ouamber Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 AFD TUL Attention then turns to the wintry weather potential on Saturday. Model solutions change the track of the upper storm system with each run. One of the extended models brings the upper low well south of its previous track, while another model brings the upper low over Tulsa. This solution would keep the heaviest snow within the deformation band north of Tulsa. For now, we have high confidence that temperatures will be warm enough for all rain Friday night, with the cold air moving into northeast Oklahoma early Saturday morning. If the system is a bit slower, with more of a closed low, there could be a 2-4 hour period of moderate snow Saturday morning, across portions of northeast Oklahoma. There will likely be a transition zone of a rain/snow mix, or snow with sleet mixing in. By Saturday afternoon, it should be cold enough for all snow, but the forcing for ascent will also be departing the area, which will limit the time for accumulating snow given current forecast data. This airmass will be the coldest of the season, and combined with strong northwest winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, wind chill values in the single digits are likely by Saturday night and Sunday morning. In areas where we get accumulating snow, the wind could cause blowing and drifting. Precipitation moves out quickly on Saturday night, but Sunday will be cold with highs in the 20s and 30s. Another chance for wintry precipitation arrives by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, just beyond this forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbkemp Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not that it matters on Tuesday but there is still a nice snowpack from Topeka to Omaha and Lincoln. Overcast and 35 does not support much melt. Good luck with snow in Tulsa from this long timer lurker!. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Again no words for how crappy all this cold rain is non stop, it's just getting old now! I guess things can and probly will change but who knows. Such a shame, I know I keep saying that but the moisture is just there every week...we just desperately need cold air and better storm tracks. So heartbreaking, I feel like Im being dumped over and over but by mother nature haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 06z GFS hinting at some heavier deformation zone snows moving across part of the region Saturday. I'm hoping this is a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Definitely need to watch trends. Remember last week's system was trending in a specific direction as the models converged on a specific solution. The same will likely happen with this system as well. Won't be fully sampled until tomorrow I believe, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 TSA Discussion DISCUSSION... Forecast focus remains squarely on the strong storm system set to move through Friday night and into Saturday, with strong thunderstorms, accumulating snow, significantly colder temperatures, and low wind chills all possible. Models continue to struggle with consistency in timing and the eventual path of the surface and upper level features, and as such, low confidence remains in the details surrounding this event. Presently, low stratus deck continues across most of the forecast area, with expansion of the cloud deck likely to lead to at least mostly cloudy skies most locations by daybreak. Expect cloudy skies to persist for much of the day as low level moisture expands ahead of a fast moving disturbance that will push through the region tonight. Have kept toward the lower end of guidance for temperatures today due to the expected cloud cover. Showers and/or drizzle will be possible overnight as the disturbance moves through. Clouds should diminish some behind the disturbance, resulting in highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. Cloud cover will increase again from the west during the day Friday as the stronger system approaches, with the initial rain still expected to hold off until the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front still look to be a good bet, especially across southeast Oklahoma, given forecast instability. Any strong thunderstorm potential should be limited to areas near the Red River, where CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg are currently forecast. With the current models trending slower, the thunderstorm potential will linger into early Saturday morning. This slower trend will also delay the onset of any notable wintry precipitation until after daybreak Saturday. It continues to look like most areas will see rain with a transition to snow, although there still looks like there could be a narrow buffer time frame when freezing rain/sleet could be possible. Accumulations of either will be negligible with snow dominating in the wintry precipitation department. Besides the slower model trend, there is also a more southerly trend than the 15/00Z suite, more like the 15/12Z suite. If this trend holds, this could place the maximum amounts in eastern Oklahoma farther south than the Kansas border and perhaps similarly in northwest Arkansas. For now, will go with a broad brush 2 to 3 inch area north of I-40 given the difficulty in pinpointing where any snow band might set up. Precipitation remains likely to move out by early Sunday morning. With regards to the expected cold temperatures, the cold air intrusion does not look quite as strong this morning as it did 24 hours ago. Forecast temperatures from Saturday night into early next week will be a few degrees higher this cycle but not significantly so. The likelihood of single digit wind chills late Saturday night and early Sunday morning remains high. There will be a good warmup early next week immediately ahead of the next system set to move through Tuesday and into Wednesday. This system will have some winter weather potential as well, although details with this one are even more uncertain than the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not overly excited again. There looks to be a narrow deformation type band to the north of wherever the upper low temporarily closes off. The system is still too positive tilted to really sling snow back in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z Gfs tries to close it off for a short while over N AR Saturday morning. System just not very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z Euro with the stronger band in E KS and W MO this run. North of me. Closes the low off briefly by hour 84 over E AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro with the stronger band in E KS and W MO this run. North of me. Closes the low off briefly by hour 84 over E AR. If I'm not mistaken the Euro lead the way on last weekend's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Interesting that Met. Joe Lauria (FOX 4 KC) was mentioning the fact that models tend to perform worse when there is a lot of "noise" going on. Taking a look in the Pacific, the parade of storms and energy is very chaotic. I think this is what he is alluding to. Trend has been moving more in line with less deep arctic air but increasingly likely that many of us see some snow. Don't see this being "just a cold rain" for any north of US 412 from Tulsa eastward to NE AR. At least that is what I am thinking at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: If I'm not mistaken the Euro lead the way on last weekend's system. Big shift N from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On queue, the NAM kills the snow in NE OK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 34 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: On queue, the NAM kills the snow in NE OK. I wouldn't jump ship based on the 18z nam, but I would also stop getting my hopes up 5+ days in advance of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, MUWX said: I wouldn't jump ship based on the 18z nam, but I would also stop getting my hopes up 5+ days in advance of the storm. Haven't had my hopes up about anything with this storm. One run doesn't kill it but, this is about the time frame that the models had begun to kill off the previous storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Aaaannnddd 18zGFS is taking a north jog too. I've never seen a more unlucky pattern for Tulsa and NE OK in my life! Storms go west, north, south, east..... unbelievable! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, ouamber said: Aaaannnddd 18zGFS is taking a north jog too. I've never seen a more unlucky pattern for Tulsa and NE OK in my life! Storms go west, north, south, east..... unbelievable! Is so depressing I know . The terrible luck continues here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovableweatherguy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So sorry for you guys down there. Believe me we've been down that road many times here in Saint Louis. We are finally getting our due! Hope this active pattern we are all in hits you plenty before Spring hits. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Too bad the 12Z ECMWF has really backed off on potential snow amounts for southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, garfan said: Too bad the 12Z ECMWF has really backed off on potential snow amounts for southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Just like every other model. Its been almost a year exactly since one of these trended in a positive direction as the event neared this area. When it comes to forecasting winter weather in this area, on technique works best, persistence forecasting, forecast the what has been happening until something different actually happens. For all the excitement there has been regarding the next week to 10 days, its now looking cool to cold with a few flurries mixed in, nothing has changed yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Can we say NEXT yet lol? Probly huh, pathetic winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovableweatherguy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This storm in STL this weekend is nowhere near as clear cut as this past storm. Alot of bust potential! Every model was is pretty good agreement for the last one. This one not so much. Classic STL storm coming up. Rain to snow or rain to......nothing. lolSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Oh looky now I am seeing thunderstorms and rain for tomorrow night at 34 (banjo anyone? sound familiar yet). I mean how many times can this happen, something has to give eventually right? Ok rant and whines over for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hmmmm. Nam entertaining the idea of some snow after all up here. 1-2 inches with a very narrow band of 6 inches. If the low closes off, someone in NE OK/NW AR may get a surprise out of this. Not holding onto my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 34 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Hmmmm. Nam entertaining the idea of some snow after all up here. 1-2 inches with a very narrow band of 6 inches. If the low closes off, someone in NE OK/NW AR may get a surprise out of this. Not holding onto my breath though. HRRR liking some snow in E OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z HRRR not too far off the 6z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 HRRR 12z Edit: Just realized you posted a higher res of this, WeatherDemon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hmm seems like this forecast is changing again some, I see 26 as a low tonight now and they are saying rain over to freezing rain(with thunder possible) and then snow up until noon tomorrow. Could something maybe surprise us or someone on here, maybe a good possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The kiss of death, WWA issued for here now from 11 tonight til 8am tomorrow. Lets see if number 4(or 3 now whatever) busts lol. Minor snow and ice accums Tulsa is saying with some thunder possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 HRRR shows a decent thunderstorm in Tulsa tonight but has backed off on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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