NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, MUWX said: Canadian goes..... poof.... with the entire system Yep and tulsa updated stuff for here, pretty much non existent now...story of our lives lol. Can we go season number 6 without a decent winter, sure lol. You would think by now we would all be use to this nonsense haha. Got teased in late october by that halloween surprise dusting on the trashcan lid LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z Euro did shift back south a bit. Looks more like a rain/freezing drizzle/flurries situation around my area. EDIT: Long range looks incredibly boring and warm as Pacific air floods the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 10 hours ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro did shift back south a bit. Looks more like a rain/freezing drizzle/flurries situation around my area. EDIT: Long range looks incredibly boring and warm as Pacific air floods the US. Jomo, what is interesting to me is that the ao and nao are turning negative but we will be warm. I know the Pacific is going to be unfavorable. HM said that the reason for the warm pattern advertised is because with the IOD weakening, there will be a lag effect before things get good later. Not sure if he is right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Jomo, what is interesting to me is that the ao and nao are turning negative but we will be warm. I know the Pacific is going to be unfavorable. HM said that the reason for the warm pattern advertised is because with the IOD weakening, there will be a lag effect before things get good later. Not sure if he is right or not. Yeah the Pacific screws things up. It doesn't look like something that's going to stick around all winter though. Edit: I find it funny that all the "experts" are usually wrong. I remember when "experts" were talking about how cold it was going to be the 2nd half of Dec, whoops that didn't happen. I remember when "experts" were talking about the PV breaking down, whoops that didn't happen. It's just the same old thing based on what the models are showing at the time. Nobody really has any idea outside of a week ahead of time, including sophisticated super computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 55 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah the Pacific screws things up. It doesn't look like something that's going to stick around all winter though. Edit: I find it funny that all the "experts" are usually wrong. I remember when "experts" were talking about how cold it was going to be the 2nd half of Dec, whoops that didn't happen. I remember when "experts" were talking about the PV breaking down, whoops that didn't happen. It's just the same old thing based on what the models are showing at the time. Nobody really has any idea outside of a week ahead of time, including sophisticated super computers. Jomo, i don't know what we need to take place for things to look better in the future. Maybe it's not that simple.There are tons of wishcasters out there to get attention, which i guess you have to do if you own a company online for talking about the weather and other things to get clients. I just dont want to be chasing unicorns all winter this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 12z NAM is going to have a farther south look. Strange how different it is from the 00z. EDIT: Looks like the system strengthens and takes on a neutral to almost neg tilt. EDIT2: Hmm ok: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 12z ICON came back south a bit. Winter weather advisories up for KS/MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 And 12z GFS nudged things a bit back south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Interesting trend. Most of us still need the southern trend to continue some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I wouldn't expect much more unfortunately. GEFS has that mid-level trough pretty much locked in at this point, leaving most of northern AR out of the mix but central MO could get some good snow out of this with a nice 850mb frontoband set to sweep through there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 12z Euro with a small bump south as well. Got to get me some mood flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro with a small bump south as well. Got to get me some mood flakes! No kidding, this warm crap weather def. takes away holiday mood for me lol. Oh well what can we do, move north lol...hope your doing well JoMo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: No kidding, this warm crap weather def. takes away holiday mood for me lol. Oh well what can we do, move north lol...hope your doing well JoMo? It's a beautiful day here today. 32 degrees with patchy drizzle. Getting ready for the Army/Navy game. Looks like it's 40 there with drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 43 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro with a small bump south as well. Got to get me some mood flakes! Dynamics are pretty good looking at soundings if you wetbulb you may be able to get a least a couple inches out of it. Stark north-south gradient with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Temps seem to be under performing so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, JoMo said: It's a beautiful day here today. 32 degrees with patchy drizzle. Getting ready for the Army/Navy game. Looks like it's 40 there with drizzle. Darn right at the freezing line there eh, yep about 40 here today. The coldest day I have seen in a while haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 Another small south shift on the 18z NAM. (you all know this is going to fail, right? It is the NAM after all.....) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 the southward trend gives a tiny bit of hope....which is much better than nutten . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 And Springfield tossed me in the WWA an hour ago for an amazing dusting to 1" of snow and ice up to 1 tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, JoMo said: And Springfield tossed me in the WWA an hour ago for an amazing dusting to 1" of snow and ice up to 1 tenth. nice ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 Oh well, at least the Chiefs game will be in the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The Chiefs game should be in a lot of snow. There are heavy snow bands, with one location getting sleet, and, as you can see, 0.5-3.0" of snow measured recently. A couple places with rain and freezing rain just west of Joplin - rain at Pittsburg, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Our friends in KC sent some pics, looks like from early afternoon and appeared to be about 4-6" on the ground there. Im so jelous Im not gonna lie lol. I see tulsa has a mention of freezing drizzle and snow here tomorrow night. Probly wont happen haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Latest Nam run has ice storm in Eastern Oklahoma around 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, lokee said: Latest Nam run has ice storm in Eastern Oklahoma around 6am Not sure I’d call it an ice storm but the nam and the HRRR are fairly aggressive with things tomorrow. Nam much more so than the hrrr but still decent hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The gfs looks good for yall also. Beefed up precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 Wtf is with all the frozen precip suddenly showing up in models?? I stop watching it and wtf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, JoMo said: Wtf is with all the frozen precip suddenly showing up in models?? I stop watching it and wtf That’s what we are all saying right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 It's somewhat of an interesting twist isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Wtf is with all the frozen precip suddenly showing up in models?? I stop watching it and wtf What I was saying earlier, tulsa was talking about frozen stuff possibly. Who the hell knows lol, the non stop changes keep rolling...we have some odd weather out here that never ceases to amaze me. Looks to get very balmy by end week blah, probly have another xmas here at 60 degrees haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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