Doramo Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 It is really nice to see this board come to life with something to actually follow DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Widespread rainfall will begin Thursday and will continue intermittently into Saturday. The heaviest rainfall amounts look to occur on Friday and Friday night. Two to four inches of rain will be possible across the Missouri Ozarks into southeast Kansas with the higher amounts expected over the eastern Ozarks. The heavy rain may lead to some flooding, especially near creeks, streams and low lying areas. Some strong to severe storms will be possible Friday into Friday night as the front moves into the area. Some limited instability will combine with strong shear and a strong cold front to provide the strong to severe storm risk. As the colder air moves in behind the front Friday night, precipitation may change over to some freezing rain over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. The transition to light snow will be possible on Saturday prior to the system exiting. Some accumulating snow will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Doramo said: Nothing is definite as of yet but this is the closest chance of something significant this winter . Just hope it doesn't end with the Peanuts Lucy/ Charley Brown effect . Agree totally. Pretty safe if we were betting on the outcome we all would side with Lucy. It’s so difficult to get everything to line up perfectly. It feels like there’s a giant left turn sign between Fort Smith and Little Rock. A majority of these get sooooo close and turn NW just a bit too soon. Time will tell if we can finally end the drought or if we’ve all wasted another week of our lives watching for nothing.... I do keep asking myself why I put myself through this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 StormChazer, how did the Euro ENS look? Do they mainly support the OP’s NW shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: StormChazer, how did the Euro ENS look? Do they mainly support the OP’s NW shift? Honestly, the ensembles look to me to be about the same.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 NAM is looking different than past runs so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 BUCKLE UP FOR THIS NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: NAM is looking different than past runs so far. Looking more like the 6z Euro to this point on the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Stark difference. Agreed on the 06Z euro comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Gives Westen, NW , and Northern Oklahoma Klahoma a pretty good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Closes off quickly and then grazes by...I'm glad this run is 72 hours out and not 36... just need it to scoot a little east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Closes off quickly and then grazes by...I'm glad this run is 72 hours out and not 36... just need it to scoot a little east.... That run looks a lot like the majority of storms from the last 5 years, close... but not close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: That run looks a lot like the majority of storms from the last 5 years, close... but not close enough. Probably where things will eventually end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: Probably where things will eventually end up. The only model that doesnt agree with the northern solution is the Euro. Im happy that the euro is on our side, but its very concerning that its the only one. Hoping for some light snow at this point, definitely not convinced we even get that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 GFS to the rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Latest GFS run is very different than the previous ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 18z GFS throwing almost everyone a bone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, lokee said: Latest GFS run is very different than the previous ones. Hammering NW AR @72. I like it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 So drastically different than the 12Z run. So we've got the NAM, which blasts Western and Central OK The Euro which hits central OK And the GFS which hits Eastern OK and NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 NWS Springfield - Obviously they didn’t have the 18z data to consider. The next phase of this system will then begin to impact the area late Friday night and Saturday morning. That main upper level trough will eject right over the Missouri Ozarks with low level cold advection rapidly overspreading the area. It should be noted that models and ensembles are still showing a large range of solutions regarding the track and structure of the upper level wave and system as a whole. Thus, confidence is still rather low regarding potential snow and ice amounts. With this being said, current expectations are for a rather quick changeover from rain to snow from northwest to southeast across much of the region from late Friday night into Saturday morning. We could see a one to three hour window of a wintry mix (including freezing rain). Otherwise, we are mainly expecting snow to be the dominant wintry precipitation type before precipitation tapers off Saturday afternoon or early evening. The greatest potential for 2"+ of snow will generally occur north of the I-44 corridor with the best chances near and north of the Highway 54 corridor. A thin glaze of ice will also be possible generally near and north of the I-44 corridor. We will get a better feel for accumulations starting Thursday as this system will finally come onshore tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Seeing the heavy snow in OK/AR headed North east at hour 72, go poof by hour 78 is very depressing for the SWMO folks. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Take a step back and look at what ur assessing, it's an 18z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: Take a step back and look at what ur assessing, it's an 18z run! Take a further step back and look at what your really assessing, a modeled snow storm in the four states area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Take a step back and look at what ur assessing, it's an 18z run! Doesn't mean it should be thrown out altogether imo. It's old upper air data combined with new surface data. I still think there's a trend to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, MUWX said: Take a further step back and look at what your really assessing, a modeled snow storm in the four states area! Lol I hear ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 TSA "The wintry precipitation will develop after midnight Friday through Saturday morning. The global models have been consistently showing the deeper cold air will plunge south across central/western Oklahoma before arriving into our area. This will favor a freezing rain/sleet set up at least initially, with all rain south of the freezing line overnight Saturday. By Saturday morning, most areas will be cold enough for snow, with some freezing rain possibly lingering for portions of northwest Arkansas. Potential for a heavy snow band exists within the deformation zone which will move across the area on Saturday. The ECM/Canadian have indicated a slower solution, which would allow snow to persist longer across eastern Oklahoma than the NAM/GFS. The heaviest snows will likely be north and west of Tulsa, with several inches of snow possible. Negative EPV values and strong frontogenetical forcing suggest the possibility of banding and heavy snow rates, mainly on Saturday morning. For those who have travel plans this weekend, please check the latest forecasts, as there will be travel impacts for portions of the area." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Meanwhile, 9 days out the GFS keeps hinting at a horrible ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Meanwhile, 9 days out the GFS keeps hinting at a horrible ice storm. Multiple ice storms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I’m going to go ahead and post the 18Z Euro by the 12Z for those interested. It’s the 18Z so don’t get too caught up in the tiny details, still holding onto its thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Take a step back and look at what ur assessing, it's an 18z run! Lol, its bad when us NW Ar. folks are getting loopy over a possible 0.3-2" snow storm lmao. Imagine if a possible 10" + storm were to hit this place haha. It would shut everything down for weeks, well maybe not as it would probly be melted off in 4 hours of so in the 60's haha. Sorry Im being sarcastic I know, just realistic anymore. Man Im so glad for my childhood in the 80's of 12" of snow a week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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