StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 HRRR coming in a little faster than the NAM, these are both at 10Z Thursday. Faster means more cold air sticking around which means more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfan Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I am always trying to learn more in regards to forecasting. I even read AFD's and take notes when something is mentioned I have never heard before. 'StormChazer' you mentioned above "faster means more cold air sticking around". Care to share why is that so? I just assumed that faster would relate to warmer, and that less precip would have time to fall. If this is the wrong place in the forum to ask, forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, garfan said: I am always trying to learn more in regards to forecasting. I even read AFD's and take notes when something is mentioned I have never heard before. 'StormChazer' you mentioned above "faster means more cold air sticking around". Care to share why is that so? I just assumed that faster would relate to warmer, and that less precip would have time to fall. If this is the wrong place in the forum to ask, forgive me. So I'm no meteorologist, but weather has been my passion since I was in the 3rd grade(I'm 28 now), so disclaimer that what I say may not be 100% accurate. In regards to this storm, it's all about cold air. The cold air will be retreating today and tomorrow, so earlier models pushed this storm out quicker, resulting in there being plenty of cold air to work with(combined with the fact that this storm is a cold core storm). But the last couple days' runs slowed the storm down by about 24-32 hours, meaning it had less cold air to work with, so snowfall is ENTIRELY dependent on that cold core. So when the storm went slower, it went more south, keeping that cold core just out of reach for certain areas. If the storm sped up, while it would mean less snow to an extent, the snowfall rates in those deformation bands will still be very high, so it's relatively negligible in my opinion. Hope that helps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Euro running right now. The northern trend is continuing......Tulsa, there may be hope yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, garfan said: I am always trying to learn more in regards to forecasting. I even read AFD's and take notes when something is mentioned I have never heard before. 'StormChazer' you mentioned above "faster means more cold air sticking around". Care to share why is that so? I just assumed that faster would relate to warmer, and that less precip would have time to fall. If this is the wrong place in the forum to ask, forgive me. To add to the above post by StormChazer: This storm doesn't have a connection to the northern stream, the flow is of Pacific origin behind it, so areas have to rely on the 'stale' cold air that's already in place which will gradually warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Here's the 2 runs side by side. Definitely a NE shift in the snow area. That gradient in Tulsa county goes from a trace in North Tulsa, to 6 inches in the bottom corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Very interesting... Hopefully things will continue to evolve for the better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfan Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Thank you both StormChazer and JoMO for the lesson here. It makes sense now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfan Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I saw a video on Twitter of snow coming down that mentioned NW AR. The NWS Tulsa asked the person who posted it where it was taken. They replied Rogers, AR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 It should be noted that Tulsa NWS was predicting a high of 36 earlier for today, and it's now thinking 33 as a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Wow, what a close one this could turn out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Serenity8 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 But that’s just the Euro, can’t put all the eggs in one basket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Tulsa keeps expanding the WWA ENE. Basically E of I44 now. Tulsa not included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 18z HRRR is running and it shows Okc getting near inch and half of snow by 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 You can make out the position the low in this shot of the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garfan Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 KFOR-TV is now stating a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for portions of cenntral and southern Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just got back from Ft.Smith and it was 40 down there and raining fairly well, 32 here in fayetteville with off and on sprinkles. WWA in effect until 6, so is there hope for this next storm or what? Trying to play catch-up on here sounds like the track is shifting more NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, garfan said: KFOR-TV is now stating a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for portions of cenntral and southern Oklahoma. It's being discussed internally (NWSChat), but we'll see what actually comes out with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, David Reimer said: It's being discussed internally (NWSChat), but we'll see what actually comes out with the afternoon package. They are probably thinking about the last bust.. and that was just a watch. I would wait for 00z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 NWS in Norman adjusting totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I'm on the SW side of Tulsa, right on the Creek County/Tulsa County line....hoping it travels further NE! Wishing we could all cash in on this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 OUN pulled the trigger on the Warning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Latest GFS brings the precip shield back into Tulsa solidly, but has it as rain. GFS doesn't perform as well with the cold air, so if it's off just a couple degrees, we could be looking at snow instead of a rain/sleet mix in Tulsa metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 18Z RGEM metogram has .70 snow for OKC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I'm expecting TSA to upgrade Creek county, Okfuskee, Mcintosh and Hughes to a Winter storm warning, advisories into Tulsa, Wagoner and Muskogee. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 HRRR is constantly spitting this thing out quicker than the NAM. Here's 8AM on the HRRR And here's 8AM on the NAM. The NAM is lagging behind by about 4 hours right now, which in this scenario, where a single degree makes a world of difference, that's pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 TSA not biting on snow for Tulsa Metro. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 407 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019 .DISCUSSION... Complicated forecast this afternoon with ongoing areas of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle in parts of eastern OK and northwest AR that prompted a Winter Weather Advisory earlier today. Surface temperatures have gone virtually nowhere as warm conveyor precip continues to spread north up to near I-44 with a sharp cutoff on the northern edge. Temps are and will likely remain below freezing from about McAlester to Eureka Springs with slight moderation possible later tonight. Although short-wave ridging aloft will be over the are tonight, a near saturated layer will persist up through around 850mb per high res model soundings, thus while threat of measurable rainfall will eventually shift east, some patchy areas of freezing drizzle cannot be discounted. Thus have extended the Advisory into Thursday morning, as some slick overpasses have been reported. Potent upper low currently centered west of ELP will continue to move east Thursday, with a track somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River. Precip will begin to increase Thursday morning into the afternoon as the low moves east. Freezing remain potential during the morning will persist, and concern is that temperatures will not moderate much at all in the vicinity of heaviest precip band which is currently expected to set up close to the I-40 corridor. If temps remain cold enough a band of significant ice accumulation may set up and this will need to be watched closely. By afternoon most if not all locations should finally warm above freezing but again this is no guarantee where heaviest precip falls. For now will handle the potential with extension of existing Advisory. Areas in closer proximity to the upper low track will eventually see enough cooling through deeper layer to result in a chance to snow, with some potential for accumulations mainly across southeast OK in elevated terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Pretty solid little band of sleet just moved through NW Edmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: Pretty solid little band of sleet just moved through NW Edmond Interesting the HRRR latest doesn't show that. Also looks like some freezing drizzle is forming NW of Tulsa on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Interesting the HRRR latest doesn't show that. Also looks like some freezing drizzle is forming NW of Tulsa on radar. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if the sleet in OKC makes it up to Tulsa, it's certainly cold enough for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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