Steve Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Might as well get it started... I've been pretty busy and really don't have any idea about this upcoming winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Like the swallows of Capistrano, Steve returns! That means winter is coming. Ohio has not be treated kindly in the past couple of winters, but I have a feeling that this one's yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Like the swallows of Capistrano, Steve returns! That means winter is coming. Ohio has not be treated kindly in the past couple of winters, but I have a feeling that this one's yours. Unfortunately if it is a weak to mod nina especially closer to mod like this winter looks like it might be, then I think it might not be a good winter for Ohio but more so your area, my area, and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 what about my area, stebo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Stebo said: Unfortunately if it is a weak to mod nina especially closer to mod like this winter looks like it might be, then I think it might not be a good winter for Ohio but more so your area, my area, and Chicago. I found no correlation in Nino/Nina events in my analysis that I posted in Upstate for Buffalo Snowfall aside from strong Ninas/Ninos=Below average snowfall. Weak/Mod Ninos/Ninas average out about the same with a slight lead towards weak Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I found no correlation in Nino/Nina events in my analysis that I posted in Upstate for Buffalo Snowfall aside from strong Ninas/Ninos=Below average snowfall. Weak/Mod Ninos/Ninas average out about the same with a slight lead towards weak Ninos. Would make sense with lake effect dictating your snowfall so much, only thing that would hurt you would be a warm winter or consistent bad wind direction, which both strong Nina/Ninos would have for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Would make sense with lake effect dictating your snowfall so much, only thing that would hurt you would be a warm winter or consistent bad wind direction, which both strong Nina/Ninos would have for your area. Yeah true, about half of our snowfall is from Lake Effect. I figured there would have been at least some coorelation though as usually ninos/ninas dictate warmer/colder than normal weather, but that was not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 7 hours ago, Stebo said: Unfortunately if it is a weak to mod nina especially closer to mod like this winter looks like it might be, then I think it might not be a good winter for Ohio but more so your area, my area, and Chicago. There have definitely been some weak to moderate La Ninas that have worked out for Ohio. For the southeast half to 2/3 of the state though the SE ridge can keep things more warm/rainy as opposed to snowy, but if there's a -NAO or if the cold dumps in a little farther east (over the Midwest/Great Lakes as opposed to the northern Rockies/Plains) Ohio can do well. I'm personally rather on the fence. The La Nina looks to be "east-based" (despite the surface temps cooling a bit near the Dateline and warming a bit in the eastern ENSO region over the last couple of weeks, the sub-surface cold pool is centered pretty far east) which can bode well for the SE ridge not being too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 1 minute ago, OHweather said: There have definitely been some weak to moderate La Ninas that have worked out for Ohio. For the southeast half to 2/3 of the state though the SE ridge can keep things more warm/rainy as opposed to snowy, but if there's a -NAO or if the cold dumps in a little farther east (over the Midwest/Great Lakes as opposed to the northern Rockies/Plains) Ohio can do well. I'm personally rather on the fence. The La Nina looks to be "east-based" (despite the surface temps cooling a bit near the Dateline and warming a bit in the eastern ENSO region over the last couple of weeks, the sub-surface cold pool is centered pretty far east) which can bode well for the SE ridge not being too strong. Yeah if the -PNA doesn't go nuts or the -NAO can show itself thing could look favorable for Ohio. What is nice is the NW part of the state has a much easier road because many scenarios yield positive outcomes in La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 I can't see how this winter can be worse than last winter for central OH. Never say never though. LOL 2016/2017 was so bad it took quite a toll on the OH crew ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 I always chuckle at Accuweather with their realllllly stick out their neck...ultra detailed......precisely described forecasts for the season. Here's the new one for the coming winter.... Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 On 10/3/2017 at 6:26 PM, vespasian70 said: I can't see how this winter can be worse than last winter for central OH. Never say never though. LOL 2016/2017 was so bad it took quite a toll on the OH crew ... Never say never is right!! I’ve got my fingers crossed for a decent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 18 hours ago, iluvsnow said: I always chuckle at Accuweather with their realllllly stick out their neck...ultra detailed......precisely described forecasts for the season. Here's the new one for the coming winter.... Close Wow, cold up North and Warm/Rainy Down South, and Warm/Dry in the desert, best Winter Forecast available imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 22 hours ago, iluvsnow said: I always chuckle at Accuweather with their realllllly stick out their neck...ultra detailed......precisely described forecasts for the season. Here's the new one for the coming winter.... Close Another way to look at it is that's as accurate as they can toss darts from this range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Bring on an Alberta Clipper winter! Those have been lacking the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 11 hours ago, blackrock said: Bring on an Alberta Clipper winter! Those have been lacking the past couple of years. Pass. Best winters feature a combination of storm types. Even though your location almost guarantee a good result from clippers, for most of us it's a roll of the dice. I'm still waiting to see a winter that features recurring CO lows, Panhandle hooks, and GOMEX lows. I'm not even sure that's possible tbh, but a few seasons have tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 9 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Pass. Best winters feature a combination of storm types. Even though your location almost guarantee a good result from clippers, for most of us it's a roll of the dice. I'm still waiting to see a winter that features recurring CO lows, Panhandle hooks, and GOMEX lows. I'm not even sure that's possible tbh, but a few seasons have tried. As much as I would love all those different systems, climatology says that kind of winter is pretty rare in Michigan. Though Alberta clippers usually don't become bombed out systems, they provide much of the average snowfall for the Great Lakes states. It is true...my area is often rocking when we get the clipper train going, with many SW flow enhanced events off of Lake Michigan. Plus, Alberta Clippers tend to come along with blasts of cold air as a trough digs down through the north central plains and northern Great Lakes. Better chances for snowcover to stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Sorry guys! I just realized this is the thread for winter in Ohio and surrounding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Sleet showers fell this afternoon in SW Ohio: http://www.whio.com/news/local/slick-roads-due-early-morning-showers-temperatures-remain-cool/BZBbJjSuXPEEQcpghJCx3L/ with surface temps in the upper 40s the 850s must have been pretty cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 The first snow flakes of the season started here in Bellbrook...just southeast of Dayton just after 7 this morning (Saturday 10/28). Always a joyful thing to see....and before Halloween. Now that has me geeked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 hours ago, iluvsnow said: The first snow flakes of the season started here in Bellbrook...just southeast of Dayton just after 7 this morning (Saturday 10/28). Always a joyful thing to see....and before Halloween. Now that has me geeked! Yes, and so it begins! October snows usually are not a good sign if you like snowy winters... last time this happened it was like late Jan before the next measurable snow here in the Dayton area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Left for work this morning a little after 7am and walked out to snow falling and both front and back windshields with a light coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based Currently this La Nina would be considered more of an east-based La Nina DJF 500mb for East-based years: DJF Temps However, ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. DEC is typically the warmest month in the east-based years. JFM 500mb east-based years JFM Temps Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years: DJF 500mb DJF Temps December being the coldest month for central-based Nina's. One noticeable difference is that east-based La Nina's are more prone to have a -NAO, especially during the JFM period. Central-based Nina's are more prone to having a +NAO. One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid. You can have warmth. Some years were warm like 2005-06. This information is just something to think about. Also worth nothing is that you can have a Nina that's kind of a mix of east-based versus central-based. Here are 2 peer-reviewed studies discussing east-based La Nina's versus central-based La Nina's: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 A brief shot of synoptic snow is looking increasingly likely early Wednesday across Ohio. It's coming in right around sunrise, so if it pans out there could be a swath of light accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Saw the first flakes of the season! Currently 34° and snow! Rain and heavy at times all night transitioned to snow little over an hour ago! Light accumulation on cars and grassy surfaces. Beautiful to watch come down. Had to wake up early so I wouldn’t miss it, but totally worth it! Can’t wait for LES to start kicking in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Hmm, there might be some winter in two weeks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017112812&fh=312&xpos=0&ypos=158 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 46 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: Hmm, there might be some winter in two weeks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017112812&fh=312&xpos=0&ypos=158 Hopefully we can get some moisture in here too and make things white for Christmas for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Few chances for snow in the 10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Looks like some cold air coming in about five days hopefully we get a Clipper or a nice snowstorm to go along with the cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 ILN calling for 1 to 3" this Sat for the DAY area at a 15:1 ratio. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.