buckeye Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Pretty strong consensus on a 3-5 range. GFS being the least generous. Wouldn't take much for a surprise on the good side with that much moisture in the warm sector just barely south of us. Speed of system being the limiting factor right now. If this thing were a little slower it would be a classic heavy dump for i70 instead of what looks like a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, buckeye said: Pretty strong consensus on a 3-5 range. GFS being the least generous. Wouldn't take much for a surprise on the good side with that much moisture in the warm sector just barely south of us. Speed of system being the limiting factor right now. If this thing were a little slower it would be a classic heavy dump for i70 instead of what looks like a moderate event. This next system seems like there's going to be a very narrow (like a half county wide) dump of significant snow close to the I71 line rather than I70 (at least south of I70 that is), just NW of where ever the sleet/freezing rain line stops creeping north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 ILN calling for 2 to 4" total IMBY, looks like Newark is the predicted winner for 3 to 5" in ILN FA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: ILN calling for 2 to 4" total IMBY, looks like Newark is the predicted winner for 3 to 5" in ILN FA! Hooray! Looks to be a nice moderate event. Wake up Steve! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Good luck guys-- looks like an inch and a half of slop in SE Hamilton County....better odds of accumulation in N/NW Cincy. Hoping for a little extra punch of cold air through the column...someone said it on here-- "you have to smell the rain, to get the heavy snow".....not liking the NAM depiction of ice....will see what the 12 z says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Hooray! Looks to be a nice moderate event. Wake up Steve! LOL Oh i am... just from a distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I like ILN's 2-4" call, but wouldn't be surprised to see Central Ohio overachieve a bit (maybe 4-5") just like the 1/12/18 storm. Banding will set up along/just south of I-71 and wherever that sets up will cash in. Just like with that storm, highest totals will be east central Ohio as the storm heads east. Second storm in a row where it pays off to be along/SE I-71 and not NW (Marysville, [mount] Bellefontaine) unlike our usual storm tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 hours ago, vespasian70 said: Hooray! Looks to be a nice moderate event. Wake up Steve! LOL GFS sure is trying to make it a big nothing last minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 RAP has been bullish over its last couple runs in a narrow stripe from SE IN to Dayton to Columbus to Pitt. The latest run posted below has 5-6" in the mentioned areas with snow still falling in E OH/PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 17z RAP even more bullish. Feels like the Jan 12-13 event when RAP showed potential for a little more snow than expected (at least for my area) and it was right. Was forecasted for a couple inches on that one and ended up with at least 4" maybe a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Here is my call. I'm iffy on the ice as no mets have really mentioned it, but I didn't want to discount the fact that every model is showing significant sleet/freezing rain in the red sector. As for snow went with a blend of the EURO/NAM/CAN. Throwing the GFS out. Just doesn't seem bullish enough with the amount of moisture. Do, however like the track somewhat. At any rate, guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I think this will be a nice thump from central to east-central Ohio...a lot of moisture and a decent LLJ feeding into it. I'm definitely worried about the ****hole between the two areas of snow near Cleveland, but I think the juicier QPF will verify farther south. Definitely agree some spots could see a quarter inch of ice in southern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 There are a few counties in N KY just south of the ILN CWA that have been upgraded to warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 A few counties between Columbus and Zainesville just went under warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Wow 18z NAM really got juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Looks like the NAM is trending colder in the mid levels thus easing up on the Frzng Rain and delivering more snow. At least there is a favorable trend--- the 06z and 12z had much more Frz Rain for SW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Close up of 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 ILN just went warnings south of Dayton to Columbus in the lower criteria counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The counties in the warning area. 1-5 inches with 0.10 to 0.25 ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: lol, what a drunk model. That would not be snow on how much warm air lifts north on it. I bet it couldn't tell the difference between snow and ice again. It shows .25 - 1" of ice across the area as well lol. May be too bullish on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Well, the 18Z RGEM and GFS also followed suit with a jump in snow totals too, though not as insane as the NAM. They definitely appear to be sniffing something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Well, the 18Z RGEM and GFS also followed suit with a jump in snow totals too, though not as insane as the NAM. They definitely appear to be sniffing something out. All while the HRRR and RAP models are less generous and further south with the heaviest snowfall. Game of miles. Nowcast. Time to watch the radar sweeps and see where the heavy banding sets up. I'd gladly take a bump 25 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 57 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: True, but the 18z is also known to be overly moist. This is a very fast moving event. Things won't always go right. The NAM simply can't be snow totals with that warm lift. With that kind of lift, it needs more ice. I mean, it's heavier qpf than other models but it doesn't look bad with regards to ice and snow line. I mean it's showing an inch of ice in spots. Not sure where you're looking? Here is both the ice and snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Close up of 18z NAM. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: The warm layers it is pushing north should have more ice in them. It is to snowy. I doubt it verifies though. I think the high res may lose this one. That ice line looks to be further north than previously forecasted. I don't like that trend because we all know how it ends here in central OH when we battle the "warm tongue of death"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 0z HRRR trying to get NAM like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR trying to get NAM like. Noticed its been creeping up. This is going to be an interesting one if you like quick hitting THUMPS. Probably about 6 hours of heavy snow....in and out. Morning rush is gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, buckeye said: Noticed its been creeping up. This is going to be an interesting one if you like quick hitting THUMPS. Probably about 6 hours of heavy snow....in and out. Morning rush is gonna be fun. Yeah, definitely liking the trend. HRRR hinting at higher amounts is a good sign, although it isn't as robust as the NAM ... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 0z NAM backed off a bit but still juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 If anything I agree that last minute trends are supporting a juicer solution. Given the amount of moisture involved and sharp temp gradients, not too surprising. The involved vort maxes look reasonably robust which doesn't hurt. For Franklin County, I'd probably have a warning. I'm thinking a 4-6" accum for Columbus, right in the middle of the band of heaviest snow. That's marginal on amounts for a warning, but it'll be a somewhat denser snow falling in temps in the mid 20s and hitting quickly during the commute. It'll be high impact. Here are the maps I put on FB a little earlier, still seem reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.