Eskimo Joe Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Hurricane watch being issued for Florida / Alabama coast back through New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nate lacks an inner wind core at the present time, with the maximum winds located about 50 n mi from the center. ... Conditions appear favorable for strengthening up to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. It should be noted that the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model continues to indicate an above normal chance of rapid intensification. However, the current structure of the cyclone does not favor rapid development. Essentially confirms what we are seeing on satellite. Nate needs strong convection to consolidate over the center, form a strong band and wrap the vortex. That will give it the structure needed to really tighten up that vortex pressure gradient and intensify. Still plenty of time for it to do so before the Gulf coast, but the initial slow organization in the short term helps those in NE Yucatan / Cancun area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Based on the more northward motion of the center this morning, I have to wonder how this will affect the 12z op and ensembles. I think the consenus will shift east into Mississippi/Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. It also may allow for some more separation from the secondary mid-level vortex in the west-central Gulf. This could aid in stronger modeled intensification downstream in the 12z or perhaps the 00z packages as Nate's overall circulation may not be as restricted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Based on the more northward motion of the center this morning, I have to wonder how this will affect the 12z op and ensembles. I think the consenus will shift east into Mississippi/Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. It also may allow for some more separation from the secondary mid-level vortex in the west-central Gulf. This could aid in stronger modeled intensification downstream in the 12z or perhaps the 00z packages as Nate's overall circulation may not be as restricted. Agreed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 Looks like some flare ups are starting around the COC on the visible, curious to see if this is the start of something or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 GFS has this coming ashore late Sat in SE LA. Looks a bit more organized than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 26 Fatalities in Central America so far. Looking more and more like Nate is going to be retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherchaser Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 This article explains in detail the potential flooding problems New Orleans is facing with Nate. The pump issues are bad enough, but the clogged catch basins are making it worse http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/article_0a9f9024-aa13-11e7-a98d-1fd6d1d4c1ce.html In New Orleans, officials urged residents to assist the city in cleaning out catch basins in their neighborhoods. City crews and contractors on 14 vacuum trucks have cleaned out more than 3,500 catch basins since August, but there are 65,000 in the city. “I’m going to ask everyone who can do it to find one catch basin and clean it,” City Councilman James Gray said, echoing a sentiment offered by other members of the council and administration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Weatherchaser said: This article explains in detail the potential flooding problems New Orleans is facing with Nate. The pump issues are bad enough, but the clogged catch basins are making it worse http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/article_0a9f9024-aa13-11e7-a98d-1fd6d1d4c1ce.html In New Orleans, officials urged residents to assist the city in cleaning out catch basins in their neighborhoods. City crews and contractors on 14 vacuum trucks have cleaned out more than 3,500 catch basins since August, but there are 65,000 in the city. “I’m going to ask everyone who can do it to find one catch basin and clean it,” City Councilman James Gray said, echoing a sentiment offered by other members of the council and administration. Not saying there is no threat, but I would think the rapid movement and relatively compact nature of the system should really limit both the freshwater and surge flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Not saying there is no threat, but I would think the rapid movement and relatively compact nature of the system should really limit both the freshwater and surge flooding concerns.I agree that rain totals won't be as severe. Fortunately Nate is a fast mover. I'm hopeful this will limit total rainfall accumulations to less than 6 inches for areas east of i55 though certainly even that presents problems. The large southerly wind regime over the eastern Gulf that is driving Nate north to landfall will allow for some fetch; therefore, surge will probably be higher than your typical Cat 1-2 hurricane. So that is a bit of a worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Not saying there is no threat, but the rapid movement and relatively compact nature of the system should really limit both the freshwater and surge flooding concerns. I largely agree based on current guidance but this setup is more complex than that. Although I do suspect the models are still playing catch up with Nate's landfall intensity. Aside from that, based on current guidance, the broad circulation of the gyre acts to produce a large fetch of TS force winds on Nate's eastern side, which will certainly increase the coastal flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 That convective activity near/just south of the center has really become more persistent over the past several hours. If this continues like this, we could start to see this evolve as the central core region. Coupled with the slowly increasing convection just to the north.(Finally let me add a picture) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Starting to come along nicely on the north, west and south quads of the center. An intense band is developing around the western semicircle. The mid-level circulation is also improving. When convection wraps to the east side of the center, Nate's core may begin more significant intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Tonight's going to be interesting...Nate bubbling up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said: Not saying there is no threat, but I would think the rapid movement and relatively compact nature of the system should really limit both the freshwater and surge flooding concerns. I gather it also increases the threat of higher top wind speeds a bit since smaller storms tend to ramp up winds more quickly during intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Nate is definitely getting its act together. A portion of the eastern side is still open but closing with time. A CDO is now beginning to develop over 280° of circulation with -80° C tops on those hot towers. Next recon should be taking off in a few hours. FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 A. 06/2330Z,07/0530Z B. AFXXX 0716A NATEC. 06/2045ZD. 20.8N 86.8WE. 06/2300Z TO 07/0530ZF. SFC TO 15,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Guidance in general appears way off. Nate looks significantly healthier than every piece of guidance I've looked at for this hour. The 12z GFS, Euro and Hwrf all bear little resemblance to Nate's satellite presentation... I have to believe the models are struggling with the complexity of this setup blending feedbacks from the convection generated by the gyre, the Mid level low to his northwest and Nate, and being unable to see that the location of best surface pressure falls is collocated with Nate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Guidance in general appears way off. Nate looks significantly healthier than every piece of guidance I've looked at for this hour. The 12z GFS, Euro and Hwrf all bear little resemblance to Nate's satellite presentation... I have to believe the models are struggling with the complexity of this setup blending feedbacks from the convection generated by the gyre, the Mid level low to his northwest and Nate, and being unable to see that the location of best surface pressure falls is collocated with Nate...I agree. The track is not complicated for Nate's surface low, but it doesn't look like the models simulated so much stacking this early in the mid levels for intensification. Of course, we're judging this on satellite appearance. I will feel better having recon investigate just how vertically aligned and organized Nate's core has become. Either way, with so much intense convective cells going up and wrapping near the center, I would be surprised if the vortex hasn't contracted some this afternoon. It still may take a while for the gradient to increase and the winds to intensify near the surface around the core, but this is clearly a much healthy system nearto this position than has been modeled over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Yeah, it's looking better, but it still has work to do. It could use a nice blob of deep convection right over the center, rather than a bubbly band around the edge from the nw to the s side. One thing in its favor... the cirrus outflow from the robust convection to the east of the system, which had been spilling onto Nate and helping to suppress core convection, has abated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 TWC is saying sat. est. are 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Hurricane Warning issued for metro New Orleans BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 85.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convection associated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strong convective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the center suggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and the buoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 50 kt. The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrive near 22Z. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt. Nate remains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so. After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance remains in good agreement with the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement on the speed. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but slightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern Gulf Coast around the 36-h point. It should be noted that the ECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track. Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Interesting and important note at the end of the latest NHC discussion. We would all be quite concerned about this if it was near a large American city. Quote KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or over the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: Interesting and important note at the end of the latest NHC discussion. We would all be quite concerned about this if it was near a large American city. I think any large American city would fare just fine in a minimal hurricane, and they probably will, too...assuming common sense is employed. Faster forward motion should mitigate fresh water flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 And Cancun was chewed on for like 24-hrs by a crawling Cat-4 Wilma without being wiped out. The city is resilient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, Chinook said: Interesting and important note at the end of the latest NHC discussion. We would all be quite concerned about this if it was near a large American city. Yes, and I am still concerned with the possibility of rapid intensification even with the fast forward speed given the bath water over which Nate will be traversing, the low to the west and the high pressure to the east and now NOLA put under hurricane warning. 993 mb now with 60 mph sustained as it approaches the Yucatan....If this does become a hurricane by the 11 p.m. ET advisory tonight and pressures keep falling we may have a more serious situation on our hands than we were initially thinking for the Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoreyandFrosty Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 From NWS out of Atlanta: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 ...TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA... Tropical Storm Nate, currently just east of the Yucatan penninsula of Mexico, is expected to track north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, making landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast Saturday night. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has Nate turning northeast across Alabama, approaching northwest Georgia by Sunday afternoon. Based on this current forecast track, the probability of seeing tropical storm-force wind gusts, greater than 40 MPH, is increasing across portions of central and north Georgia throughout Sunday. Several hours of winds of this magnitude would be capable of bringing down trees and powerlines. In addition to the wind, periods of heavy rain could produce 2 to 6 inches of rainfall which may result in localized flash flooding, especially across urban and poor drainage areas. A few tornadoes are also possible within any of the more organized rain bands that are associated with Nate. As forecast confidence increases overnight tonight into Saturday, Tropical Storm Watches may be issued for portions of central and north Georgia. This is an evolving and challenging forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts and information from the National Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service in Peachtree City. Do you guys really think tropical storm conditions will be spread as far NE as Atlanta? I found this a bit surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Just now, CoreyandFrosty said: From NWS out of Atlanta: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078>082- 089>091-102-103-070600- Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns- Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow- Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb- North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes- Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton- Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton- Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup- Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Harris-Talbot- Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Stewart- Webster- 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 ...TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA... Tropical Storm Nate, currently just east of the Yucatan penninsula of Mexico, is expected to track north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, making landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast Saturday night. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has Nate turning northeast across Alabama, approaching northwest Georgia by Sunday afternoon. Based on this current forecast track, the probability of seeing tropical storm-force wind gusts, greater than 40 MPH, is increasing across portions of central and north Georgia throughout Sunday. Several hours of winds of this magnitude would be capable of bringing down trees and powerlines. In addition to the wind, periods of heavy rain could produce 2 to 6 inches of rainfall which may result in localized flash flooding, especially across urban and poor drainage areas. A few tornadoes are also possible within any of the more organized rain bands that are associated with Nate. As forecast confidence increases overnight tonight into Saturday, Tropical Storm Watches may be issued for portions of central and north Georgia. This is an evolving and challenging forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts and information from the National Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service in Peachtree City. Do you guys really think tropical storm conditions will be spread as far NE as Atlanta? I found this a bit surprising. I think it is possible because the system will be moving so quickly so it shouldn't spin down enough once it starts racing NE. I could see low end tropical storm conditions as far north as Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoreyandFrosty said: From NWS out of Atlanta: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 ...TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA... Tropical Storm Nate, currently just east of the Yucatan penninsula of Mexico, is expected to track north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, making landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast Saturday night. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has Nate turning northeast across Alabama, approaching northwest Georgia by Sunday afternoon. Based on this current forecast track, the probability of seeing tropical storm-force wind gusts, greater than 40 MPH, is increasing across portions of central and north Georgia throughout Sunday. Several hours of winds of this magnitude would be capable of bringing down trees and powerlines. In addition to the wind, periods of heavy rain could produce 2 to 6 inches of rainfall which may result in localized flash flooding, especially across urban and poor drainage areas. A few tornadoes are also possible within any of the more organized rain bands that are associated with Nate. As forecast confidence increases overnight tonight into Saturday, Tropical Storm Watches may be issued for portions of central and north Georgia. This is an evolving and challenging forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts and information from the National Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service in Peachtree City. Do you guys really think tropical storm conditions will be spread as far NE as Atlanta? I found this a bit surprising. No. The wind field on this is too small and there is no strong high to the north this time. The center would need to go almost directly over them. I wouldn't expect much at all other than a bunch of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 Some cool pics from Station 42056 buoy cam. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.