Nate

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

nice rainstorm developing

[downeastnc]

38 minutes ago, salbers said:

KMIS 63 kt gust, wind direction from 130 degrees.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at1

Thats 275 ft high on a oil rig....highest I have found close to the ground is 55 knts at the pilothouse station on the Delta and even that was at 100ft....

[the ghost of leroy]

nate will probably be remembered for the tornadoes and tornado footage moreso than the actual storm itself

fatty couplets like this one:

 

 

[the ghost of leroy]

waterspouts that look like plains tornadoes too

 

[the ghost of leroy]

28 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Thats 275 ft high on a oil rig....highest I have found close to the ground is 55 knts at the pilothouse station on the Delta and even that was at 100ft....

it's probably still a minimal H...healthier than it was an hour ago

the partial eyewall thing looks better too

 

 

[MattPetrulli]

11 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

it's probably still a minimal H...healthier than it was an hour ago

the partial eyewall thing looks better too

 

 

Still a few hours room for improvement too. Banding intensity DBZ has also increased.

[the ghost of leroy]

another pass through that band is coming very soon. i wouldnt be surprised to see some unflagged 70kt readings.

[jojo762]

75kt SFMR readings on the latest pass... FL winds of 95kt. 

[hawkeye_wx]

7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

75kt SFMR readings on the latest pass... FL winds of 95kt. 

Nate has done a good job of holding steady following the collapse of the deep convection this afternoon.

[agrayson12]

4 hours ago, winterymix said:

The Gulf coast isn't a choice place to live for those that want to avoid any negative impacts from tropical systems.

True. However not everyone gets to live there they want.. When you have to care for family members that can't be moved. 

[SmokeEater]

Pretty good long lived circulation heading into Shelby County, AL. Spann is live.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[SmokeEater]

And Spann just said thanks for all the hate mail, f bombs, etc, lol.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[winterymix]

22 minutes ago, agrayson12 said:

True. However not everyone gets to live there they want.. When you have to care for family members that can't be moved. 

Good luck to you and your family.

[the ghost of leroy]

latest readings are all contaminated but there is nothing that suggests it is anything but steady state

[winterymix]

scattered reports of 30' waves offshore

[Mailman]

[the ghost of leroy]

looks like we'll have a 75kt landfall

 

000
WTNT41 KNHC 080252
TCDAT1

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

A ragged central dense overcast persists over Nate's center, but
radar trends have shown all of the deep convection migrating to the
north and northeast of the center, likely due to increasing
south-southwesterly shear.  Still, the northern eyewall, which will
be moving onshore the Mississippi coast soon, remains quite
vigorous.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured
a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 89 kt and some SFMR values
around 70 kt.  Although the SFMR could be affected by wave shoaling
in this case, the data as a whole appear to support an initial
intensity of 75 kt.  Nate's central pressure has been rising
slowly, with the latest report from the plane being 984 mb.

Nate has turned northward and slowed down a bit with an initial
motion of 360/17 kt.  On this course, the hurricane is expected to
make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast within the next
hour or two.  After landfall, Nate should turn gradually toward the
northeast and accelerate again during the next day or two while it
moves between a large mid-level high off the southeastern U.S. coast
and a large trough digging into the central U.S.  This steering
pattern will take Nate across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and
central Appalachian Mountains during the next couple of days.  The
new NHC track forecast is unchanged from the previous one.

With landfall imminent, no changes in intensity are expected before
that time.  After landfall, land and increasing shear should
contribute to fast weakening, and Nate is expected to become a
tropical storm in 6-12 hours and then weaken to a tropical
depression by 36 hours.  Nate is likely to become a remnant low by
48 hours, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will be
absorbed by another low or cold front by 72 hours.  That scenario
is now reflected in the NHC forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding
near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm
surge warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River
to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.  Maximum flooding of
7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected along the Mississippi
coast within the next several hours.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore along the coasts of
Mississippi and Alabama, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to the east of
the track of the center.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring
tropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the
southeastern U.S.  Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and
western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 29.9N  89.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 32.1N  88.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0000Z 35.7N  85.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z 39.3N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/0000Z 42.1N  73.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[LVLion77]

I wonder if nate moved too quickly to leave a cool water wake thru the gulf.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MikeB_01]

24 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I wonder if nate moved too quickly to leave a cool water wake thru the gulf.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A station in Pillottown, LA only showing a 0.5°F drop in temp. Only one im able to find data on

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

75kt SFMR readings on the latest pass... FL winds of 95kt. 

Biloxi Keesler AFB has wind gusts of 40 kt. That's not too close to hurricane strength. (Keesler AFB is one of the main areas where they send out the hurricane recon planes.)

[Chinook]

New: Biloxi wind gusts to 59 kts, an actual wind close to hurricane strength, SLP is 987.4 and falling.

[Dunkman]

Is recon trying to set some kind of record for center fixes on one mission? Pretty impressive work although I guess with the track they could have gotten the (Mississippi) landfall intensity sitting on the runway too.

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, Weatherchaser said:

 

 

 

That's going to cost some $$.  Considering that there are (relatively) small sections of MS and AL that actually have coastline on the GOM, that path was definitely a thread-the-needle one in order to hit both states on or near their coasts (after traversing part of LA)... especially due to its small COC.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081152
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...NATE RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 88.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

 

[NavarreDon]

Worst weather in Navarre (just E of Pensacola) was from app. 1:00am-5:00am. Decent band during those hours. Peak winds 42 mph sustained, gusts 58. Rainfall 5" during the band. Scattered power outages (saw transformers blowing). Minimal tree damage and urban flooding.

Made my way out to Navarre beach this am. Surge in the sound is approx. 2+ feet (this area is about as far as you can get from Pensacola pass & East pass Destin). Waves on the Beach are breaking in the 10+ foot range, beach covered with water. over wash in a few select areas on the island. Still raining and windy. Shot some vid & took a few pics that I'll post later.

[hawkeye_wx]

From the reports I'm seeing on my Twitter feed, the Mississippi coast, which experienced the eyewall, didn't even receive wind GUSTS to 75 mph?

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

From the reports I'm seeing on my Twitter feed, the Mississippi coast, which experienced the eyewall, didn't even receive wind GUSTS to 75 mph?

Wasn't a hurricane when it made landfall probably a 60mph TS

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

From the reports I'm seeing on my Twitter feed, the Mississippi coast, which experienced the eyewall, didn't even receive wind GUSTS to 75 mph?

What's the density of the observation network like there?

[Hoosier]

Recon supported this being a hurricane. We'll see when reanalysis is complete.

[bluewave]

Looks like the max surge with Nate was 6.2 feet in Pascagoula, MS.

 

 

 

 

[NavarreDon]

Here is some beach pics from Nate's local impact.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk