Nate

[yoda]

Adv will begin on TD 16 at 11am per NHC

[Windspeed]

The NHC is forecasting a hurricane in the GOM. Looks like they are leaning towards the ECMWF and an more eastern solution:

 

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

 

Blake does hint at the possibility of a rapidly intensifying cyclone in the coming days if a dominant vortex can establish and take over:

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America.

[hawkeye_wx]

The track difference between the GFS(Louisiana) and Euro(big bend) is mostly about how each handles the current Bahamas energy.  The euro stretches the energy out and ends up taking the most robust part up toward the Carolinas.  The GFS, on the other hand, keeps the energy more focused and tracks it west across the gulf.

[RU848789]

I'm sure this is banter, but I find it odd that the NHC does not mention what this storm's name would be if it became a TS.  At least not anywhere I noticed.  Looking at the list of names, Nate would be next.  I have to say, however, that someone on Wikipedia is really on the ball, as TD16 is already on the active list of storms.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[toxictwister00]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I'm sure this is banter, but I find it odd that the NHC does not mention what this storm's name would be if it became a TS.  At least not anywhere I noticed.  Looking at the list of names, Nate would be next.  I have to say, however, that someone on Wikipedia is really on the ball, as TD16 is already on the active list of storms.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

If you ever need a reference on names in the Atlantic, this site will be useful. All names are listed for this year out to 2022.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

[bobbutts]

NHC/Euro on the eastern edge of the guidance

 

[beanskip]

2 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

NHC/Euro on the eastern edge of the guidance

 

Interesting to see the 12z HWRF does NOT have TD 16/Nate making landfall on the Honduran/Nicaraguan coast (or just grazes it) -- even the Euro, which ends up on the east side of the guidance, made a landfall there. If Nate misses both of its potential Central American landfalls ..... 

[TomAtkins]

34 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The track difference between the GFS(Louisiana) and Euro(big bend) is mostly about how each handles the current Bahamas energy.  The euro stretches the energy out and ends up taking the most robust part up toward the Carolinas.  The GFS, on the other hand, keeps the energy more focused and tracks it west across the gulf.

Yes. The latest GFS had that energy being stronger and going further west, and Nate followed right along. Its been pretty consistent over the past few runs with the idea that the Bahamas energy will more west into the northeastern gulf.

Will be interesting to see if the 12 Z Euro sticks with the idea of sending the energy up the coast, or comes in line with the GFS and moves it into the gulf.

[beanskip]

For comparison, the 6z HWRF had the storm over Nicaragua/Honduras for almost 15 hours. 12z run -- just skirts the coast.

[beanskip]

12z HWRF also just barely clipping the Yucatan -- will emerge into Gulf already a strong Cat 1 to even Cat 2 hurricane. If Nate doesn't interact with Nicaragua/Honduras OR the Yucatan for any significant length of time -- not good.

[Derecho!]

14 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

NHC/Euro on the eastern edge of the guidance

 

One really misleading thing about many spaghetti plots is they often include multiple models based on the GFS.  It's really that the GFS is on the Western edge of the Guidance, not that NHC/Euro are on the Eastern edge. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Satellite presentation continues to slowly improve today, with increased banding showing up.  However, it still lacks a core.  Recon is finding a weak wind field.  A blob of deep convection at the center later today/tonight would certainly help tighten it up and give it a boost.

[Windspeed]

Satellite presentation continues to slowly improve today, with increased banding showing up.  However, it still lacks a core.  Recon is finding a weak wind field.  A blob of deep convection at the center later today/tonight would certainly help tighten it up and give it a boost.

 

Satellite is improving even without heavy convection over the center. But most importantly, recon doesn't appear to be finding elongation with smaller vorticies to the SW and W within the larger surface trough. This suggests that the surface low is still organizing and becoming less broad with time. We'll have to focus on if/when heavy convection can get going with that center as it increases motion to the NNW around the trough. Mid-to-upper flow is still rather weak with negligible shear. Focused convection could establish an inner core rather quickly in this environment.

 

[beanskip]

Euro appears to be (lo-res caveat) well south of prior runs as well as GFS -- unless it turns due north, this would put the center over land in Honduras/Nicaragua for quite some time.

[Seminole]

Euro definitely coming in stronger on this run. Has Nate at 978 in Hr. 96.  

[Seminole]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

965 mb at 108 .

That is borderline CAT 3 

[Neblizzard]

Just now, Seminole said:

That is borderline CAT 3 

Yeh strong cat 2 , low end cat 3 at Tallahassee Monday AM

[NJwx85]

Big rain producer on the Euro. Good timing with the front moving through the Lakes, allowing the moisture to ride Northeastward. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Interestingly, in the near term, the Euro takes the center to the coast, then rides it due north right along the coast until it emerges into the nw Caribbean.

[Windspeed]

Big rain producer on the Euro. Good timing with the front moving through the Lakes, allowing the moisture to ride Northeastward. 

The ECMWF is definitely the deepest/strongest run by a global operational yet. Agree with the potential heavy rain event into from the Piedmont through New England on its interaction with the longwave trough. Fortunately, Nate's surface low wastes no time screaming northeast towards Labrador.

[Windspeed]

Interestingly, in the near term, the Euro takes the center to the coast, then rides it due north right along the coast until it emerges into the nw Caribbean.

I think the Euro is showing motion of would-be Nate's organizing vortex/core in interaction with the larger surface-to-mid level trough positioned over Central America from interior Nicaragua to El Salvador. So current motion is NW near to coastal Nicaragua tonight, a more N-NW or even N motion tomorrow, then a gradual bend in track back to the NW towards Cancun/NE Yucatan on Friday. Nate holds that track until just north of Yucatan before eventually feeling the digging CONUS longwave trough and turning N-NE to NE through landfall.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

NHC track is a climatological anomaly, further west or east more likely (LA-CentralFL). 

[Superstorm93]

18z SHIPS screams RI 

If this can develop a tight core by this evening, we may have an interesting situation on our hands. 

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  52% is   4.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  33% is   4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  20% is   3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  37% is   7.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  63% is  10.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    

[Windspeed]

NHC track is a climatological anomaly, further west or east more likely (LA-CentralFL).

But they don't forecast based on climatology. They forecast based on current synoptic pattern, features and steering flow, and their own modeling consensus.

 

[wxmx]

12z reliable guidance has shifted a bit west. Land interaction with Nic/Hon seems unavoidable and a Yucatan's landfall more likely now before entering the GoM. Interaction with land seems of a rather short duration and over "cyclone friendly" land, so I expect any disruption to be short lived and with little consequence to the structure.

 

In the longer term, it appears the GFS is forecasting a shallower trough that has a hard time coming south, while the Euro is deeper/colder for the central/southern states, which in turn erode the Atlantic ridge to a greater extent than the GFS, making future Nate to turn more to the east in the GoM.

[beanskip]

15 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

NHC track is a climatological anomaly, further west or east more likely (LA-CentralFL). 

May I introduce you to my friend Hermine?

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

here we go again...

hurricane hyper-activity. 

too much of this, and we'll be too drained out to even care about nor'easters . 

[Ginx snewx]

Wonder if Kush thinks the Euro gust potential is still bunk.it has 120+ gusts now in Florida

[Hoosier]

A lot of 12z EPS members landfall west of the op Euro.

[NavarreDon]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

A lot of 12z EPS members landfall west of the op Euro.

Can you provide a general consensus to where the bulk of them show landfall?