Doramo Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Had a mixed event at first yesterday but ended up with some nice flakes with a dusting of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 Better look starting to show up on the GEFS long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 27 minutes ago, JoMo said: Better look starting to show up on the GEFS long range. Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 I guess the EPS (Euro) has a lack of blocking, which results in warmer temps. This was last night. FWIW, the Canadian is on the GFS side as well. Plus tropical forcing should be more towards the GFS as well. The Euro or GFS is gonna bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: I guess the EPS (Euro) has a lack of blocking, which results in warmer temps. This was last night. FWIW, the Canadian is on the GFS side as well. Plus tropical forcing should be more towards the GFS as well. The Euro or GFS is gonna bust. 12Z Euro has a mid mo snow storm. Not sure if ensembles are out for that yet, but GFS was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, MUWX said: 12Z Euro has a mid mo snow storm. Not sure if ensembles are out for that yet, but GFS was similar. Yeah I saw that next weekendish. Just a very marginal setup where a lot of things can and probably will go wrong or trend in the wrong direction. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah I saw that next weekendish. Just a very marginal setup where a lot of things can and probably will go wrong or trend in the wrong direction. We'll see though. Yeah, for sure. Its a long ways off, but I thought it was interesting that all three models were showing something in that general time frame. Something to watch at least. I'll try to look at the ensembles this evening to see if there is actually any support for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 12z GEFS looked great after Day 10 or so. Hopefully the Euro ensemble comes around to the colder look today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 That cold snap and minor snow event has me restless. Where is the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, MUWX said: That cold snap and minor snow event has me restless. Where is the snow? Lol. It's just Nov 18th. I'm more concerned with the long range models showing less of a -EPO and more of a -PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 52 minutes ago, JoMo said: Lol. It's just Nov 18th. I'm more concerned with the long range models showing less of a -EPO and more of a -PNA pattern. hahaha oh i know, we are still a month away from really getting into winter. I have been reading a lot about what you are saying, not a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Models are changing a lot from run to run in the extended, but it does appear that a big system will be possible sometime around Thanksgiving. Severe weather probably out ahead of it and maybe a blizzard behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 A couple nights ago Ron Hearst at KY3 came out with his winter forecast. Really went all out with his forecast, calling for somewhere between 7" to several feet of snow this winter. These winter forecasts are a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Gary Lezak winter forecast is supposed to be out next week. It's been pretty cold Oct-Nov in Missouri/Kansas, which is where is I had the cold centered in winter, I imagine he'll have something similar since he looks at Fall patterns for the LRC. Might not be super wet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 Thanksgiving looks a bit cold and rainy(mix/snow in some places early) Looks like we'll have this initial system on Tues. Then mix/snow to rain on Thanksgiving: Followed by rain on Fri: And maybe some rain/snow showers on Saturday into early Sunday: Looks active at least...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Happy Thanksgiving. Great day for it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Thankful for a lot of things, but 34 and rain is not one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 11 hours ago, JoMo said: Happy Thanksgiving. Great day for it! Happy Thanksgiving man, I enjoyed seeing some colder weather on a holiday for once!! I think I was reading this was the coldest turkey day here in 12 years!! Like 40 today and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I infer from Lezak's public forecast that the dominant pattern is the trough Plains, which gives 3-4 winter storms for KCMO. Secondary pattern is not discussed in the public forecast; however, the LRC usually has one. I don't have access to the subscription, though maybe I should. Anyway I figure the secondary pattern is northwest flow. That's less juicy your way but probably my only hope over in Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I need the models to give me something to drool over(even if it disappears 2 runs later), I need a fix! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 6 hours ago, StormChazer said: I need the models to give me something to drool over(even if it disappears 2 runs later), I need a fix! 18z GFS answered your wish around hour 270. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Lol, yeah I saw that. Gonna probably disappear next run though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Some stuff showed up the 06z run of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 It's long range but we do have some agreement...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 At least there's something to track and cold air back in the forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 47 minutes ago, JoMo said: At least there's something to track and cold air back in the forecast. No kidding, I know it's early but when I see these kind of temps in December I start getting antsy and nervous in all honesty lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Stout -EPO signal showing back up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Latest Euro keeps a winter storm in our area in the 12th-13th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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