NavarreDon Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Never seen a cane book like this in the gom. The euro does show some slowing a bit near landfall, but will likely be inconsequential. Check this out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 There hasn't been much change overnight.... satellite still looks about the same, recon data about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: There hasn't been much change overnight.... satellite still looks about the same, recon data about the same. Latest eye pass shows another drop to 981, nothing substantial but still a small change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Latest eye pass shows another drop to 981 Dropsonde only 35 minutes ago found 986. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 From recon eye wall has yet to form, so intensification should be kept in check some what, remember Nate is only ~18 hours from landfall. Due to fast forward motions winds will be significantly less on west side of storm. The other side of this is those East of the center even inland for a ways need to be prepared for strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 AMSR2 overpass a few hours ago showed a rather large spiral band/partial eyewall, but so far this seems to be having trouble clearing out and forming a true eye. I would expect only slow strengthening until that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 You have to wonder if the fast motion will make it hard to close the eye wall off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Nate may not look much improved this am but shedding that convective blob to his west was actually quite beneficial to his center of circulation, settings the stage for further deepening, as it will further allow the windfield to delongate and concentrate the best surface pressure falls under the CDO. I think he will now intensify at a faster rate than what we saw over the past 6-10 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Nate may not look much improved this am but shedding that convective blob to his west was actually quite beneficial to his center of circulation, settings the stage for further deepening, as it will further allow the windfield to delongate and concentrate the best surface pressure falls under the CDO. I think he will now intensify at a faster rate than what we saw over the past 6-10 hrs... He's moving too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, qg_omega said: He's moving too fast So how do you mean? This is an issue in terms of time, or intensification in general...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 43 minutes ago, qg_omega said: He's moving too fast What does this mean? I'm no expert but I don't believe forward speed rules out intensification. Now there isnt really time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 NAMs bring the center near New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: What does this mean? I'm no expert but I don't believe forward speed rules out intensification. Now there isnt really time though. Hypothetically I would think forward speed in relation to the efficiency of latent heat fluxes. In my opinion SST's and are critical in determining if forward speed will inhibit/preclude intensification. Opal and Andrew are just two cases that come to mind where high forward speed coincided with intensification. In this context I don't believe 18 kt forward speed will mitigate intensification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Looks pretty impressive at the moment on Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Looks pretty impressive at the moment on Sat... hauling ass, 45 miles or so between the last two center fixes.....will be over the Miss Delta in 7-8 hrs at this rate and into MS in 10-12.... peak surface winds right in NE quad...maybe a gust though Time: 14:11:30Z Coordinates: 26.617N 87.967W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.9 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,018 m (9,902 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 987.0 mb (29.15 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 134° at 70 kts (From the SE at 80.6 mph) Air Temp: 11.8°C (53.2°F) Dew Pt: 10.0°C (50.0°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 kts (84.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 82 kts (94.4 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (0.59 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Am I reading the recon info right? Just flew through center and found pressure around 980mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Latest dropsonde says still 985 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 Nate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this morning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure near 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under the overcast. The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of up to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument between 75-85 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 80 kt. Conditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for the next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear. The new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing Nate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves through the eastern United States. The cyclone is now forecast to become extratropical near the 72 hr point and dissipate completely by 96 h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 NHC now expecting 105 MPH at landfall. Winds up to 90 MPH at 11 AM FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 26.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 NHC also has raised surge estimates a little bit. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Some of the cloud tops are almost off the scale at this time. Def trying to get its act together now. My in laws live in Mobile on the coast. One thing to note with Dauphin Island Alabama is even a 2 foot storm surge can inundate the populated West end of that island. In fact, 24 hours before Katrina even hit, the inundation was already underway. That island is probably the worst location for hurricane storm surge. Starting with Hurricane Danny in the late 90s and through Cindy, Ivan and Katrina, the gulf side lost several hundred feet of beach and the bay side gained several hundred. The last time I was there, houses stood on stilts out in the middle of the GOM with not a bit of land under them. Meanwhile the bay side of the island had piers that stopped 200 or more feet from even the high tide line. Some of this is likely the result of Sand Island just offshore migrating towards and now connecting with the main island. That appears to have dramatically altered the transport of silt and sand out of Mobile Bay so it is a lost cause protecting the West end of that island now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Anyone have any good webcams to watch on beach locations as conditions rapidly deteriorate this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Forward speed of 26 mph -- man that is HAULING for being in the Gulf. Good thing it is moving so fast with how quickly it is strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 ....I'm getting a Charley feeling, wrt playing catch up on intensity....small canes can ramp up fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Anyone have any good webcams to watch on beach locations as conditions rapidly deteriorate this afternoon? http://gulfcoastbeachcams.com/ http://www.beachcamsusa.com/cities/biloxi http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/navarre-beach-pier/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Anyone have any good webcams to watch on beach locations as conditions rapidly deteriorate this afternoon? I am pretty sure Pensacola pier has a live stream and the Dauphin Island sea lab may have another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 COC showing up on LIX and MOB long range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherchaser Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: ....I'm getting a Charley feeling, wrt playing catch up on intensity....small canes can ramp up fast! Yeah. He won't be anywhere near as strong, but right now he's more Charley and less Opal. I wouldn't rule out any "surprises" with Nate even if unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Anyone notice the little low level swirl/remnant low that was to the NW of Nate yesterday. It's on the SW side of the storm on visible satellite. Kinda neat and obviously not playing a factor anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 This one is coming in pretty similar to Katrina, as far as track. Will be interesting to see how the New Orleans levees do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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