hit 95 at the surface but it looks like as gust since FL winds were lower than surface...I could see some offshore islands and beaches getting gust to 80-110 mph right in the NE/East quads near the center.

[LithiaWx]

6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Certainly possible but again it will be in a very small area...the overall impact of this storm for everyone outside of 30-40 miles east of the center will be like a strong TS...so thats a good thing. Then again it could go nuts over the next 6 hrs and hit as a Cat 3 which would be par for the course this season lol. There is a big difference between winds 40-50 mph and winds 60-80 mph as far as tree damage etc....it just doesnt have enough time to grow its wind field very much in the next 10-12 hrs....the Google Earth tracker for the HH is awesome in that it lets you click and see the data from every single drop if you want, that last pass had one that hit 95 at the surface but it looks like as gust since FL winds were lower than surface...I could see some offshore islands and beaches getting gust to 80-110 mph right in the NE/East quads near the center.

I’m also starting to think cat 3 isn’t as ridiculous as what it seemed yesterday.  Small storm is good but somebody is going to take one heck of a whack from Nate.  May not be a large area like you say but damage and surge are incoming to the gulf.  The MS gulf coast is one of the more beautiful areas of the US.  Would be a shame to see them hurt too bad. 

[Lookout]

20 hours ago, NEGa said:

Took four very long days to get my power back lol. Still have trees down around town. Two in one year? Wild lol

Yeah, that's a hell of a long time to go without it. It's really wild when you consider it didn't involve an ice storm lol. I still can't believe i didn't lose it...i really do consider it a small miracle because i have issues with the power going out on sunny days around here. 

1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

I’m still going with a cat 2.  He’s almost there and satellite presentation looks better.  He’s just running out of time.  Atlanta is still going to take a quick **** from him.  Gusty winds and a bundle of rain enroute.  He’s looking menacing to be honest.  We have a cat 1-2 bearing down on the gulf coast then ripping north and east.  This is a big deal folks. 

It looks like the worst of the winds should stay to the north and west of atlanta but it's going to be interesting to see just how far inland substantial wind gusts will occur and what type of impact there will be.  It's quite unusual to say the least to see a tropical system, much less a strong cat 1/low end cat 2, making landfall along the gulf coast with a forward motion of damn near 30 mph. In fact, i'd wager that might be some kind of record for the gulf coast. Regardless, To think that it will go from being on the coast to eastern tn in 12 hours or around 300 miles is freaking insane. Although the area impacted will be rather small to the east of the center,  i think the distance inland where some damaging gusts could occur is likely to be rather impressive. The saving grace of course is it's not stronger than it is at landfall and even the areas hit hardest won't get high winds but for more than a couple of hours. 

We have really seen some storms with some unusual characteristics, speeds, and tracks this year and nate is no exception. It might not be the strongest or largest storm ever to make landfall but it certainly is unique due to it's super fast motion and it's going to be really fascinating to see what areas well inland end up getting.