MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

[garfan]

The weather office in Springfield, MO not totally sold on what the ECMWF continues to suggest.

[Wx 24/7]

TSA more aggressive but still being cautious this far out (as advised). 

Forecast still remains challenging for mid week as strong upper trough
moves out of the desert southwest and begins to impact the area.
GFS remains the most progressive with system although has trended
a little slower/further north, more towards the ECMWF which still
develops closed low that tracks directly over area. Initially
expect the potential for light freezing rain across southeast
Oklahoma Wednesday morning ahead of main system. Generally stayed
with a blend of the two solutions but with precipitation transitioning
to snow Wednesday night as cold core low moves over the region.
Given the uncertainty with exact track/evolution of upper low and
subsequent thermal profiles, stayed with relatively low snow
accumulations for now. Again, this will depend of track which
remains uncertain at this point. Any winter weather threat should
end during the day Thursday as upper system shift east.

 

 

[StormChazer]

GFS is now in agreement with euro and nam, drops 7+ inches in NE OK, I’m into Missouri and Arkansas.

[StormChazer]

I'll take member 3 please.

 

But euro and nam seem to slow it down some, making it more of a Thursday event than a Wednesday evening. we will see.

[garfan]

I like the image above, but there is no way that will happen. I do find it odd, but slightly humorous that the Oklahoma TV stations at least on social media (Facebook/Twitter) are pretty quiet about what might happen regarding this potential winter event.

[WhiteoutWX]

1 hour ago, garfan said:

I like the image above, but there is no way that will happen. I do find it odd, but slightly humorous that the Oklahoma TV stations at least on social media (Facebook/Twitter) are pretty quiet about what might happen regarding this potential winter event.

Well after the major bust with the last winter storm in early December I think most mets are taking an understandably more cautious approach this time.

[Wx 24/7]

This better not be a slopfest with nothing to show at the end of the event. Boo if so. 

 

[ouamber]

It's gonna come down to when this system kicks out. If it comes later on Friday, the cold air has retreated. We almost need it to be faster...and come Wednesday into Thursday. 

[Weatherdemon]

Potential is certainly there. And, yea, everyone is being cautious after the last bust.

[Doramo]

16 hours ago, MUWX said:

Pretty quiet in here, last bust scare everyone off?

Yep!   

[NwWhiteOut]

Now the forecast goes from all snow to slop lol, time for the craziness to begin haha.

[WhiteoutWX]

Euro absolutely crushes OKC-TUL corridor with narrow but heavy deform band. 

[StormChazer]

Latest Euro run.

[lokee]

Nam 12-31 12z run 

[Weatherdemon]

18z NAM with a few hours of snow left according to sim reflectivity

[Weatherdemon]

18z NAM

[Weatherdemon]

Tulsa NWS

 

 

[rockchalk83]

1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said:

18z NAM with a few hours of snow left according to sim reflectivity

I’ll take ALL of that. But it’s the NAM at >12 hours so...

[StormChazer]

A Winter Storm Watch just went up west of DFW.

[garfan]

Tweet earlier today from Meteorologist Damon Lane at KOCO having a little fun. 

"Oklahoma Metorologists: if you speak the snow storm into existence, then it will vanish."

[JoMo]

Looks like a sloppy mess that will melt off quickly, but it'll probably be pretty coming down for some people. 

[Doramo]

Not much being said at NWS Springfield for my area,, just this:

A light wintry mix will fall from Wednesday night into Friday
morning...with the precipitation changing over to rain for a
period Thursday.

  At 80% chance for slop . Still have time for significant changes (for the better I Hope)

[lokee]

01-01 00z nam run

[Doramo]

Huh?  One would think with the forecast being only two days away things would come to a settled prediction but ? NWS Springfield,MO

"Interesting forecast ahead as models continue their differing
run to run solutions with the approach of the upper closed low
tracking through the Southern Plains.

Ah what a difference 12 hours makes. The 12z NAM offered
continuity with the 00z ECMWF initially offering a boost in
confident...then the 12z ECMWF came into line with the previously
outlier GFS...which now leaves the NAM as the outlier which
offered a solution that coupled the upper level jets associated
with the approaching upper low and shortwave over the Great Lakes
occurs. While the juxtaposition isn`t ideal...the ageostrophic
flow enhances lift throughout the column particularly above 700 MB
and enhances frontogenesis. Further the NAM shows a response in
the low levels with a significant surge in the low level moisture
advection as the system approaches the forecast area. This is all
while sub freezing temperatures arrives with this system
...resulting in a concerning amount of freezing rain.

Again while this would lead to a greater impact and still needs to
be monitored...the evolving model solutions have largely come in
line with the 00z GFS in tracking the system well southward...
reducing accumulations of a wintry mix on Wednesday
night/Thursday. However...this solution leads to wraparound lift
on the back side of the system and the development of snow
accumulations into Friday.

I must suggest caution in this deterministic determination as
later runs will be critical in determining the temperature profile
of the lower atmosphere."

[David Reimer]

After the early December model clusterbomb, I certainly understand offices being skeptical. Assuming deterministic models and their ensembles come into decent agreement tonight I'd expect various winter weather products to be issued by the midnight crews. Texas/Oklahoma offices have been great with the collaboration conferences this year, so whatever eventually gets issued will be done in a regional fashion with the morning forecasts.

[garfan]

At this time rooting for the 06Z NAM. Southern MO and Northern AR often sees some of it's better snows when the storm track pivots northeast around the Texarkana/Ft. Smith area.

[WhiteoutWX]

Models are in pretty good agreement of a pretty stubborn warm nose at 850mb for most people north of I-40 and east of I-35 in Oklahoma. This looks like a southwest OK special to me, with OKC metro still close enough for some favorable shifts. Tulsa and on NE I'm skeptical they see substantial accumulations as the surface temps are warmer and mid-levels just take too long to cool. 12Z NAM shows a narrow deform band for NE OK/SW MO but the location of that will continue to shift around.

IF that deform band can become a little better organized than shown then we could see more substantial accumulations along the I-44 corridor, but the temps are going to be razor thin and will require some heavy rates/dynamical cooling for this to happen. Definitely a low confidence forecast still.

[NwWhiteOut]

Meh dont have high hopes for this one either, temps look iffy now. Looks to be a very cold rain event here with a smidge of flurries or zr on the tail end yet again, maybe it will change lol.

[Doramo]

The models are pushing this farther south of which I hope it readjusts back toward the north . 

https://forecast.weather.gov/
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Light snow may be possible Wednesday night into Thursday night.
There remains uncertainty on the exact track of this system, so
there are questions on how much of the area will be affected. At
this time far southern Missouri will have the better potential for
seeing any snow across the outlook area.

[garfan]

There is Winter Storm Watch in place in much of central and western Oklahoma. About an hour ago the NWS Norman, OK tweeted this...

"There is still some uncertainty with the forecast for the upcoming winter weather Wed. night into Thursday. The models have trended the system slower, warmer, and further south, all of which impact winter precip amounts and location."