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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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12z Euro is interesting. Maintained some consistency from it's 12z run yesterday through 120 or so. Couple notable differences showing everything shifting back west with a stronger SE ridge, a deeper system in the base of the trough out west the rest of the run though. 

Creates a pretty sharp gradient Christmas morning. Also will be a chance of some frozen precip along/near the front since the entire thing is positive tilted. 

ecmwf_t2m_anom_conus_192.png

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Round and round we go with model roulette.... 00z GFS back with the Christmas cold (and a bit of light snow for some on Christmas Eve)

gfs_T2m_us_31.png

 

I think the change is mainly due to the EPO ridge orientation. In some of the previous runs, it's very strong and closed and angled more to the right. This run it's angled more up and down, not as strong, and not closed, which leads to a different angle with the downstream trough.

gfs_z500a_namer_25.png

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Dewpoint is back into the 30s here for the first time in ages, I think the STJ is going to be more of a factor later in the winter, especially since we're at ~75 days here without precipitation and something, somehow, has to get down here to bring rain or snow given the all-time precip-free streak here is 109 days. It's trying to snow tonight (37F, 30F dew point), but don't think it will.

The SOI has been running very negative for the first time since June 30 - July 3, so would expect some kind of change to the pattern in 2-3 weeks at the latest.

30 Nov 2017    1012.32    1006.05    21.57    10.40    9.20
1 Dec 2017    1012.99    1006.60    13.86    10.80    9.27
2 Dec 2017    1013.34    1007.50    11.00    10.93    9.37
3 Dec 2017    1011.81    1007.60    2.54    10.78    9.25
4 Dec 2017    1011.90    1006.85    6.90    10.44    9.08
5 Dec 2017    1012.14    1005.40    15.67    10.64    9.10
6 Dec 2017    1011.16    1005.40    10.59    10.86    9.21
7 Dec 2017    1011.15    1006.10    6.90    10.98    9.35
8 Dec 2017    1012.17    1006.60    9.60    10.69    9.45
9 Dec 2017    1013.21    1007.35    11.11    10.71    9.44
10 Dec 2017    1012.44    1008.50    1.14    10.63    9.30
11 Dec 2017    1011.42    1009.65    -10.12    10.31    9.11
12 Dec 2017    1010.50    1008.95    -11.26    9.93    8.85
13 Dec 2017    1010.91    1008.20    -5.24    9.53    8.67
14 Dec 2017    1009.89    1007.85    -8.72    8.83    8.54
15 Dec 2017    1008.75    1007.45    -12.56    8.02    8.44
16 Dec 2017    1007.94    1007.90    -19.10    6.86    8.27
17 Dec 2017    1007.96    1008.10    -20.03    5.77    8.07

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19 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Round and round we go with model roulette.... 00z GFS back with the Christmas cold (and a bit of light snow for some on Christmas Eve)

gfs_T2m_us_31.png

 

I think the change is mainly due to the EPO ridge orientation. In some of the previous runs, it's very strong and closed and angled more to the right. This run it's angled more up and down, not as strong, and not closed, which leads to a different angle with the downstream trough.

gfs_z500a_namer_25.png

GFS just doesnt know what it wants.

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

12z Euro looks cold Christmas morning, not as cold as the GFS, but teens and 20's for most. Maybe some mood snow for some folks on Christmas eve.

I am totally down for this! NWS from tulsa here says 20 percent pops of snow on saturday night and sunday now lol. I will be totally happy with just cold ty, would be awesome to see a wee bit of the white stuff on the ground or actually happening xmas eve or xmas day!!!

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Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. 

Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season!

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23 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. 

Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season!

I was wondering when you would resurface, almost texted you telling you to get back on here!

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1 hour ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. 

Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season!

Hey Monett friend welcome back. 

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2 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. 

Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season!

Glad to see you on here again!

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2 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. 

Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season!

Welcome back Wx!!

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2 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. 

Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season!

 

Close to the same here, local mets have 20-30% chances of light snow. Still there is hope I guess.

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Well, Christmas still looks cold on the 00z GFS/Canadian. Canadian would have a better chance of a bit of snow for many leading up to Christmas.

The weird looking GFS snow/ice storm starting the 27th looks weird and probably won't happen. 

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9 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

First of all, we should clarify that my arrival should not be blamed for the snow forecast or lack thereof. B)

Secondly, the bitter cold is gone on the 12z GFS. Think I would rather have the cold scenario. Think it increases our odds longer term of snow. 

Yeah, something definitely changed on the GFS.

Snow before Christmas or bitter cold. Pick one?

I'd go with snow before Christmas. 

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