StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Honestly, it's not much but I think it's a step in the right direction, if ever so small. Looks a touch more negatively tilted. 18Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 You can also see the difference in the placement as well, the main swath moves west quite considerably because it's wrapping up quicker. Keep that trend up and it won't be that far off the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I'm not saying we take the ICON seriously, but I will note that it has had a trend over the last few runs of going from a GFS solution to a Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I'm not saying we take the ICON seriously, but I will note that it has had a trend over the last few runs of going from a GFS solution to a Euro solution. Looks like the tropical tidbits ICON doesn't show sleet or freezing rain. Everything after hour 93 is frozen in Joplin for example and it has "rain". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Springfield says: Quote The operational ECMWF is the most bullish with closing off the low and wrap-around moderate to heavy snow. This seems a bit extreme given that this upper level energy will be lifting into a confluent flow. The more likely scenario may be a neutral to perhaps slightly negative tilt to the upper level trough tracking over the region during the day on Saturday. This would still result in a changeover to snow, but overall snowfall would be lighter in nature. This scenario matches better with most ensemble output, including GEFS mean plumes. Bottom line, confidence is still low as this system is still well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Gfs takes another step 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, MUWX said: Gfs takes another step Keeps inching its way toward the euro. I really really need curious if the euro holds its ground this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Canadian back tracked somewhat as well from the noon run that sent it up to KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Whoa, Euro is doubling down with a much southern run so far, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Yea..so about that Euro run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Holy cow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro members emphatically support this OP run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 NAM starting to pick up on it now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 GFS continues to cave to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 6 hours ago, StormChazer said: Holy cow! DFW even gets in on the action there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z GFS and the 12z Nam are pretty close in relationship. Although, the GFS gives portions of Northern Oklahoma more snow than the Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 06Z GFS and 12Z GFS looking for the most part the same, with the exception of slightly lighter amounts in Western MO. 12Z NAM vs 06Z has the system wrap up in KS as opposed to OK, backs off of snowfall in OK to around about an inch, and bombs in KS. Overall, GFS holds steady after jumping more towards the Euro overnight(good to see the 12Z run of the GFS do that, as the 06Z and 18Z can be unreliable). Will see what the Euro does, I've got to think it's going to move the goal posts a little bit and go a touch north after shifting so far south(as models tend to do until they hit a nice in-between). All we need really is for the NAM to sync up with the Euro and we can start locking in a solution at this point in time. Also, if you take any stock in the 06Z Euro, it maintains the overnight's thinking of a southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, StormChazer said: 06Z GFS and 12Z GFS looking for the most part the same, with the exception of slightly lighter amounts in Western MO. 12Z NAM vs 06Z has the system wrap up in KS as opposed to OK, backs off of snowfall in OK to around about an inch, and bombs in KS. Overall, GFS holds steady after jumping more towards the Euro overnight(good to see the 12Z run of the GFS do that, as the 06Z and 18Z can be unreliable). Will see what the Euro does, I've got to think it's going to move the goal posts a little bit and go a touch north after shifting so far south(as models tend to do until they hit a nice in-between). All we need really is for the NAM to sync up with the Euro and we can start locking in a solution at this point in time. Also, if you take any stock in the 06Z Euro, it maintains the overnight's thinking of a southern solution. I still think we need to wait at least another 24-36 hours before we start talking about locking a solution in. When will this be fully sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I believe tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: I believe tomorrow morning. Yeah, Thurs morning the system will be over northern Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, JoMo said: Yeah, Thurs morning the system will be over northern Cali. So likely wont see that data in the models until the 0z runs tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, MUWX said: So likely wont see that data in the models until the 0z runs tomorrow night? 12z probably would. 18z would for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 Some nice weather porn for you Arkansas folks in the later stages of the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 NWS in Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Gut feeling this euro is going to go way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 Everything ended up a bit farther NW on the Euro due to the trough orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Nothing is definite as of yet but this is the closest chance of something significant this winter . Just hope it doesn't end with the Peanuts Lucy/ Charley Brown effect . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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