JoMo Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yeah, there's still a lot of run to run differences showing up from model run to model run on each individual model as can be expected with a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 00z GFS is going to have a big winter storm it looks like. Really digging the energy into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Yep. Probably more to come as well. Yep... what an insane run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 47 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yep. Probably more to come as well. Yep... what an insane run... Absolutely crazy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 GFS snow depth chart has me around 20 inches on 12/27. I'll gladly take that run.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 GFS sure likes to make things interesting. To bad all of this is in crazy model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Last 3 GFS runs are back some winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Very interested to see what happens with all of this. Being so far out, it's silly to focus on any one model, but there is definitely an overall consensus that the ingredients for a winter event are in place. I moved to Tulsa 2 years ago from Dallas, hoping that I would get more wintry precip...but so far the last 2 winters have been duds. Here's to hoping! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 Man, that -EPO ridge just won't go away. This is similar to about 4-5 years ago when we had those back to back years where the -EPO ridge persisted and we got tons of cold and snow was above average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Definitely more interesting and fun to have something to watch. I think we all can agree that an ice storm isn't what we want especially right at Christmas. Hard to say this far out if the cold air is shallow and stalls out around the Ozark Mountains. The GFS has hinted at that recently with the strong SER We shall see And if I remember correctly, JoMo has stated previously that a -EPO is our most crucial teleconnection for wintry weather. Even with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 34 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Definitely more interesting and fun to have something to watch. I think we all can agree that an ice storm isn't what we want especially right at Christmas. Hard to say this far out if the cold air is shallow and stalls out around the Ozark Mountains. The GFS has hinted at that recently with the strong SER We shall see And if I remember correctly, JoMo has stated previously that a -EPO is our most crucial teleconnection for wintry weather. Even with a +NAO. We can get cold with -EPO or -AO. The last few winters have had a predominantly +AO which doesn't bode well for cold here. (I think 2012-2013 was last fullish -AO winter) So the other way is the -EPO which delivers the cold air. I think a neutral PNA was best for wintry weather though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Euro is really rockin' the cold air next weekend. There is a 40F temperature swing from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Mike Morgan from KFOR already talking about the possibility of wintry precipitation on Christmas, 11 days away. Such a bad representative for mets everywhere, despite being in a state whose flagship university is known for meteorology. "LATEST LOOK at Christmas Day in OKC. This forecast is based on a LOT of different and constantly changing forecasts from about 150 computer models a DAY. General PATTERN of all of these COLDER with MOISTURE POSSIBLE. Still 12 days away but will track it." https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/941163647463813120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Mike Morgan from KFOR already talking about the possibility of wintry precipitation on Christmas, 11 days away. Such a bad representative for mets everywhere, despite being in a state whose flagship university is known for meteorology. "LATEST LOOK at Christmas Day in OKC. This forecast is based on a LOT of different and constantly changing forecasts from about 150 computer models a DAY. General PATTERN of all of these COLDER with MOISTURE POSSIBLE. Still 12 days away but will track it." https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/941163647463813120 Love his EF+/- forecasts on severe days. Those are *super* helpful While I think the chances of snow on or near Christmas are greater than average this year...to make an 11 day forecast with hourly timing is absolutely absurd and dishonest as to the current capabilities of the field of meteorology. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Hi Everyone!! Long time...no chat! Of course like everyone, I'm getting excited about the "potential winter weather". We are due for snow in Tulsa and across Oklahoma...I still have bugs! Come on...kill these suckers!!! My favorite Okie mets are Mike Collier KJRH Tulsa, Aaron Tuttle, Travis Meyer KOTV Tulsa, David Payne KWTV OKC. None of those guys go overboard, and are quick to caution what gets put out on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said: Love his EF+/- forecasts on severe days. Those are *super* helpful While I think the chances of snow on or near Christmas are greater than average this year...to make an 11 day forecast with hourly timing is absolutely absurd and dishonest as to the current capabilities of the field of meteorology. Pretty sure you summed up mike morgan as a whole right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 It will be interesting to see if the models get even colder the closer we get to the event. I seem to recall them not being cold enough with the cold air back in the big EPO years a few years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Welcome back everyone!! Nice to see all the familiar people once again, lets hope for some snow now wooohooo!!! Of course it's too far out and not getting my hopes up yet though haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 No cutoff on the 00z GFS. Also more of a +PNA look towards the end of the run so trough is more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 42 minutes ago, JoMo said: No cutoff on the 00z GFS. Also more of a +PNA look towards the end of the run so trough is more east. 00Z GFS looks like an outlier run for how the trough develops (I.e., no cutoff). Not sure how to take it. Guess we'll see what the EC says later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 17 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 00Z GFS looks like an outlier run for how the trough develops (I.e., no cutoff). Not sure how to take it. Guess we'll see what the EC says later. 00z GEFS made the 00z GFS look like an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GEFS made the 00z GFS look like an outlier. What has the euro been showing? Haven't had a chance to look lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, MUWX said: What has the euro been showing? Haven't had a chance to look lately Eh 00z Euro had a cutoff it buries over the Baja. Overall, really 'meh' run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 06 GFS was back. Nasty storm for Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I've been reading what Doug Heady and Gary Lezak have to say about the Christmas system, and they couldn't be more different. Doug has kept the same tone for about a week now, and Gary had flip flopped every model run. Gary went from a 10% chance of a while Christmas, to a 55% chance back to a 15% chance in 24 hours. They both use the recurring cycle, but it's pretty obvious that Gary is just following the models for this one, while it seems Doug actually has faith in the recurring pattern idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: I've been reading what Doug Heady and Gary Lezak have to say about the Christmas system, and they couldn't be more different. Doug has kept the same tone for about a week now, and Gary had flip flopped every model run. Gary went from a 10% chance of a while Christmas, to a 55% chance back to a 15% chance in 24 hours. They both use the recurring cycle, but it's pretty obvious that Gary is just following the models for this one, while it seems Doug actually has faith in the recurring pattern idea. Lezak's pattern doesn't work in years like this one until it's already almost too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Lezak's pattern doesn't work in years like this one until it's already almost too late. Aren't Doug and his basically the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 12z GEM looks great @ 240. Snow breaking out from Wichita Falls, TX up through OK into very NW AR and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 38 minutes ago, MUWX said: Aren't Doug and his basically the same? I never really followed the Heady pattern so I can't really speak to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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