StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I know I know....I'm obsessing over the CANADIAN...but I need something to gush over until the Euro comes out in an hour. Decent Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z Euro was farther east with the heavier snow. Looking interesting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Yeah, the biggest difference I see when looking at the radar sim is the way the shield gets its act together, and trying to determine where exactly that deformation band sets up is tough to do until 1-2 days out. So far, 5 days out, I'm loving what I'm seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Anyone had a chance to look at the Euro ensembles? NWS mentions that the GFS ensembles were unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Disappointing to say the least, but not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: Disappointing to say the least, but not surprising. NW trend should start anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS is way north also. Might see some mix around here, but that is most likely about it. Several days out and plenty of time to change, but with 5 straight years of misses on our side, I don't see any reason to believe this one will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, MUWX said: GFS is way north also. Might see some mix around here, but that is most likely about it. Several days out and plenty of time to change, but with 5 straight years of misses on our side, I don't see any reason to believe this one will be different. I'm with you 100%. We never cash in well on deformation snows here in NWA. It'll be KC or STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 00z GFS still pushing everything up into Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, lokee said: 00z GFS still pushing everything up into Kansas. Pretty similar to the 18z. All north. Has been the trend for the last 5 years. Going with persistence forecasting with this one. Expect the same result, until something proves otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I like this fantasy, a YouTube forecaster , David Schlotthauer 's current take (ps I don't know how to resize this to be smaller ,sorry if it is too big ) projected forecast we may be in for a dilly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Doramo said: I like this fantasy, a YouTube forecaster , David Schlotthauer 's current take (ps I don't know how to resize this to be smaller ,sorry if it is too big ) projected forecast we may be in for a dilly... Meh. He’s running with the euro op, which has very little support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I’m actually quite surprised by the latest Euro. Not only did it not go north to join the GFS, but it back tracked a touch from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Thinking maybe this GFS run is shifting towards the Euro. Edit: Just barely a touch south from the previous run, no real major difference. The GFS doesn't think the deformation band sets up in OK, it's further Northeast in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Thinking maybe this GFS run is shifting towards the Euro. Seems like a stretch. I think the 0z looks better than they 12z does. The 12z gets its act together to far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Thinking maybe this GFS run is shifting towards the Euro. Edit: Just barely a touch south from the previous run, no real major difference. The GFS doesn't think the deformation band sets up in OK, it's further Northeast in MO. Yeah, still not closing it off. We probably need a closed off system passing to our south to sling moisture/cold back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Thinking maybe this GFS run is shifting towards the Euro. Edit: Just barely a touch south from the previous run, no real major difference. The GFS doesn't think the deformation band sets up in OK, it's further Northeast in MO. I think we all agree that leaning towards the Euro is always the best bet this far out. This time the Euro happens to be in our favor. Let’s hope the 12z Euro stays the course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 TSA's thought's on it via 3:00AM discussion this morning. "Now for the icing on the cake. Colder temperatures will filter into the region Friday night into Saturday behind the advancing front. Meanwhile, looking aloft, the aforementioned shortwave trough and embedded PV max are expected to track northeast right across the region on Saturday. The ECMWF has been very consistent in developing a wrap-around SW to NE oriented band of precipitation along the mid level deformation zone north of the PV max across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Cooling thermal profiles suggest a transition to a wintry mix across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before changing over to all snow by midday. Again, the ECMWF has a few tenths of an inch of qpf along the wrap-around band where the thermal profiles favor wintry precip. The GFS shows a similar idea but has the band farther north across eastern KS into MO. We are still several days away from the event and the exact details will likely change, but the possibility of impactful wintry weather Friday night into Saturday is gradually increasing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I think we all agree that leaning towards the Euro is always the best bet this far out. This time the Euro happens to be in our favor. Let’s hope the 12z Euro stays the course. I had all but talked myself down before the midnight run last night, accepting that I'd likely see the Euro change it's mind, and not to get all sad. But it stayed the course, now we wait and see if the noon run keeps the dream alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Now that's a sharp front. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Im still not sold on the euro because of the ensembles. The 0z ensembles were somewhat more encouraging than the 12z, so hopefully this afternoons is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z pushed back to the West and North into NW Oklahoma and Kansas compared to the 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yeah, the Canadian closes off really early though. It's a bias that it closes everything off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Man, this forecast is teetering on the edge. System needs to close off/neg tilt. But if it does it too soon, then you get the 12z Canadian depiction which takes the frozen precip west and north. If it is too progressive and doesn't start until it gets east of us, then you get the 12z GFS depiction. And then there's the 12z Euro which is close... if it's just a bit farther SE, then we'd all be good..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro Ensembles now MUCH more supportive of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 For those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Will believe it when I see it attitude at this point, we all been burnt pretty bad over the years. Bad thing is these balmy ick temps, everything is so darn warm during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 18Z GFS needs to shift 100 miles south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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