Wx 24/7 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Actually 12z GFS gives us a nice snow in SW MO on Thursday night into Friday morning. I am not biting yet. But... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 The 14th of this month looks interesting 06 GFS. Takes a low right across okc. Temp profiles look to warm at the surface though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 If only...Hahah. GFS was kinda right last time though XD, I'll believe it if it's within 20 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Long range NAM picking up on it a little bit as well. GFS and NAM have the low in similar places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Here's the 06z GFS-FV3 for comparison. It lines up well with it's older counterpart, plus the 00z EURO & 00z Canadian: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 yeah that system is going to be a pain. A narrow area of very heavy snow would be possible assuming everything comes together just right. Unfortunate that the cold air will largely be bottled up to the north and it will depend on system dynamics to produce that small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: yeah that system is going to be a pain. A narrow area of very heavy snow would be possible assuming everything comes together just right. Unfortunate that the cold air will largely be bottled up to the north and it will depend on system dynamics to produce that small area. Completely agree. It will be one of those systems where it will be 36 or 37 and snowing but will take 1-2"/hour rates to accumulate on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 And it'll melt off by the afternoon, but while it falls it'll be a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 Euro has a nice -EPO showing up towards Christmas. Actually starts building in about 10 days. But... also a -PNA showing up. It would be awful to dump all the cold air in the west. Hopefully that changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, StormChazer said: When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK. When it starts lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: When it starts lol Certainly the best way to avoid disappointment! Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, StormChazer said: When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK. I'll probably hit the wind threat in my forecasts tomorrow with a low-chance of a rain/snow mix as precipitation ends from west to east across Central/Eastern OK into Texoma. I won't even mention accumulations (if at all) until Wednesday at the earliest. A cold core upper low is a weatherman's woe - and usually, do produce big surprises in the winter precipitation department. Combined with the anticipated wind, it wouldn't take much snow to create 'official' blizzard conditions in a few spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, StormChazer said: When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK. Never, not until it actually happens lol. Looks to get balmy by the end of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 There is a guy on my FB page that is calling the TV weather guys, I do not think he knows there are guys in Norman, doing nothing more than spreading fake weather b/c of last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Larry Cosgrove had a nice long-range write-up last Saturday. Worth the read if you haven't yet. https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/weatheramerica/0pZ9780WViA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I think someone between Abilene and Ft. Worth has a decent shot of some accumulating, heavy wet snow Thursday late afternoon into Friday morning. Exactly where is highly uncertain and it’s likely to be a small area with the right overlap of heavy rates and cold mid and upper level temps on the west/northwest side of the upper low. I think most of Oklahoma will be too far north for this one (again!), but ULLs are notoriously tricky to forecast so don’t be surprised if there are some last minute adjustments. One thing that looks clear and will be widespread will be the WINDS on the backside of this thing. Widespread 50-60mph wind gusts look likely west of I35 in OK and Texas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 If only we were 10 degrees colder today..this storm could've been real interesting! Cold Rain Sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, ouamber said: If only we were 10 degrees colder today..this storm could've been real interesting! Cold Rain Sucks! Seems we’ve received a lot of this the last few years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Ok, this warmth has got to go lol! Nearly the middle of December and I see nothing but upper 50's in the forecast. I really hope it gets cold towards the end of this month or near Christmas (I think a few of you hinted around at this I cant remember haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 What an utterly ugly 12z Euro EPS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovableweatherguy Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Ya things don't look as good as they did a week or so ago for the Holidays as far as cold. Active pattern still looks decent. Kinda sucks when you want snow for Christmas. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Minus November, it seems we are following the same crazy weird pattern swings like we have been stuck in the last 4 years now! Same ole same ole, warm chilly warm chilly nonsense. Moisture has been there for some time now but it's just these weird temp. patterns. Its like clockwork every darn year it seems, at least so far again. I really hope we don't repeat this pattern yet again this season idk lol. While snow would be awesome for Christmas, I would at least like it to be cold and not balmy like this sighhhh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 19 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said: Minus November, it seems we are following the same crazy weird pattern swings like we have been stuck in the last 4 years now! Same ole same ole, warm chilly warm chilly nonsense. Moisture has been there for some time now but it's just these weird temp. patterns. Its like clockwork every darn year it seems, at least so far again. I really hope we don't repeat this pattern yet again this season idk lol. While snow would be awesome for Christmas, I would at least like it to be cold and not balmy like this sighhhh. I don't think we are destined for the same pattern this year. I want to say December was predicted to be a bit warmer and not as favored for winter weather as Nov and then subsequently Jan/Feb. But I can't remember where I had heard that. Still, if you think about it, we had the small snow event in Nov, and then the very near miss a couple weeks ago, which honestly, the last couple years I don't remember near misses so much as just the storm not getting it's act together until it was in east MO and then into the OH valley, or the storms would go waaaayyyy south giving the gulf coast snow. This pattern doesn't feel the same to me, but that's just my opinion. It looks like sometime around the new year, give or take a day or two, we might have our next shot at something wintry. So here's to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: I don't think we are destined for the same pattern this year. I want to say December was predicted to be a bit warmer and not as favored for winter weather as Nov and then subsequently Jan/Feb. But I can't remember where I had heard that. Still, if you think about it, we had the small snow event in Nov, and then the very near miss a couple weeks ago, which honestly, the last couple years I don't remember near misses so much as just the storm not getting it's act together until it was in east MO and then into the OH valley, or the storms would go waaaayyyy south giving the gulf coast snow. This pattern doesn't feel the same to me, but that's just my opinion. It looks like sometime around the new year, give or take a day or two, we might have our next shot at something wintry. So here's to hoping! Yea man November was pretty insane, I have hope also though it's early. Weather wise, its there for sure but the temperature swings just feel the same as they have the past 4 seasons so we will see. I will start getting nervous once mid january arrives and we have had zilch lol, of course its weather one good big perfect track can dump a seasons worth of snow if things come together perfectly ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 12z PGFS was pretty icy and snowy for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 This troll job, courtesy of the 12z GFS-FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I saw that, and that's not even factoring snowfall for the next system that runs through right afterward....IF ONLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 18z killled it. Both GFS and V3 have been swinging back and forth on a good storm from the 24-29th. Problem is, it’s their typical troll that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Something may be lurking around the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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