StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, lokee said: 12z Canadian Beat me to it! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Canadian lowered amounts and is farther east with the snow in Missouri, but pretty similar to last nights run on the western edge of snow in OK/KS. (with the exception of SW OK) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 John Slater from Kfor in Okc via his FB page. "My confidence is now high on a snow event with the heaviest snow right along the I 44 zone OKC to Tulsa Saturday. While not a blockbuster storm this will be the biggest snow in many years to impact central and northeastern OK. My first guess is about 4 to 6 inches of snow along the I 44 zone. Ground temps are not a factor. It's January and temps will be in the 20s with snow falling. Road will become snow packed and hazardous. There is still wiggle room in the exact track. So yes, the track and where the heaviest snow falls can still change after all this is weather we are trying to forecast. And you can all tell me how bad a forecaster I am if the track changes. That's OK I'll take the heat. But I believe in preparing for worst and hoping for the best." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Is there any point in paying attention to the WRF models under the Mesoscale tab on Tropical Tidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Is there any point in paying attention to the WRF models under the Mesoscale tab on Tropical Tidbits? I never do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro going deeper with the surface low I see.... Everything probably will nudge a bit farther east..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z Euro is looking pretty much like everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Yep. Basically down to trusting the GFS or trusting everything else. I think we all know the answer when those are the two options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 As a Tulsan...I'm very invested in this recent Euro run, as it drops an additional heavy swath of snow over us, separate from the main one to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MUWX said: Yep. Basically down to trusting the GFS or trusting everything else. I think we all know the answer when those are the two options 12z GFS and 12z Euro are quite similar. The Euro snow map posted above didn't capture the MO snow that happens. Up to what, 2-3" in your area on the 12z? Last nights Euro had you at around 1". So there was an eastward shift. The GFS is still a smidge SE of the Euro though with more amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, JoMo said: 12z GFS and 12z Euro are quite similar. The Euro snow map posted above didn't capture the MO snow that happens. Up to what, 2-3" in your area on the 12z? Last nights Euro had you at around 1". So there was an eastward shift. The GFS is still a smidge SE of the Euro though with more amounts. My bad. Didn't realize what was posted wasn't complete. That's not a bad run. 2-3 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 So is this a Winter Weather Advisory criteria or Winter Storm Watch criteria?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, ouamber said: So is this a Winter Weather Advisory criteria or Winter Storm Watch criteria?? That's tough, probably a Winter Weather advisory with a strip of Winter Storm Watch where they expect the heaviest snow band? Although that isn't taking into account any possible ice that may make them issue a WSW for the entire area expecting frozen precip down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, JoMo said: That's tough, probably a Winter Weather advisory with a strip of Winter Storm Watch where they expect the heaviest snow band? Although that isn't taking into account any possible ice that may make them issue a WSW for the entire area expecting frozen precip down there. The NE part of Oklahoma looks to get a pretty good shot at freezing rain before it all changes to snow. Canadian picking up on the system at the end of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Btw, the Euro members supported the OP run highly, if not a little more east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Btw, the Euro members supported the OP run highly, if not a little more east. Can you toss those up if you have time? Be interesting to see. Looks like the 18z NAM has found more precip, although it's back across KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like Wichita going with a Winter Storm Watch for it's SE counties: Quote ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and light ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 or 40 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: Can you toss those up if you have time? Be interesting to see. Looks like the 18z NAM has found more precip, although it's back across KS. Ask and you shall receive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, JoMo said: Looks like Wichita going with a Winter Storm Watch for it's SE counties: Now we wait to see who follows suit. Will Tulsa have the gumption to issue a winter storm watch or leave it all as advisories? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 This isn't all the way out yet, so don't fret MO peeps. But it does pick up on that deformation zone and puts it pretty much over NE OK. I'm more interested in that trend east than anything else. That area used to be 70 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: This isn't all the way out yet, so don't fret MO peeps. But it does pick up on that deformation zone and puts it pretty much over NE OK. I'm more interested in that trend east than anything else. That area used to be 70 miles west. Noticed the east trend as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I should also note that this run of the NAM does NOT include the new upper air data sampled from this morning. So food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The 18z HRRR (long range run) is starting to get into the beginning hours of the event. Cold air is similar to the NAM, which is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: The 18z HRRR (long range run) is starting to get into the beginning hours of the event. Cold air is similar to the NAM, which is interesting. Yeah they both have weaker surface lows than the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 OKC updated their snowfall map, also shows an eastward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Springfield: Quote 3. Winter weather: On the backside of the system as initially shallow cold air moves into southeast KS and western MO Friday night into Saturday, a wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle, then sleet then finally snow is expected. The snow on Saturday will likely be the result the trailing upper low moving through the region with a weak trowal signature. Where this sets up is still in some question. Some ice accumulation will also be possible as the cold air first moves in as the sfc wave passes off to the southeast. Followed fairly close to WPC guidance for snow/ice amounts, maybe a little higher on the snow over the western half of the cwfa. After coordination, will issue a Winter Storm Watch for a snow-ice combo for some of our west-northwest counties for late Friday night and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, JoMo said: 18z GFS: Well, hellooo beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, StormChazer said: Well, hellooo beautiful. Eh, There's some sleet contamination in there in some places though. Really throws things off in some places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: Eh, There's some sleet contamination in there in some places though. Really throws things off in some places. Its still pretty displaced from the WSW. If the GFS verifies, those watches need to be shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now