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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve

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On ‎1‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 9:07 AM, vespasian70 said:

If the hike had been this weekend it would've been a perfect 'winter hike'!

Yea, that's our middle name, missed the perfect weekend for the winter hike by 1 week AGAIN THIS YEAR!

Ended up with 2.75"ish today, with compression of Friday's snow there's about 4.5 to 5" on the level IMBY.

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32 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

A snow band set up over central OH for several hours last night so we ended up with 4.5" here in Newark. Not bad at all!

Hopefully Steve will chime in with a Newark total too.

NAM was right.  Looks like that may be the last decent snow of the month.

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Pleasantly surprised on how this over-performed. Picked up ~1.5-2" through 4pm, then what looked like the back edge swung through between 5-6pm and dropped another 1.5". Then that light band of snow kept pushing NE from Kentucky and dropped another .5" through the overnight.

 

Nice weekend/72 hour total of approximately 10" IMBY and most of Central Ohio.

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1 hour ago, osubrett2 said:

Pleasantly surprised on how this over-performed. Picked up ~1.5-2" through 4pm, then what looked like the back edge swung through between 5-6pm and dropped another 1.5". Then that light band of snow kept pushing NE from Kentucky and dropped another .5" through the overnight.

 

Nice weekend/72 hour total of approximately 10" IMBY and most of Central Ohio.

Thought the same thing.   Best 3 days of winter since that steroidal squall and clipper weekend back in 2015 (or 2014) that gave us 10" over the same timeframe on a weekend.   Awesome to have a few days with about 10" on the ground.   

Looks like we go on hiatus until possibly sometime in Feb.  Unless there's a biggie coming back, I'd be perfectly content with coasting into spring.

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36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

How much is on the ground in Columbus? And i don't think this hiatus will coast you into spring buckeye. I was just posting in the long range thread that seems a cold stormy pattern comes into play by mid Feb. 

I would say between 8 and 10, the friday night storm was with horizontal snows so it really was impossible to measure.   Best I could do was the top of my AC condensor which sits in a protected area by my house.

As far as the extended period....definitely looks stormy but also looks like the southeast ridge is going to be on steroids and it'll be cutter city.   I would guess that means better chances for you and especially the snow-starved Chicago area.    

So if I had to guess how things go in general.  We'll see some pretty strong cutters that may eventually come more south and east over time....which of course would set us up for one of our classic extremely late winter events.

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48 minutes ago, Steve said:

Is it me or does it seem like the temperatures are trending down for this weekend supposed to have a high in the low 50s Sunday now it says mid-40s

Seems pretty steady to me. Maybe a slight downward trend.

Models were likely underestimating snow pack since none of global mid-long range models depicted us having a base of 8-10". We'll likely see a rebound later in the week or we'll "overachieve" once the snow starts to melt with clear, sunny skies and warmer temps beginning Friday. We always "overachieve" in cutter patterns, like this weekend.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well it looks like this party died quick!  :rolleyes:

Oh well, here's some cool webcams from Glacier National Park where we vacationed last August.  There's 26 glaciers left and they said they're loosing 2 per year which means they all will be gone by 2030...

We stayed in Whitefish, MT on the west side of GNP, visited most of these locations except the east glacier locations:  https://www.nps.gov/glac/learn/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

so fellow Ohioans,

what thinks everyone about the tues/wed system?    Maybe a 3-6 low warning for the i-70 corridor?    

Everyone has been so quiet about it, but I guess fool me once, right? Euro been pretty consistent on it right? Been showing right around that 4-6 mark for a couple days (I don’t know what it showed on 12z today though).

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18 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Everyone has been so quiet about it, but I guess fool me once, right? Euro been pretty consistent on it right? Been showing right around that 4-6 mark for a couple days (I don’t know what it showed on 12z today though).

12z was a little drier....probably 3-4 for central,  5-6 a bit south of us.   But the euro sucks...it was also too dry for the similar system that hit us 3 weeks ago.

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

12z was a little drier....probably 3-4 for central,  5-6 a bit south of us.   But the euro sucks...it was also too dry for the similar system that hit us 3 weeks ago.

Never thought we’d say those words about “The King” but it has been awful this year!

What’s “Oh Canada” saying lately?

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Probably shouldn't totally discount the system tonight as ILN is saying 1-2 along and north of i70, and some models have been trending south with it. 

But our best chance is the tues night/wed event.  The 00z euro came further north and snowier for us.  The gfs came in drier.  Euro is now the snowiest which is strange and would normally be a good thing...but we know how it's been lately.  6z Nogaps took a big jump nw, (yea I know its a joke model), but I've seen it telegraph future model trends at this range.

Should be interesting to watch this one.  The negatives are it's a fast moving system on a pos tilted trough with not a big area of cold sector precip, (if you buy into the less snowy models).  The positives are the track is good and the moisture coming up is copious.   

I'm least worried about a warm tongue and mixing....biggest concern is either a whiff south or cold sector precip drying up on future runs.   

 

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Probably shouldn't totally discount the system tonight as ILN is saying 1-2 along and north of i70, and some models have been trending south with it. 

But our best chance is the tues night/wed event.  The 00z euro came further north and snowier for us.  The gfs came in drier.  Euro is now the snowiest which is strange and would normally be a good thing...but we know how it's been lately.  6z Nogaps took a big jump nw, (yea I know its a joke model), but I've seen it telegraph future model trends at this range.

Should be interesting to watch this one.  The negatives are it's a fast moving system on a pos tilted trough with not a big area of cold sector precip, (if you buy into the less snowy models).  The positives are the track is good and the moisture coming up is copious.   

I'm least worried about a warm tongue and mixing....biggest concern is either a whiff south or cold sector precip drying up on future runs.   

 

so on average around CMH area....

12z nam is 3-4"

12z gfs is 2"  

canadian is awol

quite unimpressive so far

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