StormChazer Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I hear you! Hahaha. I've been watching this time frame for a bit now, FV3 has overall been pretty consistent at making up for the last 4 years with this storm. GFS has the moisture more to the south, but nudge that precip shield up 150 miles and itll look about the same as the FV3. Euro has a small icy area in the Arklatex area but that's about it. 7 days out and all major models say there's cold air and precip, some join them together for a great day, some don't, but the ingredients are there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 18z GFS similiar... Another storm to crush our hopes by Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 00z GFS more progressive with ice NW and S of NE OK. 00z V3 with enough ice to cause issues. 06z slower with significant ice. 06z V3 looking close to 00z. Euro brings system through fast with moisture gone before air makes in through. GFS and V3 images below. 06z GFS, 00z then 06z V3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Shaping up to be another intense run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Tulsa gets about 3-4 inches of sleet and 1/2 of freezing rain on the GFS 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Tulsa gets about 3-4 inches of sleet and 1/2 of freezing rain on the GFS 12Z That would pretty much shut everything down. Not sure I want that but, I certainly freaking want something exciting this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Well then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 ....and how much of that is actual snow? Cause...if that's ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 41 minutes ago, ouamber said: ....and how much of that is actual snow? Cause...if that's ice.... 2.5 inches of liquid so I would say mostly snow. Freezing rain-->Sleet-->then Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 2.5 inches of liquid so I would say mostly snow. Freezing rain-->Sleet-->then Snow Snow and sleet both accumulate at 10 to 1 with that model, so that's probably not mostly snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Interesting. Sleet should be closer to 3. Good to know on that model. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Euro just isn't biting on this at all. Someone is going to cave this weekend though. Will it be the GFS or Euro. Furthermore, who has performed better this season so far? Also, NWS in Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Wayyyyy to far out lol, not buying any of this hype to be burnt again until its closer. Bullseye for here on that, will probly be far north and smash KC again who knows. In the meantime how is everyone enjoying this weird a** blowtorch weather we are currently having? Its 59 here lol, mid 60's to come....insane stuff for Feb I tell ya!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Euro just isn't biting on this at all. Someone is going to cave this weekend though. Will it be the GFS or Euro. Furthermore, who has performed better this season so far? Also, NWS in Tulsa. I wouldn't count on them agreeing this weekend, I expect them to come into agreement next Friday. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Based on NWS Tulsa’s disco this afternoon those maps are errors. They are going with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 46 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Based on NWS Tulsa’s disco this afternoon those maps are errors. They are going with the Euro. Fair statements considering their performance this year. They pulled their chiclet snow totals down to 1/3 inch of snow. “Still some significant differences in the operational models concerning strong upper level storm system that will impact the region Thursday into Friday. Generally trended toward the more compact and progressive ECMWF solution that sweeps strong cold front through the area on Thursday. With this scenario, overall winter weather potential would remain limited as showers/thunderstorms move east before the colder air moves in behind front.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 ugh...boooooooo!!!! Can the Euro ever be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 54 minutes ago, ouamber said: ugh...boooooooo!!!! Can the Euro ever be wrong? Pretty sure it has been wrong several times this winter already but it was wrong when it was calling for snow and the GFS was not. IMO, side with the model that shows nothing then wait and see what happens. Typically, the model that shows nothing, is the correct solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 00z GFS siding towards Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 V3 does except it puts some some decent snow N of I44. Hammers NE TX with ice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 11 hours ago, Weatherdemon said: V3 does except it puts some some decent snow N of I44. Hammers NE TX with ice though. Shocker lol, is like I said it will probly give KC the smack down again I'm sure. Maybe I will go there if it pans out for kc again haha. My friend in Iowa sent me a pic yesterday and it looked like he had about 5-8" of snow on the ground there still! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2-2 18z run of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, lokee said: 2-2 18z run of GFS Looks like 3 potential systems Thurs-Sun on this run. Shallow cold air going to make things interesting. Knowing this season, we’ll be 33 and get 2 inches of rain, LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 V3 coming in with ice for SE OK. I’m kind of liking having one N and one S. maybe they’ll meet in the middle! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Looks like a chance of freezing drizzle Tuesday night/Wed morning. Worse kind of precip at the worse time in terms of roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 I cannot believe how warm it has been, ok I am ready for spring for sure now lol. Lets be done with these weird a** temp swings. Anyone else have weeds growing in their yards lol? They are everywhere here its insane, gonna have to bust out the weed eater already haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: I cannot believe how warm it has been, ok I am ready for spring for sure now lol. Lets be done with these weird a** temp swings. Anyone else have weeds growing in their yards lol? They are everywhere here its insane, gonna have to bust out the weed eater already haha Yah man its just like last winter. Getting weeds early, nothing has changed. I'm gonna go ahead and throw in the towel on this winter, not happening. I don't like the new norm around here. Even the deep south gets more winter than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah man its just like last winter. Getting weeds early, nothing has changed. I'm gonna go ahead and throw in the towel on this winter, not happening. I don't like the new norm around here. Even the deep south gets more winter than us. Yea its just insanity, I dont think I have ever seen a warmer weird winter!!! Seen some warm ones here but nothing like this crazyness for sure lol. I'm with ya, throwing in as well haha. They are calling for some mixed junk later in the week but Im just not buying it, its freaking 74 out there according to my weather station. Maybe this summer is gonna be a sauna who knows!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Yea its just insanity, I dont think I have ever seen a warmer weird winter!!! Seen some warm ones here but nothing like this crazyness for sure lol. I'm with ya, throwing in as well haha. They are calling for some mixed junk later in the week but Im just not buying it, its freaking 74 out there according to my weather station. Maybe this summer is gonna be a sauna who knows!!! Yah who knows huh! Maybe we need that really hot and dry summer to bust this pattern up. I'm all for it so be it lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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