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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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I guess the EPS (Euro) has a lack of blocking, which results in warmer temps. This was last night. FWIW, the Canadian is on the GFS side as well. Plus tropical forcing should be more towards the GFS as well. The Euro or GFS is gonna bust. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, JoMo said:

I guess the EPS (Euro) has a lack of blocking, which results in warmer temps. This was last night. FWIW, the Canadian is on the GFS side as well. Plus tropical forcing should be more towards the GFS as well. The Euro or GFS is gonna bust. 

 

 

12Z Euro has a mid mo snow storm. Not sure if ensembles are out for that yet, but GFS was similar. 

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25 minutes ago, MUWX said:

12Z Euro has a mid mo snow storm. Not sure if ensembles are out for that yet, but GFS was similar. 

Yeah I saw that next weekendish. Just a very marginal setup where a lot of things can and probably will go wrong or trend in the wrong direction. We'll see though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_36.png

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16 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yeah I saw that next weekendish. Just a very marginal setup where a lot of things can and probably will go wrong or trend in the wrong direction. We'll see though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_36.png

Yeah, for sure. Its a long ways off, but I thought it was interesting that all three models were showing something in that general time frame. Something to watch at least. I'll try to look at the ensembles this evening to see if there is actually any support for it. 

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52 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Lol. It's just Nov 18th. I'm more concerned with the long range models showing less of a -EPO and more of a -PNA pattern. 

hahaha oh i know, we are still a month away from really getting into winter. I have been reading a lot about what you are saying, not a great sign. 

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Thanksgiving looks a bit cold and rainy(mix/snow in some places early) 

Looks like we'll have this initial system on Tues.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

 

Then mix/snow to rain on Thanksgiving:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

Followed by rain on Fri:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

 

And maybe some rain/snow showers on Saturday into early Sunday:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

 

Looks active at least......

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I infer from Lezak's public forecast that the dominant pattern is the trough Plains, which gives 3-4 winter storms for KCMO. Secondary pattern is not discussed in the public forecast; however, the LRC usually has one. I don't have access to the subscription, though maybe I should. Anyway I figure the secondary pattern is northwest flow. That's less juicy your way but probably my only hope over in Tenn.

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