JoMo Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yeah, there's even no consistency on the Euro today. Tough to time any systems when they system timing changes from run to run and location changes hundreds of miles every run on every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah, there's even no consistency on the Euro today. Tough to time any systems when they system timing changes from run to run and location changes hundreds of miles every run on every model. Not fun time for meteorologists thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'll have what the NAM 12K is having please..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z NAM saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 28 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 18z NAM saying the same thing. So the NAM and the Canadian seem to think that upper level low is going to kick up some measurable snow. Anyone know what the latest Euro shows? I know the GFS is saying it's a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GFS did increase snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Tulsa AFD not biting on the 18z NAM. Would love for them to be wrong. A brief window of wintry precip remains likely late Friday night through early Saturday along the western periphery of the precip shield. Sfc temps will not be overly cold behind this initial frontal passage and precip intensity will be diminishing with time. Also precip type will likely be highly variable with the expectation that sleet or light snow will dominate the longest. Both icing and sleet / snow accumulations are forecast to remain light and any impacts likely confined to elevated road surfaces. The 18z NAM may receive some attention for those hoping for more snow however it remains a large outlier and related SREF trends are not optimistic for such a large forecast adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Tulsa AFD not biting on the 18z NAM. Would love for them to be wrong. A brief window of wintry precip remains likely late Friday night through early Saturday along the western periphery of the precip shield. Sfc temps will not be overly cold behind this initial frontal passage and precip intensity will be diminishing with time. Also precip type will likely be highly variable with the expectation that sleet or light snow will dominate the longest. Both icing and sleet / snow accumulations are forecast to remain light and any impacts likely confined to elevated road surfaces. The 18z NAM may receive some attention for those hoping for more snow however it remains a large outlier and related SREF trends are not optimistic for such a large forecast adjustment. Well the GFS is starting to pick up on something as well. It used to have zero in the way of snowfall, but now we have a small swath of around an inch. Curious to see what the next sets have to say. I don't think they can discount it if they all start converging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 LOL at these nutty models! Heck they barely seem to handle anything until 12 hours before let alone a few days out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Not sure how to link it, but doug goes with 1-3 for southern Missouri and northern Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 00z NAM still doing it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z NAM still doing it's thing. Heh, is that 10" over Joplin lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Heh, is that 10" over Joplin lol? Looks like it. That's with included sleet. I think 6.9" is actually 'snow' here. All dependent on if the upper storm can hold together and not fall apart. Also should note that the amount that will be on the ground will more than likely be much much less due to marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: Looks like it. That's with included sleet. I think 6.9" is actually 'snow' here. All dependent on if the upper storm can hold together and not fall apart. Dang thats alot of snow the NAM is showing down there. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is a tough spot. You don't want to raise it drastically because of the borderline profiles and the sharp cutoff, but at the same time... if this verifies in some way (taking into account ground warmth) then the reputation takes a hit... on Christmas weekend nonetheless. This is not an enviable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That's the thing about these types of situations, they're either a total bust, or someone winds up with waaayy more snow than forecasters called for. I'm not jealous of the meteorologist who makes that call. I'd rather promise little amounts and get more, than call for lots and get little to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, StormChazer said: That's the thing about these types of situations, they're either a total bust, or someone winds up with waaayy more snow than forecasters called for. I'm not jealous of the meteorologist who makes that call. I'd rather promise little amounts and get more, than call for lots and get little to none. Agreed. They have time to massage amounts slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 00z GFS was still kind of 'meh'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It's still slowly moving towards the Canadian and NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: It's still slowly moving towards the Canadian and NAM though. 00z Canadian came in more 'meh' as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Disappointing. Was hoping the NAM might be onto something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 00z Euro was a bit more robust than it's last run. So, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of slushy snow that falls in some areas. You'll just have to be awake late/really early to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks like Tulsa finally bought in. "As main vort max moves into northeast Oklahoma tonight, precipitation is expected to transition to snow by late evening into the overnight hours across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible near the Interstate 44 corridor and in the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas before precip shifts east Saturday morning. Still some significant uncertainty regarding how quickly precipitation transitions to snow tonight and overall amounts. Also, depending on how quickly the heavier precipitation spreads north of the front today, there is some potential for freezing rain or freezing drizzle if temperatures can wet bulb below freezing. A winter weather advisory may be need for portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as precip type/amounts become more certain." Last night they were showing 1/4th an in of snow, now it's 1-2. Confidence in how quickly the transition takes place seems low to me. That could affect amounts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Tulsa NWS with a big bump in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Hmmm to believe the models or not lol, Man this is supposed to happen so so early am by what I read. I guess try to get up really early tomorrow who knows. Temps have been falling slowwwwly all night though. Amazing and like I was saying before these models dont seem to be grasping anything correctly until about 12 hours before something. Good luck to all of us predicted to get something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Tulsa NWS with a big bump in totals. This is their 24 hour snow total, but their 7 day snow total has amounts of about half this. Not sure what the disconnect is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: This is their 24 hour snow total, but their 7 day snow total has amounts of about half this. Not sure what the disconnect is. Can you link me to this? I'm having trouble finding it on their page. I'm interested to see if they are saying 1-2 because they don't want to say double that just yet, or if they don't believe this because it's based off something they don't trust with certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Can you link me to this? I'm having trouble finding it on their page. I'm interested to see if they are saying 1-2 because they don't want to say double that just yet, or if they don't believe this because it's based off something they don't trust with certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, MUWX said: Thank you. These temps seem to be falling a bit faster than I think was predicted. I've heard from co-workers there's already some sleet and freezing drizzle falling in Cushing and starting in Sand Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Down to 39 here now, slowwwwwly falling. Kinda misty outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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