JoMo Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Joplin/Springfield in the bullseye of "6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Here you are everyone. Euro totals for 12Z run. Not near as heavy(but Euro tends to reduce as events get closer), and a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Sign me up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I'll post all the members with my analysis once they're done resolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 We gotta get something because we're in for a mild and boring stretch after that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Ensembles are pretty snowy. about 20% of them are fairly impressive for the springfield area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 18z GFS with the swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 18z GFS with the swing and a miss. GFS is jumping around a lot it seems. I am going to side with the Euro until I see a reason not to. Partly because it has me getting a snow storm.... party because it has been pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, MUWX said: GFS is jumping around a lot it seems. I am going to side with the Euro until I see a reason not to. Partly because it has me getting a snow storm.... party because it has been pretty consistent. I like that rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 If you're in the camp of "throw out the 06Z and 18Z runs" because they use old upper air data but new surface data, then those two runs provide the more northern solution, whereas the 12Z with the most complete data shows a more southern track. If the 00Z GFS tonight goes south again like the 12Z did, then I'll be inclined to believe the more consistent Euro knows what is going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: If you're in the camp of "throw out the 06Z and 18Z runs" because they use old upper air data but new surface data, then those two runs provide the more northern solution, whereas the 12Z with the most complete data shows a more southern track. If the 00Z GFS tonight goes south again like the 12Z did, then I'll be inclined to believe the more consistent Euro knows what is going on. Some good discussion over in the lake region forum about the differences between the two. They all seem to favor the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 MIke Morgan on KFOR in Okc is going with the Euro. He is saying one to three in the Okc metro area. He also said that he thinks the first one to two inches will melt off due to the warm ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 GFS certainly isn’t backing down. I read that the 18z euro went north. Anyone with access confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I can confirm the 18Z euro went slightly north, but I would take that worth a grain of salt and wait for the 00Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I should specify that the in between runs only go out 90 hours and up to hour 90, the snowfall was actually going more south before the run ends, it’s only with the control run that you can look further that shows the snow, but it’s the control, not the OP. Members do show some runs going more north but virtually the same amount of heavier snows in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Canadian is further north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Yep. About how we all expected it to go. Not writing it off based off one run, but we’re going on 5 years without a notable snow event so we all know how this ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z Euro keeps the snow closer to southwest Missouri, with 7" north of Joplin (3.7" at Joplin) (10:1 snow ratio.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Weather Service Graphic from Noman DEc 12th 4:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 North trend seems pretty evident at this point. I would guess there is going to be a sharp cut off on the south side, so the north trend is concerning. Still plenty of time to watch. I still favor somewhere between I44 and I70 as the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 12z GFS still keeping with the Northward push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I think it's time for me to retreat into my hermit-like state until the next system catches my attention. Then I'll go back to obsessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 Ohhh Canada.. went north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 There is a slim chance of hope with the 12z Euro. It shows most of the activity North but at 6z it has a grouping in North Central Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z GFS has the low traveling right along the Red River Sunday afternoon and early Monday Morning. It has backed way off for the snow for the State of Ks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Darn not sure what is going on with this but tulsa has all kinds of snow and sleet in the forecast for here. Looks like after midnight on saturday all the way into after midnight Monday possibly. Not sure what they are seeing? lol...wishful thinking maybe who knows haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Darn not sure what is going on with this but tulsa has all kinds of snow and sleet in the forecast for here. Looks like after midnight on saturday all the way into after midnight Monday possibly. Not sure what they are seeing? lol...wishful thinking maybe who knows haha Noticed that for springfield as well. We shall see. I still think the models have at least one more adjustment in them once this thing gets sampled. I think that is supposed to happen tomorrow or saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 00z GFS shows everything falling apart Sunday night Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfan Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Anyone else remember December 2018 when TV meteorologist in Oklahoma were predicting snowmageddon based on early model runs before sampling took place? It ended up being a major snow forecast bust. Anyway, this possible event early next week makes my mind go back to that previous time. Now no one has been forecasting any big snow amounts, except maybe Mike in OKC. I so much want a good snow! I have been watching the GFS/EURO daily, and it looks as if my area may end up with a cold rain to start, followed by a wintry mix, and then the dry slot; freezing drizzle. Hope things change between now and the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Canadian goes..... poof.... with the entire system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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