StormChazer Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Because I'm bored and have nothing better to do, I figured I'd over analyze the members, and will do so with each run to see if we can discover an obvious trend. The numbers are for the TULSA Metro, so if you're reading this from central Arkansas, it's not necessarily going to be spot on. Here are my findings... 12/3/19-12Z 0 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 18, 21,23, 24, 27, 29, 30, 31, 36, 37, 39, 41, 44, 46, 47, 48, 49 TOTAL:25 <1- 1, 8, 11, 14, 19, 25, 26, 32, 33, 34, 38, 40, 45, 50 TOTAL:14 1-3 2, 15, 17, 42 TOTAL:4 3+ 5, 16, 20, 22, 28, 35, 43, TOTAL:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 I'll take an order of #21 or #22 please. I did that a year or two ago, looked at the Euro ensemble for trends, and it changes too much from run to run to make a difference. Saw like an 80% chance of snow dwindle to nothing in one run, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Okc TV weather guys already jumping on this. Morgan was teasing people at the 6:30 news and Aaron Tuttle was hitting at the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Weather service mentioned it as well, but basically just said stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Ok, so I've decided to amend my parameters for the time being on my members analysis. This far out, it's silly to make Tulsa my pinpoint and not count a massive dumping of snow 60 miles away, so I'm going with a 100 mile radius of Tulsa, which roughly means the edge of that circumference hits OKC, Wichita, Fort Smith, Fayetteville and Joplin. So I'll be counting anything that falls in that area. Here are my results from the 00Z run last night. 0 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 17, 30, 31,36,38,40,41,47,48, TOTAL:14 <1 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 20, 22, 23, 29,34,35,37,43,45,49,50 TOTAL:16 1-3 16, 21, 24, 25, 32,44, TOTAL:6 3+ 1, 2, 3, 7, 14, 18, 19,26,27,28, 33,39,42,46, TOTAL:14 My next go at the 12Z run in a bit can be directly compared to this as opposed to my last one which only took Tulsa into account. It does seem overall that the Euro backs off an even happening on the 13th and pushes it more to the 16th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Here's the noon update from today, definitely a large drop in significant snow potential. 0 3,4,8,10,13,15,16,18,19,20,21,28,29,34,35,36,37,38,39,41,45,48 TOTAL:22 <1 2,6,14,17,23,24,25,26,30,31,33,43,46,50 TOTAL:14 1-3 1,5,12,22,42,44,47 TOTAL:7 3+ 7,9,11,27,32,40,49 TOTAL:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Oh my, the 06Z GFS decides to make us all happy happy snow deprived people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2019 Author Share Posted December 5, 2019 Ah, yes the 3 day snowstorm. That's what happens if the energy doesn't cutoff over the SW or Mexico. Some ensemble support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2019 Author Share Posted December 5, 2019 Euro seasonal went cold for Jan, hmm. Probably be 80 everyday, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2019 Author Share Posted December 5, 2019 Gonna be a miss this run, no northern stream energy diving in to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 12/5/19-00Z 0 1,4, 5, 6,16,17,20,25,27,29,30,32,36,37,43,45,48,50 TOTAL:18 <1 2,9,10,11,12,14,18,23,24,28,33,38,42,44,46 TOTAL:15 1-3 7,8,13,21,26,31,35,39,41 TOTAL:9 3+ 3,15,19,22,34,40,47,49 TOTAL:8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 It'll probably snow the 16th. That's the day I have important plans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 That's how it tends to go. I gave up on over analyzing the Euro members until something more consistent and promising arises. BUT, I'd say looking over the next 2 weeks it seems like the cold air and moisture are there, all about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 52 minutes ago, StormChazer said: That's how it tends to go. I gave up on over analyzing the Euro members until something more consistent and promising arises. BUT, I'd say looking over the next 2 weeks it seems like the cold air and moisture are there, all about timing. Well, all the models currently have a system around hour 240. What's the 12z Euro have after 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Here is hour 258 QPF on the Euro, so it's showing something in that time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Here is hour 258 QPF on the Euro, so it's showing something in that time frame as well. Looks positive tilted and too far north for most of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 We shall watch this one with great interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2019 Author Share Posted December 7, 2019 Yeah, there's split flow, and models will have trouble resolving it and will probably change a lot. It looks like it will at least be more exciting with colder air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 Some post frontal snow showers in the mountains of Arkansas? Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, JoMo said: If only... I saw that.....I think if something like that verified, I'd forgive the last 6 years of snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 That would be a festivus miracle! The more shocking thing I realized from this is it’s only 384 hrs until Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 The GFS has been running too cold with temps lately. So I wouldn't be shocked to see a northward movement in the snowfall chances with the system around the 15th-17th. CANADA EH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Friendly reminder that it's been 1,740 days since the Tulsa office issued a winter storm warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 29 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Friendly reminder that it's been 1,740 days since the Tulsa office issued a winter storm warning. This is insanity. Before long they're gonna just white out our region like S Florida, as in dont waste ur time tracking it never happens lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 44 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Friendly reminder that it's been 1,740 days since the Tulsa office issued a winter storm warning. This is depressing. It’s also been 771 days since the Razorbacks won an SEC football game. Both of these streaks can end any time now although football will have to wait another 200+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 hours ago, StormChazer said: I saw that.....I think if something like that verified, I'd forgive the last 6 years of snow drought. I for surely could I know that LOL!!! Man what a tease that map is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 57 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: This is insanity. Before long they're gonna just white out our region like S Florida, as in dont waste ur time tracking it never happens lol. This, so so sad and depressing really! And these stupid warm temps(right on track as the last 5 years, shocker..nope) just bum me out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 00Z Euro Control Vs the latest 12Z run Control. Now we see if tonight continues the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Yeah the 12z Euro OP was a little different due to some modeled changes. Mainly a stronger initial system around like the 14th pulling down colder air. The issue is that the flow is just too fast and nothing is amplifying. So instead of getting a low forming, you just get positive trough coming out of the 4 corners region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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