NwWhiteOut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 43 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Haha you got it man. This is a slop crap system like the others. Can't argue against trends. Winter threat is empty again. We're done. Yea man I am curious to see what happens or how well that forecast busts again lol. Sitting at, you guessed it 33 currently no kidding haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 00Z NAM is colder than previous runs FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Schools in the OKc metro area are starting to close for Tues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Models do seem to be going cooler tonight. Tulsa Mets/news still not impressed at all. Wonder if this will catch ppl off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Latest Nam has OKc metro with near 5 inches and Northern Oklahoma with 6 to 8 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Keep an eye on temps today. That is the key. Will be some impressive snowfall rates in areas that are cold enough for it. Borderline call either way with huge bust potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Well the temp here is 28 and I hope it holds to at or below the freezing mark . That and it would be nice to see the low go a little farther south ...don't like freezing mix slop as we have had enough of it already . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 It's oddly therapeutic for me to do this. Here is the 12Z 3K NAM. I outlined the 2 inch contour and highlighted Tulsa county. If this verified this way, I would rage. What is it about this area? It feels supernatural at this point! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Watching the freezing line today. It's pretty much running along I-44. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NWS delaying onset of precip thus delays wetbulbing, Hopefully we cool quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: NWS delaying onset of precip thus delays wetbulbing, Hopefully we cool quickly Actually, looking out my window downtown, things are getting wet. Freezing drizzle shown on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, ouamber said: Watching the freezing line today. It's pretty much running along I-44. Yep, its 37 here warmer than anticipated so far. I guess we will see, I dont have high hopes for this I know that lol. Tulsas forecast keeps changing and they have a mixed bag of everything mentioned now in my forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I'll be honest here. Tulsa NWS is doing the best they can, but I think they've conceded to the fact that this is nowcasting at this point. We truly just won't know until the precip arrives. It's hard to predict if it will rain hard enough to pull the colder air down and cool the column enough to counteract how warm it gets beforehand. I mean......how does one calculate the needed rate of rainfall necessary to counteract each degree? If it's 1 degree warmer than predicted, how much heavier does the precip need to be to cancel that out, etc? Kudos to TSA(and Norman) as this stuff is just a mess to predict. But until it starts falling and we see where that transition line is setting up, it's just all about using climatological norms, and and weather balloons/models to try and predict this, which in the 11th hour, is a crapshoot in this kind of set up(imo). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 16z HRRR shows a temp of 44 in Tulsa at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 16z HRRR shows a temp of 44 in Tulsa at 21z. HRRR has always been the warmest for this event. Doesn't mean its wrong necessarily, but it seems to be the warmest model by far. As of 11, it seems to be running 2-3 degrees to warm in SWMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Heavier preceip is crossing the Oklahoma/Texas line right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, lokee said: Heavier preceip is crossing the Oklahoma/Texas line right now It'll be good to watch those temps down there to see if they start dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 43 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I'll be honest here. Tulsa NWS is doing the best they can, but I think they've conceded to the fact that this is nowcasting at this point. We truly just won't know until the precip arrives. It's hard to predict if it will rain hard enough to pull the colder air down and cool the column enough to counteract how warm it gets beforehand. I mean......how does one calculate the needed rate of rainfall necessary to counteract each degree? If it's 1 degree warmer than predicted, how much heavier does the precip need to be to cancel that out, etc? Kudos to TSA(and Norman) as this stuff is just a mess to predict. But until it starts falling and we see where that transition line is setting up, it's just all about using climatological norms, and and weather balloons/models to try and predict this, which in the 11th hour, is a crapshoot in this kind of set up(imo). So true, I wouldnt want to be doing this stuff no way. Its fun to follow but probly a nightmare predicting this junk. It's just shy of 40 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 OU Norman is closing at 1pm. If the snow is delayed, does that hurt Tulsa's chances at snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma and Vicinity Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 191807Z - 192200Z SUMMARY...An area of precipitation lifting northward from the Red River will encounter colder air to the north. Both freezing rain and sleet will be possible within the I-44 corridor, including the OKC metro area. Farther northwest, snow will be more likely. Heaviest precipitation should occur between 2-4 pm CST. DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows an area of precipitation moving northward out of north Texas and crossing the Red River. Temperatures in the I-44 corridor have risen slightly since this morning to the low 30s with upper 20s to the northwest. A complicating factor in where the highest freezing rain potential will exist is the warmer surface temperatures in northeast Oklahoma leading to modest warm air advection into the discussion area. Dewpoints remain in the low 20s in that region, however, and some decrease in temperature due to precipitation-cooled air is possible as drier air continues to advect in. The 18 UTC OUN sounding shows a pronounced, saturated warm nose of +3-4C centered around 825 mb. This would indicate that freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation in this area, though some sleet is possible within heavier/convective elements. Farther to the northwest, generally colder 850 mb temperatures should keep more of the precipitation as snow. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur from 2-4 pm CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Raining in Moore right now. Nothing looks to be freezing this was about 30 mins ago. Has changed over to some light sleet at 1:08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Keeping an eye on the dews here in Fayetteville... temp of 39 but a dewpoint of 22 with moderate rain about to move in... could see some impressive evaporational cooling. (At least I can dream right ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Lightest bit of rain, sleet and snow all simultaneously fell in south Tulsa. As I type it’s straight sleet now. If it’s like this now, curious if that means sleet later when it picks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Lightest bit of rain, sleet and snow all simultaneously fell in south Tulsa. As I type it’s straight sleet now. If it’s like this now, curious if that means sleet later when it picks up. Just got some N of Owasso. Fairly heavy for a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Interesting. If that’s the thermal profile of the atmosphere now with light precipitation, I’d think that means when the heavier stuff moves in and drags the colder air down that we’d see all sleet and snow coming down moderately to heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: Interesting. If that’s the thermal profile of the atmosphere now with light precipitation, I’d think that means when the heavier stuff moves in and drags the colder air down that we’d see all sleet and snow coming down moderately to heavy. *crossing my fingers* I'm about to head out for lunch and scope out the weather. I'm on the north side of Tulsa today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Western Oklahoma out by Elk City has gotten some good snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Heavier precip here now but, it's mixed with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Temp 35, TD: 24 Moderate rain. Hoping for some cooling soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 This looks like an all rain event to me in SWMO. Looks like the HRRR may have nailed this one. Not sure if its too close to the event for the NAM to matter, but 12z run had 3-6 inches of 'snow,' 18z run says what snow. It has totally caved to the HRRR. Temps have soared past forecast highs. Currently sitting at 40, after the high was 35, it has now been bumped to 41. There is a huge spread in temps and dew points here, which could save us but that seems unlikely. Maybe some mixing in but after multiple forecasters were calling for snow amounts pushing an inch an hour at rush hour here, this really looks like a big miss. Could be wrong, but I don see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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