StormChazer Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: Any idea why those 2 different map views don’t match? The Kansas view shows a large area of 6+ inches in purple. The MO view has the purple in MO only. Different ratio algorithm than the basic 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Any idea why those 2 different map views don’t match? The Kansas view shows a large area of 6+ inches in purple. The MO view has the purple in MO only. Different Ratio Models, Kansas is Kuhera Temp Profile Ratio. MO is 10/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Temps will probably be a bit colder than the 10:1 standard ratio, especially the farther north you go. It looks interesting for maybe a couple of inches where the snow does fall. Better chances KS/MO of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Springfield bumped amounts up to 3-5" most areas, 1-3" across far S MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 V3 coming in wetter Both it and the GFS have a sharp n/s gradient of snow across Tulsa county. 1-4 and 0-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 So how about that run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, MUWX said: So how about that run.... GFS was jacked up on Mt. Dew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Watch it turn out to be underdone, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa. I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth. “Just a quick note: The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa. I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth. “Just a quick note: The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.” Not saying he's wrong, but seems suspect. Although I can't disagree with continuance forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS and NAM have two VERY different opinions. That being said, the 12Z NAM is coming in a little colder, let's see how this run finishes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah, the NAM is concerning since it has much lower amounts. It's usually pretty juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 TSA's thoughts. They do mention "heavy snow", just need those totals to shift about 40 miles south and I'll be ecstatic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Meteorologist Michael Armstrong out of OKC's thoughts on the upcoming storm. "Many areas have now gone 2 to 3 days below freezing. This will likely have some significant impacts on the upcoming winter storm for this weekend. In other words, greater impacts than earlier winter when warm days led into those." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 MoWeatherGuy, anything happen up there last night? I got up at 6am to use the bathroom and noticed a coating of what looked like snow on the ground!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 I mean... is quite a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 All I'm asking for is 3 inches of snow here in Tulsa. I'll even take 2-2.5. This is the last shot of the winter and even though it will have been another under-performing season, going out on a high note like this would scratch that 4 year itch that has built up. Not to mention whatever falls we get to enjoy all day Sunday, Monday, and some of Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It is not like there is really warm air in the area, it is cold well south at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 50 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: MoWeatherGuy, anything happen up there last night? I got up at 6am to use the bathroom and noticed a coating of what looked like snow on the ground!!!! Nothing at my house, but I did see some light snow on vehicles at work this morning in Springdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Big differences ion model totals and types? I will take what the Gfs is having, fantasy Im sure lol. I will believe it when I see it but plzzzzz just give us all some snow!!! I would be extremely happy with 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: Nothing at my house, but I did see some light snow on vehicles at work this morning in Springdale. Crazy, yea man the ground was completely covered here. Of course its all melted now, the case this winter more snow from surprise no mention events lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: Crazy, yea man the ground was completely covered here. Of course its all melted now, the case this winter more snow from surprise no mention events lol Sad but true bro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12Z Euro bringing those higher totals a touch more south. I can get behind that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Too early to temp watch? SGF had a forecast high of 45 this morning, now calling for a high of 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 34 in Tulsa right now, TSA was calling for 42 today, now lowered to 40. Only about 4 more hours left to heat up, and I'm not sure I see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 DISCUSSION... Shallow cold air remains firmly entrenched over the area, with low cloudiness remaining trapped below the inversion. While there may be a few breaks later this afternoon, for the most part the clouds will remain. As such, have lowered afternoon high temperatures several degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Could probably bump up those snow totals for N OK a bit given expected snow-liquid ratios >10:1... Likely looking at 13:1 to 16:1 ratios across Southern Missouri/Kansas and Northern Oklahoma, with 17:1 to 20:1 ratios closer to the KC metro. Altogether it is looking increasingly likely that large portions of KS and MO will receive 5-10" totals (with some isolated amounts potentially exceeding 10 inches of snow, especially across SE KS and SW MO). Appears that there could be a pretty tight gradient across NE OK and NW AR, where 2-5"+ could fall, extreme NE OK could get closer to 6-8"... Whereas other parts of those regions could receive more nominal snow accumulations. Still should have some pause I suppose about higher snow totals existing over SE KS/SW MO (in addition to northern OK's overall snow potential, as well) given the differing solutions presented by the NAM and CMC (mainly the NAM though, as has been discussed) as opposed to the GFS/Euro solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, MUWX said: SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking. And the disappointment begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, JMT417 said: And the disappointment begins... I wouldn't get too worried about it yet. AFD says to expect changes over the next 24 hours. One thing of interest, they are going with the NAM short term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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