NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, lokee said: Hrrr did not have as much sleet on this run. What it did have was pushed down to the SE. Would love to see this thing trend SE some for here, so so borderline right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 18z NAM was a bit farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Someone may get a foot in SWMO on this NAM run. Edit: Dropped a foot about 10 miles from my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 That NAM run was CRAZY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 That's a lot of ice! I'm really hoping the temps come down! 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 18Z HRRR...Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, ouamber said: That's a lot of ice! I'm really hoping the temps come down! If you look at the accumulation by hour a majority of that falls in a 3 hour period between hour 18 to 21 or 21 to 24 (depending on location). No way there’s that much fz rain accretion in 3 hours. Could include sleet I guess. But that seems WAY overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, ouamber said: 18Z HRRR...Wow! That line is crazy how close okc is to having a decent snow to shutting down. The line looks like comes right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, ouamber said: 18Z HRRR...Wow! Lock it in and inject this into my veins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Lock it in and inject this into my veins. No not yet shhhh lol, I wanna see it drop SE more. We are so borderline of something big or nothing at all (will probly be the nothing at all for here haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Alright SGf... you can upgrade at any time now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: No not yet shhhh lol, I wanna see it drop SE more. We are so borderline of something big or nothing at all (will probly be the nothing at all for here haha). I also want more SE so I don't have to commute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I think STL just forced SGFs hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Tulsa went WWA for NWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Tulsa going with an advisory (Not a warning) for those of us that were in a watch. Perfect timing MUWX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Updated graphic at around 2:30 6" in far NE OK by me... so probably WSWarning by SGF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Meh watch changed to a stinky advisory again, jeez when is this place going to catch a stinkin break LOL!!! Oh look a half inch of snow predicted now too(the usual). Next it will be saying 33 and rain, yes these things put me in a crappy mood. I just want to see one good snow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 AFD says SGF is going with Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Meh watch changed to a stinky advisory again, jeez when is this place going to catch a stinkin break LOL!!! Oh look a half inch of snow predicted now too(the usual). Next it will be saying 33 and rain, yes these things put me in a crappy mood. I just want to see one good snow haha Gonna get a decent mixed bag down there. Advisory for 1-3'' snow and up to .2'' ice. Could be worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: AFD says SGF is going with Winter Storm Warning. Quote Biggest change has been a slower erosion of the warm nose which will result in more ice accumulation, especially over portions of south central Missouri. Nice coupled 300 mb jet to enhance lift across the region with strong omega within the dendritic growth zone per BUFKIT sounds, should result in higher snow totals of 4 to 6 inches along and north of interstate 44, with pockets of 6+ inches possible. One concern is the transition zone currently along Interstate 44. Soundings show a nearly isothermal layer near 0 Celsius. Depending on exact warm nose temperatures, could see a zone of decent sleet accumulation that would cut down on snow amounts. After collaboration with neighboring offices, did decide to upgrade Winter Storm Watch to a Warning and added a few counties to the south. Otherwise, remainder of the area will remain under a winter weather advisory. Precipitation will continue into Wednesday evening, before tapering off late Wednesday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: Gonna get a decent mixed bag down there. Advisory for 1-3'' snow and up to .2'' ice. Could be worse. We shall see, could be better also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, JoMo said: Updated graphic at around 2:30 6" in far NE OK by me... so probably WSWarning by SGF. That Tulsa map looks like the GFS depiction. All other models show more further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, MUWX said: Tulsa went WWA for NWA Yup as I suspected probably gonna be 33 and rain again for the Fayetteville area. We will see. Stranger things have happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: That Tulsa map looks like the GFS depiction. All other models show more further south and east. Yep. I don't think I would write this off in NWA yet. Ice/sleet looking most likely, but I think this has surprise potential down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Warning up in SWMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 The 18z GFS didn't back down. A bit worried about that, and a bit worried about the warm nose being warmer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 I also like watching the HRRR every hour and see it produce these little unexpected convective bursts every now and then that don't appear in previous runs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, JoMo said: The 18z GFS didn't back down. A bit worried about that, and a bit worried about the warm nose being warmer than modeled. Yah if the GFS scores here it won't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Unless something changes over the next few hours, I don't see how the GFS can be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 HRRR continues to look solid. And nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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