StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 It's so close to Tulsa it HURTS. I'm just praying that when the storm develops that deformation band is just 20 miles closer....I don't need to be dead center with 6+ inches, I just want 3. If I didn't have a 6 month old that hardly sleeps, I'd just get in my car and chase some snow! To think....I could chase tornadoes and then snow just hours apart in the same geographical area! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: It's so close to Tulsa it HURTS. I'm just praying that when the storm develops that deformation band is just 20 miles closer....I don't need to be dead center with 6+ inches, I just want 3. If I didn't have a 6 month old that hardly sleeps, I'd just get in my car and chase some snow! To think....I could chase tornadoes and then snow just hours apart in the same geographical area! Oklahoma is a weather enthusiasts' DREAM for the next 36 hours! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, StormChazer said: It's so close to Tulsa it HURTS. I'm just praying that when the storm develops that deformation band is just 20 miles closer....I don't need to be dead center with 6+ inches, I just want 3. If I didn't have a 6 month old that hardly sleeps, I'd just get in my car and chase some snow! To think....I could chase tornadoes and then snow just hours apart in the same geographical area! Same, except for the baby part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z HRRR 36 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The track of the NAM still looks good (and better than some previous runs) Not as juiced as we’d like to see, but not terrible. I’m ready to get to tomorrow morning so we can start tracking it real time on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 8:39 AM, JoMo said: Well, it might have a point on the less moisture in the 'wrap around' since there looks to be a big squall line scouring out much of the moisture out ahead of the system, and it doesn't have a big negative tilt to it. Predictable that the GFS was overdoing moisture back in the cold since the trough didn't have a big negative tilt to it plus there's an extensive squall line out ahead of the system that's going to rob moisture. Looks like some banding is possible and those areas will probably pick up the most. Otherwise it looks like a general 1-3" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Flood watches and Tornado watches flying here, 63 degrees! Totally insane and unreal for January, never ceases to amaze me!!! Probly at best 1" tomorrow if(and thats a big if) things setup properly. I'd love to see just one storm nail us with 3-5" at this point haha, its been way too stinking long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think here in NWAR we may see at least a couple of hours of fz rain (minimal) and sleet before the transition to snow. This continues to cut down on snow totals. Canadian has Benton County at 30 degrees at hour 24 and down to 26 at hour 30. The precip maps show rain at 24 and mix at 30. Sleet at 26 degrees is certainly possible but hopefully we get a transition to snow. As usual with complex situations like this, someone will over perform whiles others lose out (more sleet). Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Question for those more meteorologically inclined. What is it going to take to eek that deformation band more east? A more negatively tilted trough? more southern storm track? Etc Just trying to figure out what I should be on the lookout for when watching the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 What I'm getting at is, here is the 12Z HRRR run and the latest 16Z both at 4AM tomorrow morning. In the 12Z it appears that it's already beginning to wrap up to pump out the totals in N OK, but in the 16Z it's practically entirely in NW TX. What does this mean, if anything at all? Or am I obsessing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 My very uneducated opinion is that the details of the HRRR aren’t extremely reliable when looking at minute details. As you pointed out, if you look back a few hours the details seem to vary widely at times. I like to see the strong def band back in NW TX on the 16z even though parts ok OK aren’t filled in. I think it’s a better look than the 12z. Again, just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12Z Euro is reflecting the 16Z HRRR right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Last night's run for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Here you go you Tulsa, Ark and Mo. guys. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 LOCK. THIS. IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 lol, sweet Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Also has Tulsa getting .2 inches of freezing rain. If the NWS buys this run, and the HRRR continues to reflect it, I think they'll expand the winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, lokee said: Here you go you Tulsa, Ark and Mo. guys. I'll take that 3.5 in N Benton Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I'll take that 3.5 in N Benton Co. Move it down a bit my way plz lol. Heck move the whole thing down south and east a wee bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I mean, that’s really far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 18z HRRR looks good for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Not me. lol But it shows Okc getting almost 5 hundredths of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think the NAM is following in the Euro and HRRR's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 18Z NAM Deformation zone smack centered over Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Cold front is on the move. Ponca City - 41 degrees 70 miles east in Bartlesville it’s still 61 Wichita is 32. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Some of you Mo. guys are in a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Man dont know about snow tomorrow(theres an advisory up lol) but we have a storm sitting over us right now that is pretty bad!!! The winds are terrible, constant thunder and lightning and torrential rain. Can only imagine how much snow or ice this would be had it been cold enough jeeesh, whole yard is flooded. Just read Tulsas latest update, sounds like the accumulating snow stays in the far nw corner of arkansas tomorrow. Meh shocker, but they dont sound confident and stated it depends on where that deformation snow sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 NWS Tulsa finally issues a Winter Storm Warning after 1700+ days. Glad that drought is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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