StormChazer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, ouamber said: Surface temps are going to be close. Tulsa is at it's peak of snow and at 33?? YIKES! We need these temps to come down or it's going to limit totals A LOT! 12Z HRRR The rate it will be coming down, even if we lose an inch to melting, it's going to pile up quick and then it'll drop down to where it doesn't melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I figured Tulsa would have pulled the trigger already on the winter storm warning. But maybe they're waiting until lunchtime. Probably waiting until the 12z Euro runs. They’ll issue WSW, Advisories, and maybe Ice Storm Warning by this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Hrrr is two degrees warmer than Tulsa is at this time and it is right on with Okc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Waiting on 12z Euro. So close on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Here is the 12Z and 15Z HRRR at 3:00 AM Wed morning. You can see the newer run is cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Speak of the devil. Winter Storm Warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Speak of the devil. Winter Storm Warning. Quote * WHAT...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will likely spread into northeast Oklahoma late tonight into Wednesday morning. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with locally 8 inches possible through Wednesday evening with the highest amounts currently forecast along the Interstate 44 corridor. Precipitation may begin as a period of sleet before a changeover to all snow Wednesday morning. Ice accumulation around a tenth or two of an inch possible across portions of northeast Oklahoma with a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Is the Winter storm watch for NWA new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Is the Winter storm watch for NWA new? Yes. Just issued it at 11:04. .WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Periods of sleet and freezing rain will be possible by Wednesday morning, with a changeover to all snow by late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. * WHEN...From late tonight through Wednesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially where the heaviest freezing rain, sleet and snow develop. The hazardous conditions could impact both the morning and evening commute. Road conditions will deteriorate considerably through the day Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Extension of the winter storm/ice storm warning will be considered with the afternoon update. <--- Important info from Tulsa AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Jomo, why is the pattern not supporting a cold outcome? What is the main problem? Just saw this. Lack of a -AO (high latitude blocking) and a non-persistent negative EPO means the Pacific air masses have ruled . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Euro coming in slightly SE of 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Through 18z tomorrow, the 12z Euro is a tick farther SE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Hmmmm winter storm watch issued for here now too, so lets see if this goes from a watch to an advisory. I am still worried about the temps, though It is colder than progged today I think? Getting confusing now with so many changes regarding this storm. Sitting at 40 here but its slowly been falling!! I feel this has the potential to pile more sleet and zr than anything else. So those of you who are in a warning, how long has it been since you have seen one lol? I know some of us have not seen a WSW for a very very long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Euro with a nice hit. I think SGF will got WSW later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Am I reading it wrong or is there substantial disagreement between the NAM and GFS for Southern MO on this one? It looks like the NAM is a lot more bullish on this bring an Icing event for SGF and points South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: So those of you who are in a warning, how long has it been since you have seen one lol? I know some of us have not seen a WSW for a very very long time now. I moved to Tulsa back in 2016, since living here, we've never been under a WSW let alone gotten more than 2 inches. So, being 18 hours out from this, I feel confident enough to say I'm glad I'm finally going to see over 3 inches! And living in sw tulsa, more like over 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, JMT417 said: Am I reading it wrong or is there substantial disagreement between the NAM and GFS for Southern MO on this one? It looks like the NAM is a lot more bullish on this bring an Icing event for SGF and points South GFS is very warm. Seems like most are discounting it at this point. NAM is heavy ice, Euro/Canadian are much snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, MUWX said: GFS is very warm. Seems like most are discounting it at this point. NAM is heavy ice, Euro/Canadian are much snowier. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Chiefs win the Super Bowl, and a snow storm in the same week. End of the world is near. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Last 3-4 runs of the HRRR are subsequently a bit colder. 18z about to run shortly and it will go out 36 hrs versus the others that only go 18. I like the trends today overall. Some of us need to thread the needle (ala Patrick Mahomes) but I think we’ll all take our chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Last 3-4 runs of the HRRR are subsequently a bit colder. 18z about to run shortly and it will go out 36 hrs versus the others that only go 18. I like the trends today overall. Some of us need to thread the needle (ala Patrick Mahomes) but I think we’ll all take our chances with that. I just hope it's 6" of snow and not .3" of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Any other 12z Euro snow maps beyond hour 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: Any other 12z Euro snow maps beyond hour 18? Pivotalweather has the 10 day Euro now for free. https://www.pivotalweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 18z HRRR is 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z HRRR across much of the area at 06z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, JoMo said: 18z HRRR is 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z HRRR across much of the area at 06z Wed. Its still initializing several degrees too warm. No idea if that changes anything or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, JoMo said: Pivotalweather has the 10 day Euro now for free. https://www.pivotalweather.com Ok cool thxs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, JoMo said: 18z HRRR is 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z HRRR across much of the area at 06z Wed. Also ticked SE by 25-50 miles (compared to the 12z run). Similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Tuttle seems to be buying into a heavy sleet scenario for OKC and possibly Tulsa. Not sure I agree though(as if that matters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Tuttle seems to be buying into a heavy sleet scenario for OKC and possibly Tulsa. Not sure I agree though(as if that matters). Hrrr did not have as much sleet on this run. What it did have was pushed down to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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