vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, OHweather said: If anything I agree that last minute trends are supporting a juicer solution. Given the amount of moisture involved and sharp temp gradients, not too surprising. The involved vort maxes look reasonably robust which doesn't hurt. For Franklin County, I'd probably have a warning. I'm thinking a 4-6" accum for Columbus, right in the middle of the band of heaviest snow. That's marginal on amounts for a warning, but it'll be a somewhat denser snow falling in temps in the mid 20s and hitting quickly during the commute. It'll be high impact. Here are the maps I put on FB a little earlier, still seem reasonable. If that .50" of ZR verifies that would be some major power outages ins southern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, OHweather said: If anything I agree that last minute trends are supporting a juicer solution. Given the amount of moisture involved and sharp temp gradients, not too surprising. The involved vort maxes look reasonably robust which doesn't hurt. For Franklin County, I'd probably have a warning. I'm thinking a 4-6" accum for Columbus, right in the middle of the band of heaviest snow. That's marginal on amounts for a warning, but it'll be a somewhat denser snow falling in temps in the mid 20s and hitting quickly during the commute. It'll be high impact. Here are the maps I put on FB a little earlier, still seem reasonable. I agree. 4-7 seems right. I guess since Columbus is such a major snow town, we don't need no warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: I agree. 4-7 seems right. I guess since Columbus is such a major snow town, we don't need no warnings Especially during morning commute. Gonna be a late night. I love quick hitters just because of the heavy snow so I'll stay up for the start at least. Needless to say it wouldn't bother me if it slowed down and made it to at least 3pm assuming it starts around 4 or 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Those of us just north of the mix line will cash in. Where that exactly sets up will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: If that .50" of ZR verifies that would be some major power outages ins southern OH. The ZR issue is tough. Sometimes areas a little west of the OH River can hold onto temps just below freezing in these setups, some models show that, some rise temps to 33-34. I took the colder idea to an extent, but with heavy precip rates some of that may run off...tho some models like the RGEM have like an inch of QPF as ZR and that won't all run off. If those areas stay cold enough I think a quarter inch of actual accretion will occur in spots tho...half an inch is the absolute top end of actual accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Hmm, is that isentropic lift I smell in southern Indiana/northern KY? Perhaps a chance at thundersnow along the I-71 corridor tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Latest RAP showing a foot close to the Coshocton county line. Tried my best to overlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, dilly84 said: Latest RAP showing a foot close to the Coshocton county line. Tried my best to overlay. So far the stars seem to be aligning just right for out neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: So far the stars seem to be aligning just right for out neck of the woods. I'm in Knox county, used to be in Coshocton.. We'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: I'm in Knox county, used to be in Coshocton.. We'll see.. Oh that's right, you're in Apple Valley now. Still, looks good up that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Not a good look for snow down here in Cincy....Latest HRRR runs pushing north and already getting freezing drizzle at CVG. Could be an icy one in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, wxdudemike said: Not a good look for snow down here in Cincy....Latest HRRR runs pushing north and already getting freezing drizzle at CVG. Could be an icy one in the AM. Even up this way it has been pushing the mix line further north with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Even up this way it has been pushing the mix line further north with each run. It's actually further south still than it was at 12z. Had the zr line right at Coshocton now it's below muskingum. Updating my call because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, dilly84 said: It's actually further south still than it was at 12z. Had the zr line right at Coshocton now it's below muskingum. Updating my call because of it. Just seen that the 04z run is indeed further south from the previous two. Upped the snow totals too. Hope that is a trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: 4z HRRR is the farthest north it has been. 0 line almost to CMH and 540 line almost to Mansfield. Is Tropicaltibits interpreting the model's data incorrectly? Mix line is further south with the 04z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, vespasian70 said: Is Tropicaltibits interpreting the model's data incorrectly? Mix line is further south with the 04z run. I'm seeing the same mix line on WxBell and in GR:Earth, so that appears to be correct. Keep in mind the 540 line is pretty ****ty for rain/snow, though it's certainly possible it briefly sleets farther north than what the model ptype maps show...which could get very close for Columbus and Newark. Based on radar and obs the precip is running closer to the wetter models than the drier models so far. This sort of reminds me of a Deep South winter storm, where you have a disorganized STJ wave with a boatload of moisture and a lot of precip driven by WAA, but a generally unphased and disheveled looking storm...those often end up producing more QPF farther north than modeled ahead of time (and also more sleet/zr), and this one may be doing the same thing. Looking at water vapor the northern stream shortwave over the Plains appears to be digging enough to allow the moisture to get pretty far north ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, OHweather said: I'm seeing the same mix line on WxBell and in GR:Earth, so that appears to be correct. Keep in mind the 540 line is pretty ****ty for rain/snow, though it's certainly possible it briefly sleets farther north than what the model ptype maps show...which could get very close for Columbus and Newark. Based on radar and obs the precip is running closer to the wetter models than the drier models so far. This sort of reminds me of a Deep South winter storm, where you have a disorganized STJ wave with a boatload of moisture and a lot of precip driven by WAA, but a generally unphased and disheveled looking storm...those often end up producing more QPF farther north than modeled ahead of time (and also more sleet/zr), and this one may be doing the same thing. Looking at water vapor the northern stream shortwave over the Plains appears to be digging enough to allow the moisture to get pretty far north ahead of it. Thanks for your thoughts, they are always appreciated! Started snowing decently here. Nowcast time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Not sure why, but the back edge of the precip is moving east much quicker than expected. Maybe the two shortwaves phased even less than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, OHweather said: Not sure why, but the back edge of the precip is moving east much quicker than expected. Maybe the two shortwaves phased even less than expected. Right now sitting at 4". Not as robust as I expected despite never mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Right now sitting at 4". Not as robust as I expected despite never mixing. If you can somehow manage to tack on an inch I'd take it...CMH was at 4" as of last hour. Would be nice to sneak in a few 6-7" reports over east-central OH although I have my doubts. Snowing at easily an inch per hour up here right now though I'm on the very NW edge of this band. Seeing a few storm reports from the various NWS offices of ice around 0.25" and some tree damage to the SE. Looks like everything panned out ok in many areas, but more of a low-end storm than a high-end storm in terms of verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 22 hours ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said: Good luck guys-- looks like an inch and a half of slop in SE Hamilton County....better odds of accumulation in N/NW Cincy. Hoping for a little extra punch of cold air through the column...someone said it on here-- "you have to smell the rain, to get the heavy snow".....not liking the NAM depiction of ice....will see what the 12 z says Glad to see it worked out for CMH-East.... any reports from Coshocton? I can't recall how far Apple Valley (nice golf) but I recall it being 15-20 miles? Anyway-- solid glaze in SE Cincy--- my 15 mile commute to the w/nw saw varied conditions trending more towards sleet...another 6 miles to the north in Butler County-- 3-4" of snow; I have heard Springboro got a solid hit. Angry called the drunkeness of the 18z NAMs ---- though the 3k depicted the ice line well. Oh well...on to 40's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Measured 4.5" IMBY at 630am. Likely picked up another 1" with the bands that just slid up I-71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Haven't measured yet IMBY, but looks like close to 4" here on the SE side of Dayton. What's impressive is it snowed here in the 1:30 to 5:30am time frame and 1.5hrs of that 4 hour window was a sleet & FR beat down! It must have been 2" per hour rates at times to get 4" in 2.5hrs of actual snow fall, we could have hit 6". Oh well the WTOD screwed us in SE edge the I70/75/71 Bermuda Triangle again, warm layer aloft went about 40 miles north of where ILN thought it was going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Must admit, I was up watching the snow rip overnight. I'm 3 miles west of downtown Bellbrook, one of HighTechEE's neighbors. At one point, huge flakes, low visibility, briefly rapid accumulation rates. Thought I saw a coyote scamper across my yard right in the middle of that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Despite the hi-res models saying Newark was in the bullseye - we ended up between 4"-5". Not all that much more than other locations that weren't in the 'sweet spot'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Big bust down here....Ended up almost ALL sleet with a little freezing rain. Thin coating of snow to top off the ice at the very end lol Glad this storm is gone. I heard the sleet, actually heavy, pelting the window last night and thought to myself "What a waste" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Overall I think this went reasonably as expected...two critiques that stand out: 1) The back edge did swing east a bit quicker than expected...so max amounts in SW OH were more like 3-4", 4-5" in central Ohio, and 5-7" in east-central OH as opposed to 4-7" all the way west. That quicker back edge was evident up here as well. I got over 3" in southeastern Cuyahoga County but the western lakeshore only got around an inch. CLE's 0.6" is probably bs as the METAR had an hourly ob reporting an inch of snow in an hour and it snowed for 2 hours or so outside of that and the gauge actually managed to catch 0.09" of liquid. 2) The sleet/freezing rain was half a county to a county farther north than I expected in a lot of areas...the 3km NAM did pretty well on showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5" here. Pretty much as expected and no complaints. One hell of a 5 hour dump...inch an hour. If this thing had been a little slower.... then again it might have allowed more warm air in. I guess it truly was the best case scenario for CMH. No complaints. I guess all eyes for us turn to whatever happens late weekend. Signal actually looks sort of icy but light. @wxdudemike: that sucks. I looked at radar early morning and was surprised how far north the mix/rain had come into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 37 minutes ago, buckeye said: 5" here. Pretty much as expected and no complaints. One hell of a 5 hour dump...inch an hour. If this thing had been a little slower.... then again it might have allowed more warm air in. I guess it truly was the best case scenario for CMH. No complaints. I guess all eyes for us turn to whatever happens late weekend. Signal actually looks sort of icy but light. @wxdudemike: that sucks. I looked at radar early morning and was surprised how far north the mix/rain had come into Ohio. About 5 here too. U stay up for it last night? I would have liked to see how hard it must have been coming down. Too bad this one happened overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Managed 1-2 here. To my east about 20 minutes 3-4 inches. Good thing was all my lots are that way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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