downeastnc Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Definitely has my attention here in Macon. Will be fascinating to watch unfold over the next couple of days. Just the thought of having 2 tropical storms/hurricanes impacting some of the same area within a month is wild. Also, I have a really hard time imagining future-Nate being limited to Cat 1 strength with all that time over water and mostly favorable conditions. Unless there's more land interaction than expected I could see it getting quite a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Definitely has my attention here in Macon. Will be fascinating to watch unfold over the next couple of days. Just the thought of having 2 tropical storms/hurricanes impacting some of the same area within a month is wild. Also, I have a really hard time imagining future-Nate being limited to Cat 1 strength with all that time over water and mostly favorable conditions. Unless there's more land interaction than expected I could see it getting quite a bit stronger. Intensity forecast is a crap shoot, I think the models limit it since its moving fast plus land interaction will prevent a solid core from developing....again though if this year has shown us anything making assumptions on strength is a foolish thing to do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 Euro caved to the GFS, came west into LA as well, all the major models hit LA now.....Euro also much weaker with the system as well...all the major models have a TS at landfall....honestly that's good for me IMBY I don't want any rain, keep it all out west of I-95 and I am a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 06Z GFS pretty much drops it altogether......still brings a lot of moisture into the SE though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 We have TS Nate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 TD 16 has been upgraded to TS Nate. Max sustained 40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 6 hours ago, downeastnc said: Euro caved to the GFS, came west into LA as well, all the major models hit LA now.....Euro also much weaker with the system as well...all the major models have a TS at landfall....honestly that's good for me IMBY I don't want any rain, keep it all out west of I-95 and I am a happy camper. Hope there are extensive enough bands to give us some rain. Triangle area is a dustbowl. Can't even recall the last time we had measureable rain its such a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Current model runs are trending weaker and west! We will be lucky to get a few showers from this, if anything at all, in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Current model runs are trending weaker and west! We will be lucky to get a few showers from this, if anything at all, in the Carolinas 06Z GFS was actually wetter than the the last two runs....a large sloppy unorganized system will bring a lot of more moisture over a larger area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, downeastnc said: 06Z GFS was actually wetter than the the last two runs....a large sloppy unorganized system will bring a lot of more moisture over a larger area..... I agree, This would be a great time for goofy to get it right. We are pretty dry in the middle of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 UK has been the most consistent model, has what looks to be high end TS or low Cat 1. Nice QPF min over ColdRain and myself...seems right. Mack get's good rains again...as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Current model runs are trending weaker and west! We will be lucky to get a few showers from this, if anything at all, in the Carolinas That is what I thought about Irma when the models shifted to the west towards Birmingham - so at this point just sort of in the watch and wait mode. At least this one doesn't appear to be one that will get strong enough to do the damage (and 4 days without power) that Irma did for a lot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 ^^12z NAM is a good bit southeast and stronger at hour 78/84 compared to the 6z NAM (and 6z GFS). This would have better rain results for more of the eastern SE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, NEGa said: That is what I thought about Irma when the models shifted to the west towards Birmingham - so at this point just sort of in the watch and wait mode. At least this one doesn't appear to be one that will get strong enough to do the damage (and 4 days without power) that Irma did for a lot of us Thats the truth. I somehow lucked out with keeping power but irma cost me nearly $2000 in getting trees cut down. I lost two oaks of course but they were apart of a bunch and were stress fractures between the rest so I had to get the rest cut down...and I'm still in the process of cleaning that mess up. We/I do need the rain but id rather we not have to worry about losing power again or more trees coming down. How long did it take for you to get your power back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Another west shift or two , and this will be Texas' problem! At some point , there will be no rain for us, just a frontal passage? Maybe it'll correct east in the next few runs?? GFS 12Z is basically a LA hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 It's definitely stronger on this run, per the GFS. It doesn't look any further west to me though. If anything, it's a little further east after landfall (or maybe just a little slower?). 6Z GFS had Nate at 1005mb (72h), and the 12Z is at 987mb (66h) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Don’t sleep on a boom goes the dynamite scenario in the GoM. That basin never fails to surprise and has produced some monsters quickly in the past. I don’t buy anything yet. This year has been humbling a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Agree LWx. I'm not God but models having a hard time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Don’t sleep on a boom goes the dynamite scenario in the GoM. That basin never fails to surprise and has produced some monsters quickly in the past. I don’t buy anything yet. This year has been humbling a few times. Too much land interaction, IMO , I know when it clears the tip of Yucatan, it's got some open water , but think this will be a weak Cat 1, 80mph type stuff, but we will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Euro hits LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 12 hours ago, downeastnc said: Euro caved to the GFS, came west into LA as well, all the major models hit LA now.....Euro also much weaker with the system as well...all the major models have a TS at landfall....honestly that's good for me IMBY I don't want any rain, keep it all out west of I-95 and I am a happy camper. We need some rain in my neck of the woods. It's been almost 3 weeks since our last decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, yotaman said: We need some rain in my neck of the woods. It's been almost 3 weeks since our last decent rain. I havnt had one drop of rain since Irma! Hope this brings a ton of rain to everyone that needs it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I havnt had one drop of rain since Irma! Hope this brings a ton of rain to everyone that needs it! Thanks!!! Anyone who has passed Jordan Lake knows how low our reservoir is. We need anything tropical we can get, otherwise its just dry frontal passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 5 hours ago, packbacker said: UK has been the most consistent model, has what looks to be high end TS or low Cat 1. Nice QPF min over ColdRain and myself...seems right. Mack get's good rains again...as usual. The weather's just getting warmed up for winter, Pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: The weather's just getting warmed up for winter, Pack. Yep, Lowes has about 25 pallets of pre-emergent, right beside the Halloween decorations that have been out since July ! Winter is the new spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2017 Author Share Posted October 5, 2017 Models keep it a very small system, with a east side based wind field, this is typical of fast moving unorganized systems.....Nate goes from 19N to 31N in 48 hrs so its gonna be moving fast roughly 18-20 mph to cover that distance in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Models keep it a very small system, with a east side based wind field, this is typical of fast moving unorganized systems.....Nate goes from 19N to 31N in 48 hrs so its gonna be moving fast roughly 18-20 mph to cover that distance in that time frame. I’ll be very surprised if Nate doesn’t reach cat 2 or higher. Fast moving or not the region is not hostile to tropical development and the GOM is undisturbed bath water right now. Maybe I end up being way wrong but history says this will be a good storm with a huge right hook at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Rapid Intensification is an uncertainty as it is a possibility. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052045 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 The center of Nate is now over eastern Honduras, and the cloud pattern has lost some organization since the last advisory due to passage over land. In addition, recent ASCAT overpasses suggest that there are no tropical-storm-force winds outside of the coastal waters of Nicaragua and Honduras. However, surface observations indicate that the central pressure remains near 1000 mb, and based on this the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Nate as it emerges from the northern coast of Honduras around 0300 UTC. Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that Nate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model. The large-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should diminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable environment for strengthening. One change in the models from the previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast shows little change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction, then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken as it traverses the eastern United States. It should be noted that while the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt. It should also be noted that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being stronger than currently forecast. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/052045.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 James SpannVerified account @spann 20s21 seconds ago 18Z tropical model set for TS Nate… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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