JoMo Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z Euro is interesting. Maintained some consistency from it's 12z run yesterday through 120 or so. Couple notable differences showing everything shifting back west with a stronger SE ridge, a deeper system in the base of the trough out west the rest of the run though. Creates a pretty sharp gradient Christmas morning. Also will be a chance of some frozen precip along/near the front since the entire thing is positive tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Round and round we go with model roulette.... 00z GFS back with the Christmas cold (and a bit of light snow for some on Christmas Eve) I think the change is mainly due to the EPO ridge orientation. In some of the previous runs, it's very strong and closed and angled more to the right. This run it's angled more up and down, not as strong, and not closed, which leads to a different angle with the downstream trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Dewpoint is back into the 30s here for the first time in ages, I think the STJ is going to be more of a factor later in the winter, especially since we're at ~75 days here without precipitation and something, somehow, has to get down here to bring rain or snow given the all-time precip-free streak here is 109 days. It's trying to snow tonight (37F, 30F dew point), but don't think it will. The SOI has been running very negative for the first time since June 30 - July 3, so would expect some kind of change to the pattern in 2-3 weeks at the latest. 30 Nov 2017 1012.32 1006.05 21.57 10.40 9.20 1 Dec 2017 1012.99 1006.60 13.86 10.80 9.27 2 Dec 2017 1013.34 1007.50 11.00 10.93 9.37 3 Dec 2017 1011.81 1007.60 2.54 10.78 9.25 4 Dec 2017 1011.90 1006.85 6.90 10.44 9.08 5 Dec 2017 1012.14 1005.40 15.67 10.64 9.10 6 Dec 2017 1011.16 1005.40 10.59 10.86 9.21 7 Dec 2017 1011.15 1006.10 6.90 10.98 9.35 8 Dec 2017 1012.17 1006.60 9.60 10.69 9.45 9 Dec 2017 1013.21 1007.35 11.11 10.71 9.44 10 Dec 2017 1012.44 1008.50 1.14 10.63 9.30 11 Dec 2017 1011.42 1009.65 -10.12 10.31 9.11 12 Dec 2017 1010.50 1008.95 -11.26 9.93 8.85 13 Dec 2017 1010.91 1008.20 -5.24 9.53 8.67 14 Dec 2017 1009.89 1007.85 -8.72 8.83 8.54 15 Dec 2017 1008.75 1007.45 -12.56 8.02 8.44 16 Dec 2017 1007.94 1007.90 -19.10 6.86 8.27 17 Dec 2017 1007.96 1008.10 -20.03 5.77 8.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, JoMo said: Round and round we go with model roulette.... 00z GFS back with the Christmas cold (and a bit of light snow for some on Christmas Eve) I think the change is mainly due to the EPO ridge orientation. In some of the previous runs, it's very strong and closed and angled more to the right. This run it's angled more up and down, not as strong, and not closed, which leads to a different angle with the downstream trough. GFS just doesnt know what it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 And nice multi-day winter storm that's more than likely not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, JoMo said: And nice multi-day winter storm that's more than likely not going to happen. HAHAAH yea right thats to good to be ever happen right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Never say never... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Now that's a chilly Christmas morning on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: Now that's a chilly Christmas morning on the 12z GFS. Bitter cold around 0.. now thats a real Christmas morning! Just add a little snow and its prefect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Merry Christmas Eve from our friendly Canadian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, ouamber said: Merry Christmas Eve from our friendly Canadian! ...And Christmas looks really cold so far on the 12z model runs this morning. I do like that part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z Euro looks cold Christmas morning, not as cold as the GFS, but teens and 20's for most. Maybe some mood snow for some folks on Christmas eve. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I'll take mood snow on Christmas Eve!! That's perfect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 hour ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro looks cold Christmas morning, not as cold as the GFS, but teens and 20's for most. Maybe some mood snow for some folks on Christmas eve. I am totally down for this! NWS from tulsa here says 20 percent pops of snow on saturday night and sunday now lol. I will be totally happy with just cold ty, would be awesome to see a wee bit of the white stuff on the ground or actually happening xmas eve or xmas day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said: Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season! I was wondering when you would resurface, almost texted you telling you to get back on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, GSwizzle83 said: Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season! Hey Monett friend welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season! Glad to see you on here again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season! Welcome back Wx!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said: Hi all, wx24/7 here. Been trying for a couple of weeks to log in here with no such luck. So I created a new username. Love how many of the tv mets last week were beside themselves about a Christmas Eve system who are now quickly dismissing it. Still too soon to know just exactly what the system will look like and the track it will take. Solutions have been all over the board. Looks pretty likely that it will be cold though. There is that agreement. Looking forward to tracking again this season! Close to the same here, local mets have 20-30% chances of light snow. Still there is hope I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Loving the name change to GSwizzle! Welcome back. You're either our good luck or kiss of death! We shall see. Either way I'm giving you the credit/blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Well, Christmas still looks cold on the 00z GFS/Canadian. Canadian would have a better chance of a bit of snow for many leading up to Christmas. The weird looking GFS snow/ice storm starting the 27th looks weird and probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 EURO and GFS maintain the chance of some mood snow Christmas Eve. That's nice to see. Will see if that continues as we get closer to the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 This is new on the 12z GFS. The SW system that gets smashed comes out with more of a neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, JoMo said: This is new on the 12z GFS. The SW system that gets smashed comes out with more of a neutral tilt. The 12z Canadian also looks very similar. Very positive trend. Models typically don't handle Arctic air masses all that well either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Yeah, it's a nice little snow from Canada, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Some changes for sure this morning in the GFS and GEM. Wonder what the EURO will do with it all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 First of all, we should clarify that my arrival should not be blamed for the snow forecast or lack thereof. Secondly, the bitter cold is gone on the 12z GFS. Think I would rather have the cold scenario. Think it increases our odds longer term of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I would love for the Canadian to pull this one out for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said: First of all, we should clarify that my arrival should not be blamed for the snow forecast or lack thereof. Secondly, the bitter cold is gone on the 12z GFS. Think I would rather have the cold scenario. Think it increases our odds longer term of snow. Yeah, something definitely changed on the GFS. Snow before Christmas or bitter cold. Pick one? I'd go with snow before Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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