NwWhiteOut Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Bleh, seems like we are heading down the wrong path again this winter lol....wash and repeat yet again. I know I know it's early still but these overly warm holiday temps just make me nervous as its the same ole same ole as the last 5 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 13 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Bleh, seems like we are heading down the wrong path again this winter lol....wash and repeat yet again. I know I know it's early still but these overly warm holiday temps just make me nervous as its the same ole same ole as the last 5 years or so. Not trying to derail the thread, but Doug has said multiple times now that he thinks climate change is to blame. In one post he said it’s possible we only get one 6” snow a decade now, due to climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, MUWX said: Not trying to derail the thread, but Doug has said multiple times now that he thinks climate change is to blame. In one post he said it’s possible we only get one 6” snow a decade now, due to climate change. I totally buy into this, been thinking this way for awhile now. This is not just bad luck, there are other much bigger factors in play here. The change is becoming very obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I don’t think I really buy into that theory. Also let me start by saying this is motivated ZERO by politics. If you look at the numbers, 2005-2010 was the 2nd snowiest stretch for Tulsa since accurate/reliable record keeping in the 1950’s. 2010-2015 was the 6th snowiest on record. And 2000-2005 was the 5th. I’d find it hard to believe we could go from those kinds of record breaking numbers to snow drought in just a matter of a few years if it were climate change related. I know amidst our frustration it’s easy to want to find a reason as to why this all is happening because having a solid reason makes us feel a little better and a little more in control. But the truth of the matter is, we’ve just been REALLY REALLY unlucky, the pattern hasn’t been super favorable and when it has, we’ve just BARELY been on the warm side of things. Most of Missouri the last few seasons has been getting above average snowfall. It’s just luck of the draw sometimes. Well go through more heavy snowfall periods in the future and look back at this stretch as being an anomaly. It’ll get better. It just stinks right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: I don’t think I really buy into that theory. Also let me start by saying this is motivated ZERO by politics. If you look at the numbers, 2005-2010 was the 2nd snowiest stretch for Tulsa since accurate/reliable record keeping in the 1950’s. 2010-2015 was the 6th snowiest on record. And 2000-2005 was the 5th. I’d find it hard to believe we could go from those kinds of record breaking numbers to snow drought in just a matter of a few years if it were climate change related. I know amidst our frustration it’s easy to want to find a reason as to why this all is happening because having a solid reason makes us feel a little better and a little more in control. But the truth of the matter is, we’ve just been REALLY REALLY unlucky, the pattern hasn’t been super favorable and when it has, we’ve just BARELY been on the warm side of things. Most of Missouri the last few seasons has been getting above average snowfall. It’s just luck of the draw sometimes. Well go through more heavy snowfall periods in the future and look back at this stretch as being an anomaly. It’ll get better. It just stinks right now. When you say that we have had favorable storm tracks, but we have been barely too warm, that could be climate change. A degree changes every thing. At some point, this becomes more than a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 hours ago, MUWX said: Not trying to derail the thread, but Doug has said multiple times now that he thinks climate change is to blame. In one post he said it’s possible we only get one 6” snow a decade now, due to climate change. I agree with a blend of what others on here have said as well as your statement there, global warmth and the problem of us not having favorable patterns or overly warm temps. Its just a blend of everything in my opinion. Of course this probably will pass as StormChazer stated and we will just look back on it all. It is frustrating to say the least though, also on a side note our friends in KC said it was 70 degrees there on Christmas day as well!!! I think I was reading that was the warmest xmas on record for kc...unreal and crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 It's more difficult to get snow the farther south you go. More things have to go right in order for that to happen. If the timing is off, then it matters more than if the timing is off in colder locations to the north. Everything has to be more perfect the farther south you go in order for it to snow. Doug's winter forecast has been awful the last few years. The models have been awful as well. There are signs of colder weather ahead as the atmosphere will reshuffle. Will that be good for us? Not sure, yet. EDIT: The GFS is pretty much trash in the long range. The EPS (Euro) is easily outperforming it. With that being said, the EPS shows a -EPO coming up which should dump cold air into the US, the question is if it dumps it into the west coast, or if it dumps it down the Plains. It has a -PNA look long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 49 minutes ago, JoMo said: It's more difficult to get snow the farther south you go. More things have to go right in order for that to happen. If the timing is off, then it matters more than if the timing is off in colder locations to the north. Everything has to be more perfect the farther south you go in order for it to snow. Doug's winter forecast has been awful the last few years. The models have been awful as well. There are signs of colder weather ahead as the atmosphere will reshuffle. Will that be good for us? Not sure, yet. EDIT: The GFS is pretty much trash in the long range. The EPS (Euro) is easily outperforming it. With that being said, the EPS shows a -EPO coming up which should dump cold air into the US, the question is if it dumps it into the west coast, or if it dumps it down the Plains. It has a -PNA look long range. It’s always about timing, but there has to be more to it than the timing is just off. I can buy that for a year or two... but not 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, MUWX said: It’s always about timing, but there has to be more to it than the timing is just off. I can buy that for a year or two... but not 6. Totally agree MU. 5 yrs is a real trend not luck. Things do have to line up well for southern snows, but this is getting to historic levels for no 2+ inch snows, it usually lines up in that time frame at some point, but not now. Historic meaning since NWS records have been kept. Maybe it's happened before, who knows. I never saw this kind of stretch growing up in NE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: I never saw this kind of stretch growing up in NE TX. Dallas is in the midst of its longest snowless streak on record. Previous was 4 years and this winter is looking to extend that to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Dallas is in the midst of its longest snowless streak on record. Previous was 4 years and this winter is looking to extend that to 5 Exactly, thank you for confirming that. Throw timing and luck out the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Kansas City folks felt the same way we did after going a few seasons on a bad streak and last year they had 29.1 in of snow when they only average 18.8., and despite the warm Christmas, are currently above average on snowfall up to now. All I’m saying is it’ll get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 The 00z CMC/Euro had something interesting within 10 days last night. JINXED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 hour ago, JoMo said: The 00z CMC/Euro had something interesting within 10 days last night. JINXED! I saw that! Definitely keeping my eye on it! 06Z picks up on that energy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Who knows how things will pan out but I do know one thing, I love this forum and being a member on it and getting to interact with you all. Heck I feel some of you guys on here who aren't even pro mets do a better job at explaining and forecasting stuff then others do(don't take that the wrong way but its just my opinion). Then there is the problem with social media galore and things being over hyped or what seems like fake wishcasting lol. Don't know but I do appreciate what you guys do on here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 9 hours ago, StormChazer said: I saw that! Definitely keeping my eye on it! 06Z picks up on that energy as well. Told you I jinxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Nothing thru mid-Jan per Gfs. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Getting some very light snow in republic currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 I miss having snowstorms to talk about for days. Even fake ones. If I'm not in here before January 1st, Happy New Year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Jeremy warriner says the system at the end of the week is looking more interesting for some snow, did the euro do something? Haven’t had a look yet, but I know the GFS And the Canadian weren’t anything special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I've kept my mouth shut for a while, but GFS and Euro have both been picking up on something for mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 Confusing forecast coming up with a lot of moving parts. It's gonna rain for sure, but hopefully some of these systems track favorably for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Hmmmm, tricky forecast for next weekend. Closed ULL on the Euro, which historically can drop some really high snowfall rates. GFS partially there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Tulsa is sticking with the Euro right now. By Saturday, the latest ECMWF solution tracks the ejecting upper low across SE OK and NW AR, with a NE to SW oriented wrap-around band of precip along the deformation zone extending from the Ozarks down across eastern OK to the northwest of the surface low track. Thermal profiles will cool enough by this time to favor a transition to snow in this band, so it is not out of the question that some impactful wintry weather could occur over our region by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The GFS is certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Canadian picking up on the deformation band in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 *sweats in Tulsan* Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Latest in Tulsa... Stronger cold advection will occur Friday night into Saturday as the strong shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains. The ECMWF and now the GFS indicate that a wrap-around band of precipitation will set up along a SW to NE deformation zone just to the north of the PV max track across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Quickly cooling thermal profiles would support a transition to sleet and snow by this time. The latest ECMWF shows several tenths of an inch of QPF in the band with thermal profiles cold enough for all snow during the day Saturday across our area, suggesting near warning criteria snow accums are possible. We are still several days out to focus too heavily on the details just yet, but chances are increasing that some impactful wintry weather is possible to start the weekend for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Exciting juicy runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Can I just lock in the Canadian please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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